The price of hot rolled coil (HRC) steel in Indonesia jumped 20 percent to USD $600 per ton in the first quarter of 2017, from USD $500 per ton in the same quarter one year earlier. This price growth is encouraged by the rising global steel price, a trend that is expected to continue in the remainder of 2017. Based on data from MEsteel, a Middle East b2b steel portal, the price of the benchmark HRC stood at USD $545 per ton in March 2017, up 49 percent from USD $365 per ton in the same month one year ago.

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The Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISIA) predicts that steel sales in Indonesia will grow nearly 9 percent (y/y) to 12.5 million tons in 2016, from 11.5 million tons in 2015, on the back of new infrastructure projects. IISIA Director for International Relations Purwono Widodo adds that the market share of locally-produced steel is expected to rise from 40 percent to 60 percent. This is a positive development because the steel market in Indonesia has been dominated by imports (mostly from China).

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After a three-year slowdown, the steel industry of Indonesia is showing some positive developments supported by government-led infrastructure projects in Indonesia and the rising global steel price. The price for (benchmark) hot rolled coil has surged 47 percent since the start of 2016 to USD $485 per ton (May 2016 delivery). In late 2015 the price of hot rolled coil was as low as USD $265 per ton. Moreover, the mandatory usage of locally-manufactured steel for the infrastructure projects will have a positive impact on Indonesia's steel industry.

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Demand for steel in Indonesia is expected to rise in 2016 on enhanced infrastructure development. However, the majority of steel - approximately 60 percent of total demand in Indonesia - is still being imported from abroad (primarily China). Gusti Putu Suryawirawan, Director for Base Metal Industries at Indonesia's Industry Ministry, said the government is eager to support the domestic steel manufacturing industry in order to avert further domination of foreign manufactured steel on the Indonesian market.

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The overall capacity utilization of Indonesia's steel industry could grow to 80 percent from 50 percent currently. However, it will require government support. Hidayat Triseputro, Executive Director of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA), is optimistic this target can be achieved as the government's push for infrastructure development is showing positive signs (in the second half of 2015 there have been more groundbreaking ceremonies for large government-led infrastructure projects across the country).

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The government of Indonesia plans to introduce a 15 percent anti-dumping duty on steel to prevent massive steel imports thus supporting Indonesia’s domestic steel industry. Indonesia is not the first country to introduce anti-dumping import duties on steel products. China imposed anti-dumping duties on certain stainless steel tubes from Japan and the European Union (thereby increasing the global steel oversupply), while Malaysia imposed anti-dumping duties on hot rolled coils imported from China and Indonesia.

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The price of steel has surged 20 percent to USD $365 per ton in April 2016 from USD $305 per ton at the start of the year. The primary reason for the higher steel price is China's plan to curtail the country's installed steel production capacity by a further 150 million tons over the next five years. In recent years the steel price has dropped significantly due to the global oversupply, mainly originating from the chronic steel oversupply in China where domestic demand declined amid the nation's economic slowdown.

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