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Traders expect that Indonesia’s coffee production will be negatively affected by the El Nino weather phenomenon. Due to concern about Indonesia’s 2016/2017 season robusta output, European roasters are reportedly set to raise robusta imports from Vietnam, the world’s top robusta grower, or low-quality arabica from Brazil, the world’s top arabica grower.
In an effort to boost the domestic consumer goods industry, the Indonesian government today (23/07) raised import tariffs for food, cars, clothes and many other consumer goods. This seemingly protectionist measure is aimed at reducing Indonesia’s dependence on imported goods as well as to boost the country’s general economic growth, which has slowed to a six-year low of 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, by supporting development of the local consumer goods industry.
Indonesian coffee shipments to Europe have risen on the back of the weak rupiah and larger coffee harvest. Robusta bean exports from the island of Sumatra grew 22.1 percent year-on-year in June 2015. Meanwhile, European traders expect these strong shipments to continue into July. The Indonesian rupiah is the worst-performing emerging currency in Asia tracked by Bloomberg, weakening about 7.2 percent against the US dollar so far this year. The positive side of a weak currency is that the country's exports become more attractive.
Due to the prolonged dry season impacting on harvests, coffee production in Indonesia as well as coffee exports from the world’s third-largest coffee grower continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Indonesia’s coffee output plunged 23 percent to 540 million kilograms in the period April 2014 to March 2015 compared to the same period in the previous year, while Indonesia’s coffee exports declined to 336 million kilograms from 612 million kilograms over the same period.
It is increasingly believed that the El Nino weather phenomenon will hit Indonesia in the next couple of months. Over the past weeks reports already surfaced about unusual dry weather impacting negatively on harvests of agricultural commodities in parts of Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, dry weather traditionally lasts from May to August. However, El Nino may cause warmer conditions and extending these into September hence affecting output in the peak harvest season. This will cut agricultural output and provide inflationary pressure.
In the past couple of weeks unusually dry weather in several parts of Southeast Asia has led to expectation that harvests of agricultural commodities in the region will be disappointing. More and more weather forecasters are convinced that the El Nino weather phenomenon (i.e. periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean) is to return this year causing droughts in the key agricultural-producing countries.
The Central Java branch of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters (AEKI) said that demand for luwak coffee (Indonesian: kopi luwak), an Indonesia specialty coffee and known as the world’s most expensive coffee, has been in decline since 2013. Luwak coffee is an extraordinary type of coffee as it is brewed from beans that have passed through the digestive system of the Asian palm civet cat. This labour-intensive production process and its scarcity on the global market cause luwak coffee’s expensive price.
On 3 May 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on Indonesia’s Q1-2015 economic growth, April inflation, the Trans-Sumatra toll road, foreign and domestic investment, the coal industry, the coffee industry, and more.
Being one of the world’s leading producers of coffee beans, Indonesia may benefit from climate change that causes an eastward shift in the global coffee production over the next couple of decades. According to new research conducted by Colombia-based International Center for Tropical Agriculture, the global supply of arabica beans is threatened due to a two degrees Celsius temperature increase as well as changing rain patterns. Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer, will be affected strongly by this climate change.
Indonesia’s coffee production may hit a record high in the 2015-2016 harvest season according to a Bloomberg survey. The survey suggests that Indonesian coffee output is to rise 18 percent (y/y) to 650,000 metric tons from 550,000 tons in the previous season. Reason for a good coffee harvest is favorable weather (rain) having boosted yields. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest producer and exporter of robusta. Also in other parts of the world coffee production is estimated to increase, hence potentially placing pressure on prices.
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Indonesia's Agriculture Ministry expects the nation's coffee production to reach 674,636 tons in 2018, up a modest 0.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) from Indonesia's coffee production in 2017 (668,677 tons). If the ministry's estimate is correct, then it would be the second straight year of meager coffee production growth. From 2016 (when Indonesia produced a total of 663,871 tons) to 2017, growth of coffee production reached 0.7 percent (y/y).
The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Indonesia's coffee exports to fall in the 2016/2017 season due to rising domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia and low productivity. In the January-May 2016 period coffee exports from Indonesia fell 33.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 117,000 metric tons from 177,000 metric tons in the same period one year earlier. Indonesia's main coffee export destination markets are the USA, European Union (EU), and Japan.
Coffee chain operator Starbucks, which is active in Indonesia via a partnership between Starbucks Coffee International and local Indonesian retail company Mitra Adiperkasa, launched its Starbucks Mobile App in Indonesia on Friday (18/11). Customers can now pay through this mobile app in more than 260 Starbucks stores across Southeast Asia's largest economy. A free Earl Grey Jelly Frappuccino is available to those who use the mobile app through November 2016.
Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.
Brazil has been in the spotlight as recent developments in this country influence global prices of coffee and sugar. There are currently two factors at play in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee and sugar supplier. First, ongoing drought has sharply pushed up the price of coffee. Secondly, the market is hopeful that reform-minded candidate Aécio Neves wins the Brazilian presidential election in the second voting round. This has given Brazil’s currency (real) a boost against the US dollar, and thus impacted on prices of coffee and sugar.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is increasingly convinced that the world needs to prepare for a new El Niño cycle. According to the institution, the impact of this new cycle will be felt starting from July 2014 and may continue through the winter. Also the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US Climate Prediction Center stated that chances of a new El Niño cycle in 2014 are becoming higher, although it is too early to provide an indication of this year's strength of the weather phenomenon.
Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.
