Indonesian assets produced a strong finish on Friday (20/11). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah both strengthened considerably on increased certainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, while China announced it implemented more measures to encourage economic growth, giving rise to a stronger yuan (supporting stronger emerging currencies in Asia). Indonesian stocks rose 0.94 percent to 4,561.33 points, while the rupiah appreciated 1.10 percent to IDR 13,623 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Shares in Asia are expected to be under some pressure today as crude oil prices slid 2.9 percent overnight after the American Petroleum Institute released a report that stated US supplies grew unexpectedly by 6.3 million barrels. Other commodity prices were also down after the release of downbeat industrial output data from China on Wednesday. However, with China's positive October retail sales (posting the strongest gain of the year) there are few chances of seeing new massive stimulus from Chinese authorities. As such 'bad news' is no 'good news'.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Most stock indices in Asia fell on Tuesday's trading day (10/11) on concern that China's stalling economy negatively impacts on the pace of global economic growth, while markets are also bracing for a looming US interest rate hike before the year-end. Moreover, sentiments in Southeast Asia are not positive as the majority of Q3-2015 earnings reports have been unfavorable. Combined, it triggers a flight to safer haven assets. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.08 percent to 4,451.05 points.

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With a staggering 271,000 jobs added to the US economy in October, exceeding forecasts by a big margin, while the US unemployment rate eased to 5.0 percent, the majority of analysts and market participants now expect to see a 25 basis points Fed Fund Rate hike in December (markets are currently pricing in a 70 percent chance of a December US rate hike). Meanwhile, trade data from China underscore the persistent economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. What are the effects of these issues on Indonesian assets?

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Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed after opening on Monday (09/11). While, Japanese shares touched a fresh 2.5 month high on a weaker yen and Chinese shares went up (despite disappointing trade data), shares in Indonesia, South Korea and Australia were down. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell approximately 0.50 percent after opening on Monday, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.83 percent to IDR 13,676 per US dollar by 09:16 am local Jakarta time.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are feeling the negative impact of news from the USA. Both Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said a Fed Fund Rate hike in December is a "live possibility" amid low US employment, continued GDP growth and confidence that inflation will rise to the US central bank's target range. As a result of these remarks gold dropped to a one-month low, stocks declined, while bond yields and the US dollar were pushed higher.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was one of the few Asian indices that bucked the trend on today's trading day (02/11). Whereas most Asian indices, led by Japanese shares, fell on concern about persistent manufacturing contraction in China, the Jakarta Composite Index managed to rise 0.22 percent to 4,464.96 points. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped and the US dollar extended losses against most emerging market currencies.

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Most Asian stock indices opened lower on the first trading day of the week on persistent concern about China's economy. Chinese authorities announced that the country's official October manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8 (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction), unchanged from the preceding month and below analysts' consensus of 50.1. Concern about sluggish manufacturing in China caused falling stock indices. Japanese shares were affected the most.

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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U.S. stock markets continue to hover near record levels as trade policy conversations between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping define the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading just shy of 26,000, which is a psychological level that is often closely-watched by the financial markets.

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Indonesia on Sunday (06/05) for a two-day visit. Part of the visit was a meet up with Indonesian President Joko Widodo (at the Presidential Palace in Bogor) to discuss bilateral trade and investment. Key points on the agenda were the strengthening of trade between both nations and enhanced cooperation on infrastructure development projects in Indonesia, including dams and railways.

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Concerns over a trade war are rising as the European Union (EU) plans to impose a 25 percent retaliatory import tariff on various US products, ranging from clothes to motorcycles, if US President Donald Trump indeed goes ahead with his plan to impose a 25 percent import tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports.

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Several negative sentiments are putting pressure on the crude palm oil (CPO) price in the first week of March 2018. These sentiments are expected to continue pushing downward pressure on the CPO price in the remainder of this week. On Monday (05/03) the CPO price on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (May 2018 shipments) fell 0.28 percent to 2,467 ringgit per metric ton. Compared to one week earlier, the price has now declined 2.91 percent.

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The Consulate General of Indonesia in Guangzhou (China) said Indonesia's coffee exports to China reached USD $34.1 million in the January-September 2017 period, hence Indonesia now ranks second in terms of biggest coffee exporters to China. Vietnam ranks first, by a distance, with a coffee export value of USD $368.8 million in the same period.

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Despite the suicide bombs attack in Jakarta on Wednesday evening (24/05) that killed 3 police officers (and the two militants) at a Jakarta bus station, the Jakarta Composite Index rose after opening on Friday (26/05), while the rupiah only weakened slightly against the US dollar (Thursday was a public holiday). It is yet another example of the fact that markets around the globe have become used to the existence of militant attacks. Particularly a relatively small attack will not lead to any negative sentiments.

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Now the United States - under the Donald Trump administration - are focused on their "America First" policy, China is able to increase its influence in the Asian region. This was apparent at the 30th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on April 26-29 at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City where regional leaders expressed their support for the denuclearization of North Korea but were reluctant to discuss the tensions around the South China Sea.

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As promised US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an ambitious free trade deal that was signed in October 2015 (after five years of negotiating) and had created the world's largest free trade area (covering 12 countries and 40 percent of global trade). Trump's move to withdraw the USA from the TPP implies that he distances the USA from its Asian allies and gives China the opportunity to fill in the empty space that is left by America.

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Over the past couple of weeks public outcry ensued in Indonesia due to rumors (a hoax) that said there are currently about ten million workers from China in Indonesia, implying these immigrants are (potentially) "stealing" jobs from the local population. Xenophobia and nationalist sentiments are no strangers to Indonesia, a country that faced a long colonial period, and therefore this hoax easily ignited anxiety among (part of) the Indonesian people. But how many foreigners are currently actually working in Indonesia?

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