The government of Indonesia plans to offer the Bontang fuel refinery project to Iran. This refinery, which is targeted to have a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels of oil per day, will be located in Bontang (East Kalimantan). I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja, Director General of Oil & Gas at Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, considers it a positive step to offer the Bontang refinery project to Iran as this nation has showed an interest to develop refineries abroad in a bid to boost its crude exports after international sanctions were lifted in January 2016.

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Indonesia's crude oil output was strong in the first quarter of 2016 on the back of higher-than-expected oil production of several oil companies in Indonesia. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas the nation's oil production totaled 833,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the January-March 2016 period, exceeding the oil lifting target that was set in the 2016 State Budget (830,000 bpd). It also means that the globe's low oil prices at the year-start, touching 12-year lows at around USD $27 per barrel, did not make local oil companies cut back on production rates.

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After a seven-year hiatus Indonesia will rejoin the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a full member in December 2015. A statement on the website of the OPEC states that all members approved reactivating Indonesia’s full membership in the organization. At the next OPEC meeting, scheduled for 4 December 2015 in Vienna (Austria), Indonesia will be formally admitted back into the OPEC.

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Indonesia expects to produce between 800,000 and 830,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2016. This range was agreed during a working meeting between Commission VII (which oversees the country’s energy sector) of the House of Representatives (DPR) and the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. The meeting was held in the context of deliberations on the 2016 State Budget. So far this year, Indonesia’s crude oil output stands at an average of 802,046 bpd (monthly basis). Domestic demand, however, stands at 1.43 million bpd.

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SKK Migas, Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator, announced that oil production in 2013 averaged 825,000 barrels per day (bpd), thus falling short of the target (840,000 bps) set in the State Budget (APBN). Meanwhile, the country's gas production averaged 1,218,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), short of its target (1,240,000 boepd). As a result, total state revenues from the country's oil & gas sector also fell short of the government's target. In 2013, these revenues totaled USD $31.4 billion instead of USD $31.7 billion.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesia rupiah exchange rate in combination with the inability to raise domestic production of crude oil threatens to balloon government subsidy expenditure. Fuel subsidies may increase 20 percent to IDR 252 trillion (USD $20.8 billion) in 2014 as the rupiah currently has about 14 percent less value (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index) than the value assumed in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). The government assumed a rupiah rate of IDR 10,500 per US dollar in the APBN 2014.

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Indonesia is expected to replace the United States as the world's largest importer of oil by 2018, unless the country is able to limit domestic oil consumption or boost the nation's oil production. Recently, Indonesia has put more effort in limiting oil imports as these have caused a widening trade deficit. The trade deficit was at a new record high at USD $5.65 billion in the first seven months of 2013, particularly caused by the country's oil & gas deficit (USD $7.6 billion), while the non-oil & gas sector posted a surplus of USD $1.9 billion.

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To ease pressures on the IDR rupiah, Indonesia's central bank has used about USD $2.0 billion of its foreign exchange reserves to support the currency as the country's continuing trade deficit as well as concerns about the possible increase in price of subsidized fuel in June has caused much uncertainty about the level of inflation in the near future and puts downward pressure on the rupiah. Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell to USD $105.2 billion in late May 2013 from USD $107.3 billion at the end of April.

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Fuel demand in Indonesia already reached 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). However, oil refining capacity only stands around 1.1 million bpd, implying that 43 percent of fuel consumption in Indonesia needs to be imported from abroad. Oil refining capacity today is roughly the same as it was 15 years ago, meaning that there has been limited progress in development of Indonesia's downstream oil industry. Without adding refining capacity, Indonesia is on track to become the world's largest fuel importer within the next decade.

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Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).

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Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?

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General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.

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In order to curb imports of oil, the government of Indonesia intends to stimulate the production of crude palm oil-based biofuel by increasing the mandatory content of fatty acid methyl ester (which is made from palm oil) in biodiesel products from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. Through this policy, the government claims to be able to save up to USD $3 billion as it needs less fuel imports. Fuel imports totaled USD $5.8 billion in the first six months of 2013 and form a major cause for the USD $9.8 billion current account deficit in Q2-2013.

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