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Today's Headlines Export Ban
Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, may need to scrap its plan to build a USD $500 million smelter in Bahodopi (South Sulawesi) as its strategic Chinese partner, for now, backed away from the project due to falling nickel prices. Initially both sides agreed to form a joint venture for the establishment of the smelter.
The management of gold and copper miner Freeport Indonesia is optimistic that negotiations with the central government will be completed before the Idul Fitri celebrations in the last week of June 2017. If an agreement is reached, then the case will not require arbitration. Both parties are negotiating over a contract dispute that also prompted the subsidiary of the United States-based mining giant Freeport-McMoRan to wind down operations (and fire staff) at its Grasberg mine in Papua.
The nickel price is expected to remain under pressure up to (at least) the second half of 2018 due to the structural oversupply in the world market. So far this year the nickel price has fallen 9.38 percent to USD $9,080 per ton (London Metal Exchange). Analysts of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say nickel - used in stainless steel - is the worst-performing metal so far this year.
Although Indonesian nickel miner Vale Indonesia saw its sales rise by 32.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $143.95 million in the first quarter of 2017 supported by the 24.1 percent (y/y) growth in the (average) nickel matte price in Q1-2017, the company is pessimistic about the direction of the nickel price in the remainder of 2017 as inventory levels remain high on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange.
The dispute between Freeport Indonesia and the Indonesian government may escalate now the former said it considers to seek international arbitration over the government's alleged breaching and violation of the existing Contract of Work (CoW) between both sides. Ever since the passing of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law) there has been a high degree of uncertainty in Indonesia's mining sector.
A coalition of civil society groups is ready to challenge Indonesia's new mining rules at the Supreme Court next week, specifically those rules that impact negatively on the longstanding Contracts of Work (Kontrak Karya) as well as the (re-)opening of nickel ore and bauxite exports. Late last week, the Indonesian government announced to ease the controversial ban on exports of mineral ore. The government was immediately criticized for this "flip-flop policy". The move could flood global markets and put pressure on prices.
Entrepreneurs in Indonesia urge the central government to provide clarity about the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals that is set to be implemented on 12 January 2017, provided the government will not alter its policy. Initially, the full ban would be introduced on 12 January 2014 in an effort to boost the downstream mining industries (hence becoming an exporter of mining products that are positioned higher in the value chain rather than remaining dependent on raw materials that are very vulnerable to volatile price movements).
Indonesian newspaper Bisnis Indonesia printed an interesting interview with Vice President Jusuf Kalla on Wednesday (19/10). Kalla is one of the few political veterans of Indonesia, having been born during the Japanese occupancy of the Dutch East Indies, before Indonesia existed. He was VP under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004-2009), leader of Golkar, Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare (2001-2004), and Minister of Trade & Industry (1999-2000). Before he became fully committed to politics he developed a successful business empire.
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Luhut Pandjaitan informed local media that the government of Indonesia may allow more time for the nation's miners to build smelting facilities. Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining originally banned mineral ore exports from Indonesia by January 2014 (forcing miners to process the material domestically into value-added products first). However, due to the lack of adequate smelting facilities this ban was delayed by three years (January 2017).
Business activities at Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), one of Indonesia’s largest copper miners, could be disrupted as the subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp is yet to obtain a recommendation letter (from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry) to renew its 6-month copper concentrate export permit (which expired on 20 May 2016). The recommendation from the Energy Ministry is needed to obtain the export permit from Indonesia's Trade Ministry.
Latest Columns Export Ban
After the word spread that the government of Indonesia will reevaluate its export ban on mineral ore, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced it will soon open room for exports of iron sand (a type of sand with heavy concentrations of iron). Bambang Gatot, Director General for Coal and Minerals at the Energy Ministry, said exporters will have to pay export duties but declined to inform about the exact amount. He did say, however, that the mechanism will be similar to the export duty mechanism used for other concentrate exports (including copper) in the "post-New Mining Law era".
One of the weak points of Indonesia, one that seriously hurts the country’s investment climate as well as foreign confidence, is regulatory uncertainty. In 2009 the government of Indonesia introduced Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law) which caused a shock in Indonesia’s natural resources sector as it includes several new policies that make investors think twice before investing in Indonesia as the consequences of these new policies are far-reaching. However, a possible new amendment to the law causes new concern.
At the start of 2014 Indonesia introduced its long-planned export ban on raw mineral ores in a bid to strengthen the domestic economy by reducing its dependence on raw commodity exports and instead forcing miners to process their raw ores domestically before exporting is allowed. Being an important global supplier of certain ores, this new Indonesian rule (stipulated by Law No.4/2009 on Coal and Mineral Mining) has a considerable impact on global markets and prices, one of which being nickel.
Chinese ferronickel producer Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry plans to invest USD $5 billion for the establishment of a nickel smelter, power plant and a port. Andrew Zhu, President Director at Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry said that these facilities will be built on a 500-hectares estate in Konawe (Southeast Sulawesi). Zhu said that the nickel smelter development involves three phases. In the first phase, which should be finished by the end of 2015, the smelter will have an annual ferronickel production capacity of 600,000 tons.
The current account deficit of Indonesia eased to USD $6.84 billion, or 3.07 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014 (down from USD $8.69 billion, or 4.07 percent of GDP in the previous quarter). This improvement was mainly supported by a solid surplus in the country’s non-oil & gas sector, partly the result of the US economic recovery as well as resumed copper concentrate exports by Freeport Indonesia and Newmont Nusa Tenggara (after successful mining contract renegotiations).
Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), subsidiary of US-based mining company Newmont Mining Corp, has received a permit from the Indonesian government to export 350,000 metric tons of copper concentrate in the next three years. Three weeks ago it became known that both parties agreed on the content of a renegotiation package after an eight-month dispute over Indonesia’s mineral ore export ban, implemented on 12 January 2014 (part of the New Mining Law). In the remainder of 2014, the company is expected to export 160,000 tons.
The global nickel price declined 5.1 percent on Tuesday (09/09) after it became known that the Philippines would not implement a ban on exports of this commodity yet. Similar to Indonesia, the Philippines was preparing to implement a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals in an attempt to boost revenues (by exporting mining products with added value). However, it may take seven years before such a policy is implemented. This implies that the occurrence of a possible shortage of nickel on the global market in the coming years has diminished.
Reportedly, Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) will not seek international arbitration at the Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) in Washington (USA). Previously, the miner threatened to file for arbitration in an attempt to force the Indonesian government to cancel the recently introduced ban on exports of unprocessed minerals as well as to abort higher export duties. NNT is a subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corporation that operates the Batu Hijau mine, an open pit copper and gold mine in Sumbawa.
Subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, Freeport Indonesia, decided to build its copper smelter in Gresik (East Java) as infrastructure around this regency makes it easier to transport its mining products for export purposes. The other location that Freeport was considering was in Papua, near its mining site the Grasberg mine, the world’s largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. However, infrastructure in Papua (one of the poorest regions in Indonesia) is still underdeveloped.
Freeport Indonesia, subsidiary of US-based natural resources company Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, is optimistic that the Indonesian government will extend the company’s contract to operate the Grasberg mine in Papua (eastern Indonesia). This mine is the world’s largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. The current contract between the Indonesian government and Freeport Indonesia expires in 2021. However, Freeport is currently in need of some certainty before investing a large amount on mining operations and smelting facilities.
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