According to Indonesia’s state news agency Antara, the United States (US) have become the largest export destination for Indonesian batik. Approximately 37 percent of Indonesia’s total batik export is shipped to the US, the world’s largest economy. Batik is a traditional textile produced by using a technique of wax-resist dyeing applied to cloth. Although several other countries also produce batik, the most well-known batik originates from the island of Java (batik was recognized as a World Cultural Heritage by the UNESCO in 2009).

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As the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate on Thursday (04/06), touching a 17-year low, a central bank official tried to ease concerns by stating that Bank Indonesia is always in the foreign exchange and bond markets to monitor movements and ease volatility. On Thursday morning the bond yield, which has been rising since Friday (29/05), was 8.198 percent. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah had depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 13,245 by 11:10 am local Jakarta time.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah improved on the last trading day of the week supported by moderately rising indices on Wall Street on Thursday (07/05), which was in stark contrast to heavy selling that occurred one day earlier after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s statement that US stock prices may be overvalued. Meanwhile, weak trade data from China could a reason for policymakers to provide more stimulus. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index climbed 0.62 percent to 5,182.21 points on Friday (08/05).

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Despite slowing economic growth in China (the world’s second-largest economy), the World Bank forecasts higher economic growth for emerging markets in 2015 driven by a decline in global oil prices, a stronger US economy, and continued low global interest rates. The World Bank expects to see a 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate in emerging markets this year, up from an estimated 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2014. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow 3 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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In its latest report entitled ‘Growth Hesitates in Developing Asia’ (which is a supplement to the ‘Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update’), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) slightly downgraded economic growth in developing Asia to 6.1 percent (y/y) in 2014 from its September estimate of 6.2 percent (y/y). Despite slowing momentum the ADB believes that current low oil prices constitute a great opportunity for Asian countries to conduct structural reforms as many of these countries are net oil importers.

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Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and CPO derived products from Indonesia in the first nine months of 2014 only reached 15 million tons, down 1.75 percent from the same period last year. The main cause for this disappointing performance is slowing economic growth in China and India resulting in reduced palm oil demand from these two giant economies. As a result of weak global demand, the CPO price has fallen to an average price of USD $712 per ton in September 2014, down 5.4 percent from the previous month.

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Indonesia and four other countries have filed an official complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) over a recent new law in Australia. This law (‘2011 Tobacco Plain Packaging Act’), in effect since 1 December 2012, requires the removal of all branding (such as colours, imagery, and corporate logos) on cigarette packages. Indonesia’s Trade Ministry believes that the law violates several WTO rules, such as an agreement on trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights and an agreement on the technical barriers to trade.

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Despite some concern about inflation, the US Federal Reserve stated that it will keep interest rates close to zero. The central bank announced this after the two-day policy meeting (Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC). Ahead of the meeting, market participants had increasingly speculated about the chance of sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes as US economic data has generally been positive (including 4.2 percent GDP growth in the second quarter and weekly jobless claims that declined to near record lows).

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Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 1.26 percent to IDR 11,971 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (15/09). Indonesia’s currency depreciated sharply ahead of the FOMC’s two-day meeting as investors are awaiting for the results on Thursday. As August US retail sales rose at the fastest pace in four months, a winding down of the US bond-buying program and looming US interest rates have resulted in a strong US dollar.

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The Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia expects that domestic production of palm oil in 2014 will decline 10 percent (roughly two million tons) from last year due to the possible impact of the El Niño weather cycle in the second half of this year. El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs once every 5 years on average and involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America. This can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean, impacting on the global commodities market.

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For the third day in a row, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) made a strong upward jump on Friday (28/06). Supported by strong American and European stock indices on the previous trading day, the IHSG rose 3.06 percent to 4,818.90 points. American and European indices mostly rose on Thursday (27/06) due to various positive macroeconomic data from the USA. These economic data translated into the good performance of the IHSG and other Asian stock indices on Friday. All sectoral indices of the IHSG were reported to have grown.

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Stock indices in the United States were up for the third day in a row on Thursday (27/06). Main reason for this upward trend are various positive macroeconomic figures from the USA. The number of homes under contract to be sold (excluding new construction) grew 6.7 percent in May, while analysts had forecast growth of about 1 percent from the previous month. Personal spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the domestic economy, grew 0.3 percent in May, while personal income rose 0.5 percent.

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Asian stock indices were up on Thursday (27/06) after economic growth of the United States in Q1-2013 was lower than expected. Paradoxically, this had a positive effect on global stock indices as speculation arose that the disappointing growth rate would convince the Federal Reserve to continue its quantitative easing program. It also had a good affect on Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG), which gained 1.92 percent and ended at 4,675.75. The index was well on its way to close a gap (at 4,743-4,801) but was blocked by mixed European openings.

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It has been a long time since we have reported a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). But finally on Wednesday (26/06) Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) made a great jump upwards, supported by American and European stock indices that were up on Tuesday (25/06) due to positive economic data from the United States. Investors used this positive context to engage in stock trading. Moreover, Indonesia's stocks are currently - technically speaking - cheap and thus attractive.

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Apparently the stormy and dark clouds above the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are still present. Most foreign investors continued to sell their Indonesian assets, resulting in another day of losses for the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG). Not even clarity about the price hike of subsidized fuel could ease investors' minds (fuel prices were increased last Saturday after months of speculation). For the last two weeks negative sentiments have coloured the stock exchange and profit taking has been the result.

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Similar to the Jakarta Great Sale event, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) trades its stocks at low prices as foreign investors have sold large parts of their Indonesian stock assets in recent weeks. Last week, foreign investors sold IDR 4.9 trillion (about USD $492.4 million), meaning that this year's accumulated foreign net buying has evaporated. Will these sales continue? Yes, I think so. Foreigners have invested about IDR 144 trillion in Indonesia's capital markets between 2007 and Q1-2013. As such, there is still plenty to sell.

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On Friday's trading day (21/06), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was still under the spell of the unrest that emerged because of Ben Bernanke's announcement of a possible stop to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program in 2014. Moreover, weak manufacturing data from China also continued to cause negative market sentiments. The IHSG fell 2.48 percent to 4,515.37, its lowest closing since 11 February 2013. Foreign investors sold about USD $228 million more stocks than they bought.

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On Wednesday (19/06), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) posted a 0.70 percent fall to the level of 4,806.66 points as foreign investors continued to sell more Indonesian stocks than they bought. Moreover, the IHSG did not receive any support from the Asian region, where most stock indices weakened. Similar to Europe and the United States, Asian markets were eagerly waiting for results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening and thus mostly refrained from trading during the day.

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Despite weakening stock indices in the United States on Friday (14/06), most Asian indices were up on Monday (17/06) and impacted positively on the main index of Indonesia (IHSG). On the other hand, market participants are still waiting for the outcome of the plenary session of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) regarding the approval of the increase in the price of subsidized fuel. The market is speculating that the price increase will be approved even though a number of political parties oppose the plan.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) moved wildly last week. During the first two days of the week, the index fell to 4,609.95 points, which is considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. However, on the last trading day of the week (14/06), a 3.32 percent recovery occurred. Generally, it were domestic market participants that supported the IHSG. Foreign market participants continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios. Total foreign selling totaled IDR 9 trillion (USD $910.4 million) last week.

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