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19 October 2020 (closed)
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Today's Headlines State Budget
It is assumed by many that the Indonesian government does not make efficient use of the annual state budgets. This is also the reason why Indonesian President Joko Widodo stated recently that one of his key ambitions for the next five years is to make more efficient use of the state budget (“each rupiah of the state budget needs to be used productively”).
There are a couple of interesting points when studying the government's proposed 2019 State Budget (that was unveiled by Indonesian President Joko Widodo on 16 August 2018). Firstly, and this is a usual phenomenon when legislative and presidential elections are around the corner, the proposed budget is characterized by a high degree of "populism". Secondly, the macroeconomic assumptions of the government seem much more realistic than usual.
In a speech in front of the House of Representatives (DPR) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the government targets an economic growth rate in the range of 5.4 - 5.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) for 2019. She said this range is a realistic one. Moreover, growth should be inclusive and equal, meaning all people across the nation should see an increase in their welfare. The government will give special focus on the acceleration of growth in eastern Indonesia, border areas, the outermost areas and underdeveloped regions.
The Indonesian government emphasizes that the higher-than-estimated crude oil price will not destabilize the 2018 state budget. While the government set its Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) at USD $48 per barrel in the 2018 state budget, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent have already surpassed the USD $60 per barrel level, significantly higher than the assumption of the Indonesian government and therefore triggering some concern over rising energy subsidies.
The government of Indonesia needs to keep spending on energy subsidies under control. Looking at the latest data, released by the Finance Ministry on Wednesday (03/01), the government spent IDR 7.4 trillion (approx. USD $573 million) more on energy subsidies (fuel, LPN and electricity) throughout 2017 than it had targeted in the (revised) 2017 state budget.
Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) approved the government's proposed 2018 state budget bill in a plenary session on Wednesday (25/10), hence turning the bill into law. Taufik Kurniawan, Deputy House Speaker, announced this decision earlier today.
Traditionally, the Indonesian President reveals the government's proposal for next year's state budget one day ahead of the Independence Day celebrations. This time, President Joko Widodo announced a rather ambitious target in terms of economic growth. The central government proposes the GDP growth target figure for 2018 at 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y). The budget proposal requires approval from the House of Representatives (DPR).
According to Ken Dwijugiasteadi, Taxation Director General at Indonesia's Finance Ministry, a tax-to-GDP ratio at 11 percent would be realistic for Indonesia's 2018 state budget (but would still require big efforts from the government). In a plenary session of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) earlier this week, regarding the 2018 state budget proposals, some called for a sharp increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13 percent. However, considering the expected tax revenue growth, this ratio would be highly unrealistic.
In the 2017 State Budget the Indonesian government allocated IDR 387.3 trillion (approx. USD $29.8 billion) for infrastructure development, up from IDR 317.1 trillion in the 2016 budget. Since Joko Widodo became Indonesian President in 2014 the infrastructure budget of Indonesia has been raised rapidly, showing that Widodo kept his pledge and is serious about constructing roads, bridges, airports, harbors, and railways in an effort to enhance connectivity in Southeast Asia's largest economy, reduce logistics costs and enforce the multiplier effect.
Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) approved the central government's 2017 State Budget (APBN 2017) in a plenary session on Wednesday (26/10). This budget is considered realistic with the economic growth target set at 5.1 percent (y/y), government spending at IDR 2,080.5 trillion (approx. USD $160 billion), government revenue at IDR 1,750.3 trillion (approx. USD $135 billion), and the budget deficit at 2.41 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Latest Columns State Budget
After Indonesia's outlook for economic growth in 2014 was revised down from 6 percent to between 5.8 and 6 percent, the government also revised targets of poverty and unemployment reduction. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the government set the targeted poverty rate at 9.0 to 10.5 percent of Indonesia's total population. However, the government revised down this poverty rate to between 10.54 and 10.75 percent, which is also far below the target that was set in the National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) at 8 to 10 percent.
Only 50 days since the start of the fiscal year 2014 have passed and the government has already shown that it is not convinced to meet targets of basic macroeconomic assumptions set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). Therefore, the Indonesian government has lowered the outlook for all basic macroeconomic assumptions in the 2014 State Budget. On Thursday 19 February 2014, the government formally presented the downward revision of economic targets in the State Budget to the House of Representitative's Budget Agency.
Indonesia's poverty rate is expected to jump to between 11.13 and 11.37 percent of the total Indonesian population in 2013 due to inflationary pressures. Inflation may reach 9.2 percent at the year end. The new poverty forecast is significantly higher than the government's original target of 9.5 to 10.5 percent as set in the country's State Budget. The revised forecast was presented by Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas). Poverty basket inflation is expected to rise accordingly.
The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).
Realization of Indonesia's budget deficit in the first half of 2013 reached IDR 54.5 trillion (USD $5.5 billion) or 0.58 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The figure is still well below the target that is set in the revised state budget of 2013, namely IDR 224.2 trillion (USD $22.6 billion) or 2.38 percent of GDP. As a percentage of GDP, the outcome of the deficit in the first half of 2013 was lower than that in the first half of 2012. However, if we compare it with the years 2010 and 2011, the budget deficit in the first half of 2013 is high.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.
Last week, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) rebounded 303 points to 4,818.90. After weeks of foreign outflows, Indonesia finally experienced capital inflows again during the last two days of the week. For example, on Friday (28/06) foreigners bought IDR 960 billion (USD $97.0 million) more Indonesian shares than they sold. However, considering the full week, foreigners still recorded net selling amounting to IDR 1.02 trillion (USD $103 million). Do these last couple of days tell us that the bearish market is over? Lets take a closer look.
It is official. As of Saturday 22 June 2013, after months of uncertainty and speculation, the price of Indonesia's subsidized fuel has finally been raised. Starting from 0.00 am (midnight) on Saturday, all Indonesians have to pay a higher price of gasoline and diesel. Gasoline has been raised by 44 percent to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.66) and diesel by 22 percent to IDR 5,500 (USD $0.56) per liter. The minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, made the announcement on late Friday evening, after which the hike took effect immediately.
Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.
In the revised state budget, Indonesia's government has lowered its forecast for tax revenue in 2013. Originally, the government expected to receive IDR 1,193.0 trillion (USD $122.4 billion) but the figure has been tuned down to IDR 1,139.3 trillion (USD $116.9 billion). Minister of Finance Chatib Basri stated that the forecast for tax revenue has been revised down by IDR 55.1 trillion, while the figure for export duties has been raised by IDR 1.4 trillion. Indonesia's tax-to-GDP ratio in 2013 has been changed to 12.11 percent from 12.87 percent.
