Inflation is under control in Indonesia. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation eased to 3.60 percent (y/y) in April 2016, well within the target range of the nation's central bank and central government. However, inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia's largest economy may rise in the second half of the year because there is a big chance that the El Nino weather phenomenon is to be followed by the La Nina weather phenomenon. Both weather phenomenons impact heavily on Indonesia's agricultural output.

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The Provincial Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) of Jakarta predicts that Indonesia's capital city may be plagued by a big flood in February 2016. The city has been seeing more rainfall in recent weeks and rainfall is expected to intensify and to reach its peak in February according to both the BPBD and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (BMKG). In late January and February rainfall may be more than 100 millimeter per day but there are also estimates that rainfall can rise up to 380 millimeters in one day. This could cause a major flood.

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The Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries (AEKI) expects coffee bean production in Indonesia to decline by about 11 percent to 650,000-670,000 tons in 2014, from 740,000 tons in the previous year. This decline is actually less severe than initially expected as weather conditions have improved in the main coffee bean growing regions on Sumatra. Meanwhile, output in 2015 is projected at 700,000 tons. Indonesia is currently the world’s third-largest coffee bean producer, after Brazil and Vietnam.

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