Manufacturing activity in Indonesia contracted for the 10th consecutive month in July 2015 as new orders declined. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing manager’s index (PMI), released on Monday (03/08), fell 0.5 points to 47.3 last month (from 47.8 in June), remaining below the level of 50 points that separates contraction from expansion. Due to deteriorating conditions in the country’s manufacturing sector, Indonesian factories shed jobs at the fastest pace since the survey started in 2011.

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Indonesia’s manufacturing activity continued to contract in June. It was the ninth consecutive month that the country’s manufacturing sector contracted. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing manager's index (PMI) rose slightly to 47.8 in June 2015 from 47.1 in May, implying that the sector contracted at a slower pace but remained well below the level of 50 that separates contraction from expansion. Contraction continued due to persistent declines in new orders and production. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures (7.26 percent y/y in June) persist.

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Although improving slightly, Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted for the 8th straight month in May 2015. The HSBC Markit purchasing manager’s index (PMI) rose to 47.1 in May from 46.7 in the preceding month (a score below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity). The survey indicated that output, new orders and employment remained weak. This feeds expectation that a sudden improvement in Indonesian manufacturing in the near term is highly unlikely. On a positive note, output and new orders fell at weaker rates.

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Although the pace is slowing, Indonesia’s manufacturing sector continued to contract in April 2015, the seventh consecutive month of declining manufacturing activity in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Indonesia’s latest HSBC purchasing manager’s index (PMI) was 46.7, up slightly from 46.4 in March (which constituted a historic low for Indonesia). A score below 50.0 signals contraction in manufacturing activity. Primary factors that caused this contraction are continued declining export orders and continued weak domestic demand.

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After two straight months of deflation, Indonesia saw its consumer price index rise again in March 2015. According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded inflation of 0.17 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March. This result was in line with analysts’ projections. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation rose to 6.38 percent from the same month last year, slightly higher than the 6.29 percent (y/y) of inflation recorded in February. The country’s core inflation rose to 5.04 percent (y/y) in March.

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The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Indonesia contracted to 48.0 in November 2014 (from 49.2 in the previous month), the weakest level since reporting began in early 2011 amid weak demand and higher fuel prices, official data showed on Monday (01/12). A reading below 50.0 indicates that manufacturing activity has contracted. Su Sian Lim, Economist at HSBC, said that the recent subsidized fuel price, rupiah depreciation, and weak external demand were the key drivers for this poor performance.

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Indonesia's HSBC Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) reached its highest level ever at 52.4 in May 2014, up from 51.1 in April 2014, as new domestic orders rose (indicating an improvement in domestic activity). According to HSBC economist Su Sian Lim, the outcome may be evidence that the slowdown in domestic manufacturing is starting to bottom out. In the previous two months, the index indicated slowing manufacturing activity in Southeast Asia's largest economy although remained above the 50.0 level for nine straight months.

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Although conditions remain challenging, there is some room for optimism as manufacturing activity in Indonesia reportedly climbed in the last month of 2018. In December 2018 the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a reading of 51.2, up from 50.4 in the previous month (a reading over 50 indicates expansion in the nation’s manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 points at contraction).

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved in April 2018, touching its fastest growth pace in 22 months, on the back of strengthening domestic demand. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a reading of 51.6 in April 2018, up from 50.7 in the preceding month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). However, business confidence towards the business outlook (for the year ahead) weakened to the lowest point since December 2012.

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Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved markedly in February 2018 with the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to a reading of 51.4, from 49.9 in January (the 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion). It was the fastest pace of growth for Indonesia's manufacturing sector since June 2016; growth that came on the back of rising output and new orders.

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Indonesia is being threatened by deindustrialization. There have been reports that rising minimum wages, the low quality of local human resources, or scarcity of local raw materials have been encouraging companies in certain industries to relocate to other countries in Asia. This partly explains why the manufacturing industry's role toward Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) has been on the decline.

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Indonesia's Nikkei manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) grew to a reading of 50.4 in November 2017, slightly improving from 50.1 in the preceding month when broad stagnation was detected. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. Indonesia's November manufacturing growth was primarily caused by accelerating expansion in output and new orders.

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Activity in Indonesia's manufacturing industry tumbled into contraction again in June 2017, after having experienced four months of straight growth. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to a reading of 49.5 in June, from 50.6 in the preceding month (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion). Contraction in Indonesia's manufacturing sector is particularly blamed on a stagnation in domestic order books.

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In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.

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Despite technical indicators suggesting further upward movement of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG), a positive performance of the index was blocked by external factors. Several Asian stock indices were down responding to Markit's lower US manufacturing PMI (slipping to 55.5 from 57.1 in February 2014). Similarly, China and the Eurozone's manufacturing data showed slowing growth. Continued appreciation of the rupiah exchange rate managed to limit the decline of the IHSG.

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