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Today's Headlines China

  • The Economy of Indonesia More Promising in 2017

    The Economy of Indonesia More Promising in 2017

    Indonesia is expected to end the prolonged economic slowdown, finally, in 2016. Between 2011 and 2015 the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) continued to slide amid sluggish global growth, tumbling commodity prices and domestic changes (higher interest rate environment in 2013-2015 to combat sharply rising inflation as a result of subsidized fuel price reforms). In 2016 this prolonged slowdown will most likely end. Based on the latest forecasts, the Indonesian economy should expand by around 5.0 percent (y/y) this year, up from a growth pace of 4.7 percent in 2015.

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  • World Bank: Brexit Won't Impact Negatively on Indonesia

    World Bank: Brexit Won't Impact Negatively on Indonesia

    When the United Kingdom (UK) decided to leave the European Union (the so-called Brexit) through a referendum that was held on 23 June 2016, global markets were in shock. While these markets and the UK economy have recovered from the shock (although the pound remains near a 30-year low and Britain lost its AAA rating implying that the cost of government borrowing becomes higher) there are still some concerns about the (negative) impact of Brexit on emerging market economies in Asia, including Indonesia.

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  • Analysis Indonesian Economy: What about Indonesia's Economy in 2017?

    Analysis Indonesian Economy: What about Indonesia's Economy in 2017?

    Although the economy of Indonesia will continue to face challenges in 2017, there are a couple of matters that give rise to optimism about accelerating economic growth. These were the conclusions drawn at the Entrepreneur Networking Forum that was held by Bank Tabungan Negara Pensiunan Nasional in Bandung (West Java) on Wednesday (14/09). Although expectations were recently revised down (due to government budget cuts), Indonesian economic growth is still set to rebound in 2016 after having experienced several years of slowdown.

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  • Mining in Indonesia: Is the Recent Coal Price Rally Sustainable?

    Mining in Indonesia: Is the Recent Coal Price Rally Sustainable?

    Coal miners have become cheerful over the past two months as coal prices have surged sharply. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared 9.5 percent (m/m) to USD $63.93 metric tons in September 2016, touching its highest level since April 2015. Moreover, in the preceding month the HBA had already surged by 10.1 percent (m/m). What explains this rise and is it sustainable?

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  • Coal Mining Update Indonesia: Coal Prices Continue to Rise

    Coal Mining Update Indonesia: Coal Prices Continue to Rise

    Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and based on both domestic and global coal prices, rose 9.5 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $63.93 metric tons in September 2016, touching the highest level since April 2015. The recent rally is caused by supply cuts in combination with rising coal demand from China. Regarding the near-term, thermal coal prices are believed to have more upside room due to the approaching winter season.

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  • Stock Market & Rupiah Update Indonesia: Down on Trade Data

    Stock Market & Rupiah Update Indonesia: Down on Trade Data

    Contrary to the positive performance of most emerging market stocks, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell more than one percent on Monday (15/08). While other markets were supported by advances in crude oil prices and a rally in Chinese shares, Indonesian shares declined on the nation's weak trade data that were released by Indonesia's Statistics Agency today. Investors were eager to use this opportunity to engage in profit taking as the Jakarta Composite Index nearly touched a record-high level after an impressive recent rally.

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  • Coal Mining Industry Indonesia: China Cuts Output, Prices Rise

    Coal Mining Industry Indonesia: China Cuts Output, Prices Rise

    Over the past two months global coal prices have surged, primarily on the back of rising coal demand in China where local coal production capacity was curtailed as authorities seek to curb industrial overcapacity. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly rate set by the nation's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, rose 10.1 percent (m/m) to USD $58.37 per ton in August from USD $53.00 per ton in the preceding month, a remarkable rebound that pushed the HBA to a one-year high.

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  • Interview Sri Mulyani: Indonesian Economy Affected by China & Brexit

    Interview Sri Mulyani: Indonesian Economy Affected by China & Brexit

    In today's cabinet reshuffle (27/07) economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati was appointed as Indonesia's new finance minister, replacing Bambang Brodjonegoro. One day earlier, when few were aware about this surprise move, Sri Mulyani spoke briefly to reporters - in her position as managing director and chief operating officer of the World Bank - about the Indonesian and global economy. She sees two matters that negatively affect Indonesia's economic growth: slowing economic growth in China and the Brexit issue.

