The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) announced that Indonesia's palm oil production realization reached 34.5 million tons in 2016, down 3 percent from a production figure of 35.5 million tons in the preceding year. The reason why Indonesia's palm oil output fell in 2016 was the El Nino weather phenomenon that brought dry weather to Southeast Asia. The unconducive weather conditions plagued harvests in the region, although the 3 percent decline was much softer than earlier predictions. Earlier, several analysts predicted a 15-30 percent (y/y) decline of palm oil output in Indonesia in 2016.

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Indonesia, the world's largest producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO), set the export tax for its CPO shipments at USD $18 per metric ton for February 2017, significantly higher than the USD $3 per metric ton export tax in the preceding month. Indonesia's benchmark February CPO price was set at USD $815.5 per ton, rising further above the USD $750 per ton threshold that the Indonesian government uses to separate a zero export tax policy from the setting of an export tax.

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The European Union (EU) is a key export market for Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) producers. The EU consumed 6.3 million tons of CPO in full-year 2015, 65.2 percent of which (about 4.2 million tons) originated from Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer and exporter. After India, the EU is Indonesia's biggest client in terms of CPO shipments. However, despite the big market for Indonesian CPO in the EU, there are major challenges for Indonesian CPO exporters due to negative (anti-palm oil) campaigns launched in the EU.

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Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund (BPDP-KS), Indonesia exported 25.7 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) in full-year 2016, a 1.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) decline from 26.2 million tons of CPO shipments in the preceding year. However, in terms of value Indonesia's CPO exports actually surged 8 percent (y/y) to USD $17.8 billion in 2016. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter and producer of palm oil, followed by Malaysia.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Trade re-introduces a USD $3 per ton export tax for crude palm oil (CPO) shipments in January 2017 as the government's reference palm oil price exceeded the USD $750 per ton threshold that separates the existence of export duties from zero rates. The government's reference price was set at USD $788.26 per ton for January 2017, said Dody Edward, Director General for Foreign Trade at the Trade Ministry.

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In 2015 the crude oil supply glut stemming from OPEC countries and the US shale gas revolution put severe downward pressure on commodity prices, including crude palm oil (CPO). Thanks to the El Nino and La Nina weather phenomenons (and a moratorium on new palm oil concessions) CPO output was curtailed in 2015 and 2016, implying some upward pressure for CPO prices, hence rebounding from a multi-year low of USD $526 per ton in November 2015. In 2016 the CPO price is expected to average USD $670 per ton.

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Global demand for vegetable and animal oils is expected to reach 200 million tons in 2016, up 3 percent from demand one year earlier. About 70 million tons of total global vegetable and animal oils demand this year consists of crude palm oil (CPO). Indonesia, the world's largest CPO producer and exporter, is expected to produce about 30.5 million tons of CPO in 2016. Meanwhile, in the first nine months of 2016 Indonesia's CPO export realization stood at 18 million tons.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) believes that the crude palm oil (CPO) price will stay between USD $750 and USD $790 per metric ton in October 2016. This prediction comes on the back of several positive sentiments. CPO demand from China, Europe, India and the USA has increased and is able to offset declining CPO demand from Africa and the Middle East. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at Gapki, informed that as a result of strong global CPO demand CPO reserves in Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest producers and exporters of the edible oil, are declining.

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Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), informed that Indonesia's exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives (including biodiesel and oleo-chemicals) reached 1.74 million tons in July 2016, down around 8 percent from the 1.89 million tons that were exported one month earlier. The decline in exports is attributed to rising CPO consumption at home and easing demand in several key export markets.

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Production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia is expected to decline 5 percent (y/y) to 29.6 million tons from a realization of 31.2 million tons in the preceding year. At the start of the year the Agriculture Ministry of Indonesia targeted CPO output around 31-32 million tons in full-year 2016. However, lower-than-targeted CPO production is the result of a looming strong La Nina weather phenomenon (which brings wetter-than-usual conditions to Southeast Asia) and the strong El Nino earlier this year (bringer droughts to Southeast Asia).

