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Most stocks in Asia were in the red zone on Wednesday morning (21/06) as oil entered bear territory after prices continued to tumble (with Brent at seven-month lows) due to rising oil output in Libya and Nigeria. Meanwhile, Chinese shares seem to enjoy limited support only from the decision of US index provider MSCI to add China's mainland stocks to one of its key benchmarks.
The coal price is expected to rise in the remainder of this year as China seems eager to limit domestic coal output, while global coal demand is predicted to rise in the second half of 2017. After a steep decline in May, coal prices have been recovering in June. So far this month, coal prices rallied around 10 percent to slightly above USD $80 per ton (Newcastle index, July contracts).
Indonesia is known as the world's largest archipelago. However, local authorities do not exactly know how many islands Indonesia actually has. Back in 1996 the central government made a rough estimate of 17,500. However, rising concerns about illegal fishery and radical Islam as well as growth of protectionism (the battle for natural resources) has made the Indonesian government eager to turn the rough estimate into precise knowledge. However, this will not be an easy undertaking.
Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.
Players in Indonesia's footwear industry are concerned about the sharp growth of imports of footwear (shoe) products into Indonesia, by far outpacing growth of footwear exports. Data released by the Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) show footwear imports into Indonesia rose 17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, while over the past two years exports of footwear products were recorded in the range of 3 - 4 percent (y/y).
Indonesian stocks continue to expand into record high territory. On Wednesday (05/04) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index gained 0.45 percent to close at 5,676.98 points, a fresh new record high position. Indonesia's main stock index is currently "hot" due to several internal and external factors. However, a new report released by Morgan Stanley may make investors a bit cautious as valuations for Indonesian stocks have been rising sharply recently.
Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), is concerned about the zero percent import duty policy (applied per 2018) for Chinese ceramics that are shipped into Indonesia. This policy could lead to massive ceramic imports from China and encourage the deindustrialization in Indonesia's ceramic sector.
Indonesia's exports of footwear to the United States (USA) are expected to reach the value of USD $1.5 billion in 2017, up 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) from USD $1.34 billion last year. This increase is expected to come on the back of US President Donald Trump's eagerness to limit imports from China by introducing higher tariffs. This policy should now open up opportunities for Indonesian footwear exporters.
After Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech late last week, markets are increasingly expecting to see a US interest rate hike this month. In her speech in Chicago on Friday (03/03), Yellen said the Fed will adjust its monetary policy (specifically the fed funds rate) in case US employment and inflation continue to evolve in line with the Fed's expectations. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017 and therefore it is believed only disastrous US labor market data can block an interest rate hike this month.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
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Contrary to most Asian indices, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to post a gain on Thursday (07/11). The IHSG seemed to follow the upward movement of Wall Street on the previous day (06/11) after a number of Federal Reserve officials stated to support the continuation of the Fed's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (quantitative easing). Despite continued foreign net selling, the IHSG index rose 0.82 percent to 4,486.11 points as domestic purchases offset foreign selling.
Last week, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) weakened. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia was affected by negative market sentiments brought on by domestic factors. Most importantly, the large-scale demonstrations across Indonesia by Indonesian workers who demanded for higher minimum wages as annual inflation has surged since June 2013 after prices of subsidized fuels were raised. These demands, however, jeopardize the attractiveness of Indonesia's investment climate.
General Motors Company (GM), the American multinational holding corporation that engages in the automotive industry, aims to expand its partnership with China's SAIC Motor Corp by joining hands to enhance business activities in Indonesia. Recently, speculation emerged that both companies were drifting apart. However, both camps claim that the relationship has never been better. In fact, GM China and SAIC are opening four new plants in China which will add 1 million cars (per year) to the current production capacity of 3 million vehicles.
Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department within the International Monetary Fund (IMF), conducted a media roundtable in Tokyo today (30/10) in which he outlined the IMF's view on the economy of Asia. Asia will remain the global growth leader, although the IMF has lowered growth forecasts. Both tighter global liquidity and homegrown structural impediments will weigh on growth, but for most economies a gradual pickup in exports to advanced economies and resilient domestic demand should help support growth.
Although at the start of the day the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) went into red territory, it rebounded and managed to gain 1.06 percent to 4,594.85 points at the end of Thursdays' trading day (24/10). Factors that positively influenced the IHSG were net foreign buying of Indonesian stocks and a number of corporate earnings reports that met investors' expectation. These included various property companies such as Sentul City and Modernland Realty as well as a number of banks. The rupiah, on the other hand, depreciated again.
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rebounded on Thursday's trading day (17/10), supported by good news from the United States where finally an agreement was reached regarding the US debt ceiling. This agreement brought positive market sentiments on Asian stock markets, including the IHSG which rose 0.59% to 4,518.93 points. Moreover, Indonesia's minister of Economy Hatta Rajasa stated that Indonesia had not been significantly impacted by the US shutdown issue and this statement also managed to ease investors' concerns.
Softer than expected economic activity in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India and jitters over the United States (US) quantitative easing (QE) program will weigh on Asia and the Pacific’s growth prospects in the near term, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. “Asia and the Pacific's 2013 growth will come in below earlier projections due to more moderate activity in the region’s two largest economies and effects of QE nervousness,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee.
Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) extended its downward movement on Monday (23/09) as investors continued to look for profits after the index had risen sharply following the announcement that the US quantitative easing program will not be ended yet. Pressures on the IHSG were intensified by the depreciating rupiah and the weakening of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (which was partly brought on by a typhoon). Despite foreign investors being net buyers of Indonesian stocks, the IHSG fell 0.46 percent to 4,562.86 points.
After a strong performance yesterday, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell 0.10 percent to 4,517.62 points on Tuesday (17/09). Part of the investor community grabbed their chance to engage in profit taking after yesterday's gain but most investors are careful and reluctant to make any major decision prior to the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (17-18 September). It is expected that after this meeting there will be more clarity about the future of the Fed's quantitative easing program.
Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) climbed 7.3 percent to end at 4,375.53 on Friday (13/09). This growth is remarkable as it remains unknown what the Federal Reserve will do with its quantitative easing program (QE3). The next Fed meeting - scheduled for 17-18 September - is expected to provide more clarity regarding this matter. Positive sentiments that lifted the IHSG were Indonesia's slightly increased foreign exchange reserves, its stable rupiah after another BI rate hike, and the Bilateral Swap Deals (BSA) with Japan and China.
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