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  • ASEAN Avoids Taking a Stance on China's Claims in South China Sea

    ASEAN Avoids Taking a Stance on China's Claims in South China Sea

    The ASEAN member nations are unwilling to issue a joint statement regarding the recent ruling of an international tribunal that stated there is no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the South china Sea area that falls within its so-called nine-dash line. Although the Philippines (which had filed for international arbitration at the Netherlands-based Permanent Court of Arbitration) requested ASEAN to respond to the tribunal's ruling, Cambodia has managed to block this move.

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  • Regional Political Tensions: ASEAN Divided in South China Sea Case

    Regional Political Tensions: ASEAN Divided in South China Sea Case

    After an international tribunal came to the conclusion earlier this week that China has no legal claims to most of the South China Sea, there exists a lack of unity among Southeast Asian nations as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to respond to the matter. Among ASEAN officials there was no agreement to issue a joint statement regarding the ruling of the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration as ASEAN member nations are split on the matter.

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Latest Columns China

  • Domestic & Foreign Investment in Indonesia on the Rise in Q1-2015

    Domestic & Foreign Investment in Indonesia on the Rise in Q1-2015

    Investment realization in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2015 totaled IDR 124.6 trillion (USD $9.7 billion), up 16.9 percent from the same quarter last year. Domestic direct investment climbed 22.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 42.5 trillion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 14 percent (y/y) to IDR 82.1 trillion in Q1-2015. These data, released by the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/04), brought some positivity in Indonesia after listed companies’ weak Q1-2015 financial results led to concern and capital outflow.

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  • Rubber Industry Indonesia: Challenges and Opportunities

    Rubber Industry Indonesia: Challenges and Opportunities

    In late 2014 Indonesian rubber producers and exporters were not amused when the government of China decided to approve a new standard for compound rubber imports. The permitted crude rubber content in imported compound rubber was cut from 95-99.5 percent to 88 percent, meaning that compound rubber imports into China became subject to a 20 percent import duty (the same tariff as natural rubber import duties). China’s new policy is a blow to its rubber suppliers, which include Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

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  • Analysis Performance of the Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate

    The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate on Monday (02/03). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency depreciated 0.30 percent to IDR 12,970 per US dollar, a six-year low. Apart from general bullish US dollar momentum in recent months (amid monetary tightening in the USA), the rupiah weakened due to Bank Indonesia’s signals that it tolerates a weaker currency in a move to boost exports (limiting the country’s current account deficit), and due to China’s interest rates cut.

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  • Rupiah Exchange Rate Indonesia Update: Why the Currency Gained Today

    Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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  • Indonesian Stocks Hit Record High on ECB & Chinese Stimulus

    Indonesian Stocks Hit Record High on ECB & Chinese Stimulus

    Indonesian stocks hit a record high on Thursday (22/01). Most emerging Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on increased speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is to launch a massive bond-buying program (which was confirmed later on the day after Asian markets had closed), a move aimed at boosting inflation in the Eurozone and which puts pressure on euro-denominated assets. The euro had depreciated 1.67 percent against the US dollar by 11:20 ET on Thursday based on Bloomberg data.

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  • IMF Downgrades Global Economic Growth, China at 24-Year Low

    There was few good news from a global economic perspective as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its outlook for global economic growth in the next two years. According to the IMF, global economic growth will only reach 3.5 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016 due to poorer prospects in China, Russia, the Eurozone, and Japan. Economic growth of China (the world’s second-largest economy) fell to a 24-year low at 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, below the government target of 7.5 percent (y/y).

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  • Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate Rebounds from Six-Year Low

    Indonesian Rupiah Exchange Rate Rebounds from Six-Year Low

    Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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  • Stock Market & Rupiah Update Indonesia: Bad Start of the Week

    Stock Market & Rupiah Update Indonesia: Bad Start of the Week

    Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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  • Rubber Update: Indonesia, Thailand & Malaysia Make New Policies

    Rubber Update: Indonesia, Thailand & Malaysia Make New Policies

    Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries (accounting for about 70 percent of total global natural rubber output), have agreed to avoid excessive natural rubber supply on the international market by limiting their rubber exports. The countries also agree to curb new rubber plantation development as well as to spur domestic rubber consumption in each country. This statement was read out by Douglas Uggah Embas, Plantation Industries Minister of Malaysia, in Kuala Lumpur today (20/11).

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  • Global Concern: Economy of China Slows to 7.3% in Q3-2014

    Global Concern: Economy of China Slows to 7.3% in Q3-2014

    Economic expansion of China slowed to a growth pace of 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, the slowest pace in five years. Although China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result was better than most analysts’ projections of 7.2 percent, Chinese policy makers will face difficulties to achieve its 7.5 percent annual growth target for full-year 2014. Being one of the most important trading partners of Indonesia, slowing economic growth of China has a major impact on the export performance of Indonesia.

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