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Indonesia's largest supplier of crude palm oil (CPO), Astra Agro Lestari, is expected to see improving corporate earnings in the years ahead on the back of the rising CPO price and expectation of the company's climbing CPO production volume. The year 2016 was a good year for Astra Agro Lestari as it reported a 224.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) jump in net profit and a 7.6 percent (y/y) increase in sales, led by sales of CPO and derivative products. This was a great recovery from the preceding year. CPO and derivative products account for more than 86 percent of the company's total sales.

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The completion of its factory and being granted an additional sugar import quota is expected to boost corporate earnings of Tunas Baru Lampung, one of Indonesia’s leading producers of vegetable cooking oil (covering palm and coconut cooking oil). Furthermore, the company will feel the positive impact of rising crude palm oil (CPO) prices. Tunas Baru Lampung is part of the Sungai Budi Group, an Indonesia-based manufacturer and distributor of agricultural consumer products.

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The higher crude palm oil (CPO) price will have a positive impact on the corporate earnings of Indonesian CPO producers, including Sampoerna Agro. Benchmark palm oil futures for March 2017 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were at 3,161 ringgit (approx. USD $706) per ton at the end of last week, near a four and a half year high. However, not all analysts advise investors to purchase shares of Sampoerna Agro, a company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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Indonesia's Industry Ministry selected the industrial estate in Berau (East Kalimantan) as the center for the downstream palm oil industry in Kalimantan. Furthermore, Panggah Susanto, the Industry Ministry's Director General for Agriculture industry, said the government proposes to select Berau as one of the palm oil centers within the Palm Oil Green Economic Zone (POGEZ) scheme. Berau is chosen to replace Bontang because the former has 3,400 hectares of (clear and clean) industrial land available, while land in Bontang still falls under "protected forest" status.

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Non-governmental environmental organization Greenpeace blocked all import and export channels of crude palm oil (CPO) trader IOI on Tuesday morning (27/09) in the harbor of Rotterdam (the Netherlands), the city that acts as palm oil’s gateway into Europe. Greenpeace activists decided to take action after a Greenpeace International report showed that palm oil from companies that are reportedly involved in forest destruction, peatland fires and child labor is still flowing into Europe and the USA through IOI facilities.

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The crude palm oil (CPO) price touched its highest level so far this year. On Tuesday (20/09) palm oil futures (December delivery) - traded on the Kuala Lumpur exchange - ended the day at 2,690 ringgit (approx. USD $651 per metric ton). Palm oil prices are rising as CPO production in Indonesia and Malaysia will remain subdued this year due to droughts that were brought by the El Nino weather phenomenon earlier in 2016, while there is expectation of a rather wet season later this year due to the La Nina weather phenomenon.

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Expectation of rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and crude palm oil (CPO) volumes in the second half of the year should boost the corporate earnings of Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading agribusiness companies. Meanwhile, sentiments related to the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand on the back of the Indonesian government's biodiesel program should support CPO prices. Astra Agro Lestari is the plantation unit of diversified conglomerate Astra International.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo has ordered the nation's Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya to issue a moratorium on new palm oil concessions in a number of provinces. Although Widodo wants Indonesia - the world's top producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO) - to raise CPO output, he believes this increase can be achieved by increasing productivity of existing palm oil plantations, not by adding new plantations. Indonesia is often criticized by environmentalist groups for its forestry policies and poor law enforcement (which led to the severe haze that spread through Southeast Asia last year).

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Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose 9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.29 million tons in February 2016 on the back of growing CPO demand in Africa, Bangladesh, India and the European Union. Indonesia's February CPO export volume was better than estimated previously. Analysts had expected a figure below 2 million tons. Combined, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 4.39 million tons in the first two months of 2016, up 22 percent (y/y) from the 3.59 million tons of CPO that Indonesia exported in the same period one year earlier.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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