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On Monday (08/04) Indonesia Investments released the March 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of March 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
Fitch Ratings, one of the globe's big three credit rating agencies, decided to upgrade Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings (IDR) to BBB (with a stable outlook), from BBB- previously. What influenced Fitch Ratings' decision?
As we approach the year-end, and without the presence of positive triggers, investors seem to engage in profit-taking. Therefore, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index now extended its losing streak to seven straight sessions. Indonesian stocks fell 0.99 percent to 5,111.39 points on Wednesday (21/12), a decline led by consumer staples and financial shares, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 13,459 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The Federal Reserve's recent rate hike still seems to overshadow global investor sentiment.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is hopeful that credit rating agency Standards & Poor's (S&P) will raise Indonesia's credit rating to investment grade. Hope is based on Indonesia's healthier state budget and the higher degree of fiscal credibility (supported by the ongoing tax amnesty program). Out of the big three global credit rating agencies only S&P is yet to assign investment grade status to Indonesia. In June 2016 S&P kept Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+/positive outlook, one notch below investment grade.
Contrary to expectations, Standard & Poor's (S&P), the most conservative among the world's top three credit rating agencies, maintained Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+ with a positive outlook. The BB+ rating is the highest junk level, one notch below investment grade. S&P left the door open for a future upgrade but the Indonesian government will need to enhance its fiscal performance. Issues that block an upgrade are rising budget deficits in the years ahead and the decline in Indonesia's corporate credit quality.
Slowly but surely Indonesia is obtaining the investment grade rating from the world's three key credit rating agencies. Fitch Ratings already reinstated Indonesia's investment grade rating in 2011, a step that was followed by Moody's Investors Service in 2012. Although Standard & Poor's (S&P) has been more careful, there emerged speculation that S&P will assign the investment grade status to Indonesia soon (perhaps in June 2016). Last week, a S&P team visited Indonesia - to study the country's latest policy reforms and developments - and signaled that its assessment is positive.
Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) appreciates the policy reforms that have been conducted by the Indonesian government because these changes lead to more openness as well as to enhanced competitiveness. Apart from cutting costly energy subsidies (and redirecting a large chunk of available funds to infrastructure development) the government also unveiled 12 economic policy packages since September 2015 (while more packages are in the pipeline) that include matters such as tax incentives and deregulation (aimed at boosting investment).
For the first time since October 2014, Indonesia's palm oil exporters will have to pay an export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments as the government's reference CPO price was set at USD $754.10 per ton in May (the level of USD $750 per ton separates taxable from non-taxable shipments). The Indonesian government announced that it will impose a USD $3 per ton tax on CPO exports in May 2016. Palm oil is the key foreign exchange earner for Indonesia in terms of non-mining export products. The country is the world's largest producer and exporter of CPO, followed by Malaysia.
Global ratings agency Fitch Ratings cut its outlook on three Indonesian palm oil companies - Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology (SMART), Ivo Mas Tungkal, and Sawit Mas Sejahtera - from stable to negative. The rating of the three companies was cut to AA (idn) by Fitch Ratings Indonesia. However, an AA (idn) rating still denotes a low probability of default for the company and its bonds. The rating of bonds of SMAR, due in 2017 and 2019, were also cut to AA (idn). The three palm oil companies are owned by Golden Agri Resources, part of the Sinar Mas Group that is controlled by Eka Tjipta Widjaja, one of the richest Indonesians.
New York-based Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, expects demand growth in Indonesia's life and non-life insurance sectors to occur over the medium term on the country's (currently still) low insurance penetration rate, improving risk awareness, and the expanding middle class segment within the rising population of Southeast Asia's largest economy. Meanwhile, the credit rating agency believes Indonesia's car and motorcycle sales will remain under pressure in 2016 due to weak consumer spending.
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Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings announced on 14 March 2019 that it has affirmed Indonesia's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'BBB' with a stable outlook (investment grade level). This decision was particularly based on Indonesia’s favorable gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook and the nation’s small government debt burden (government debt is low at an estimated 29.8 percent of GDP in 2018).
Fitch Ratings, one of the three big global credit rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB-' (investment grade) with a positive outlook. Meanwhile, the issue ratings on Indonesia's senior unsecured foreign- and local-currency bonds and foreign-currency sukuk was also affirmed at 'BBB-'. The country ceiling has been affirmed at 'BBB' and the short-term foreign- and local-currency IDRs at 'F3'. The senior unsecured short-term issues have also been affirmed at 'F3'.
Moody's Investors Service, one of the globe's three big credit rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's Baa3 issuer rating, Baa3 senior unsecured bond ratings, and (P)Baa3 senior unsecured medium term note program rating. However, it also upgraded its credit outlook on Indonesia from "stable" to "positive", implying that Indonesia comes a bit closer to a rating upgrade. Such upgrade would trigger capital inflows (on the back of stronger investor confidence), while the cost of funds would become cheaper for the government when issuing government bonds.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings at 'BBB-' but revised the outlook from 'stable' to 'positive'. The improvement is primarily attributed to Indonesia's low government debt burden and favorable economic growth outlook, while structural reforms (the government's economic policy packages that have been launched since September 2015 as well as the tax amnesty program) are gradually improving the nation's business and investment climate.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB-/stable outlook in May 2016. BBB- is the lowest notch within the investment grade category. In a statement released on Tuesday (24/05) Fitch Ratings expressed that Indonesia's low public debt (at 26.8 percent of gross domestic product), limited risks in the banking sector, and the economic growth outlook at 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 amid global challenges were all factors that supported the decision of the credit rating agency to keep Indonesia on investment grade status.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- (investment grade) with a stable outlook. The country's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating, the senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds, and Islamic certificates (sukuk) were all affirmed at BBB-. Meanwhile, the short-term foreign currency IDR was affirmed at 'F3', the country ceiling at BBB, and the outlook on the long-term IDRs are stable. Through the affirmation Fitch acknowledges Indonesia's ongoing commitment to structural reforms amid recent economic woes.
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, said that its latest annual survey on economic prospects and the business climate in Indonesia indicates an optimistic view. Respondents in the survey, mostly CEOs and Division Heads at financial institutions, companies, government and media, were asked 11 questions about the Indonesian economy, reformation and prospects for the next five years. Andrew Steel, Managing Director Head of Asia Pacific Corporate Ratings Group, presented results of the survey.
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.
Total government debt of Indonesia rose IDR 781 trillion (USD $64.5 billion) between 2009 and 2013 to IDR 2,371.39 trillion (USD $196 billion). This growing outstanding government debt is mainly caused by government loans to finance its State Budgets (APBN) as well as recent sharp rupiah depreciation (as part of this debt is denominated in foreign currencies). In the same period, Indonesia's per capita debt rose from IDR 6.8 million (USD $561) to IDR 8.6 million (USD $710), a 26.4 percent growth.
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