The Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI) says higher productivity is the key to boost Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production. Amid international pressure, particularly after the devastating forest fires on Sumatra and Kalimantan in the second half of 2015, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced to issue a five-year moratorium on new palm oil concessions to limit the expansion of oil palm plantations in Indonesia. Although Indonesian authorities want to see rising CPO output (in order to safeguard foreign exchange earnings and create employment opportunities), further growth should come on the back of rising productivity, not by adding new plantations.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI) expects Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports to drop 8.7 percent (y/y) to 21 million tons next year from an estimated 23 million tons in 2015. This decline in export is attributed to an increase in domestic CPO consumption amid the full implementation of the country's B15 biodiesel program. Domestic consumption of CPO is estimated to grow 37 percent (y/y) from 8.4 million tons in 2015 to 11.5 million tons in 2016. If the B20 biodiesel program will be implemented as well, then Indonesia's CPO exports may decline further.

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is estimated to reach 31 million tons this year, up from an expected 29.5 million tons in 2014, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI). Similar to last year, CPO production growth is limited due to unconducive weather conditions in the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Moreover, old trees have become less productive, while the younger generation of planted trees have not yet reached an optimal production age.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI) expects exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) as well as its derivatives to fall about six to ten percent to 19-20 million tons in 2014 (from last year's export realization of 21.2 million tons). Lower CPO exports are primarily the result of Indonesia's mandatory biodiesel program which leads to increased domestic consumption of CPO. Traditionally, Indonesia exports about 75 percent of its total CPO production, particularly to the giant economies of China and India.

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The crude palm oil business received a blow when France announced it plans to impose progressive tax on imports of crude palm oil and its derivatives. French authorities approved a bill on 21 January 2016 that will raise the import tax on palm oil from around 100 euro per ton currently to 300 euro per ton in 2017. This tariff will then be raised to 700 euro per ton in 2019, and to 900 euro per ton in 2020. Through this tax hike France aims to discourage the palm oil industry, hence curtailing global deforestation as well as to protect its citizens from the negative health effects caused by the consumption of palm oil.

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