Chatib Basri, the Finance Minister of Indonesia, said that the government will focus more on infrastructure development in order to support the third economic policy package which was announced last week by Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa. Previously, in August and December 2013, the government had already implemented two policy reform packages aimed at safeguarding financial stability as the country had been plagued by a wide current account deficit, high inflation, large capital outflows and sharp rupiah depreciation.

Read more ›

Tomorrow (13/03), Bank Indonesia will hold its next Board of Governor's Meeting to discuss general policies in the monetary field. As usual, market participants are highly interested in the central bank's assessment of the country's economic fundamentals and interest rates policy. However, predictions about Bank Indonesia's stance toward its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) are mixed. Some expect it to be kept at 7.50 percent as inflation has been under control. Others anticipate a 0.25 percent hike due to the country's weak exports.

Read more ›

Amid a political crisis in the Ukraine, the oil price has risen significantly and the US dollar is appreciating against other currencies, particularly emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Besides the US dollar, demand for other safe havens (gold, yen as well as US Treasuries) also increased due to Russian presence in the Ukraine (Crimea peninsula). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 11,632 per US Dollar at 11:40 a.m. local Jakarta time.

Read more ›

After recording three months of consecutive trade surpluses at the end of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance slipped back into deficit in January 2014. Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - posted a USD $430.6 million deficit in the first month of 2014. Exports fell 5.79 percent (year-on-year) to USD $14.48 billion, while imports fell 3.46 percent to USD $14.92 billion. The decline in exports were caused by the implementation of the ban on raw minerals (per 12 January 2014). Mineral ore exports fell over 70 percent (month-to-month).

Read more ›

Indonesia Investments has updated its overview of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) in the Macroeconomic Indicators section. Although Indonesia's GDP growth has slowed in the past two years amid global financial troubles and uncertainty in combination with a number of internal financial weaknesses (the country's wide current account deficit, high inflation and higher interest rate environment), it can still be labeled robust at 5.78 percent in 2013. This overview includes a discussion on GDP per capita and income distribution.

Read more ›

Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) has sent a clear signal to those market participants that hope to see a lower benchmark interest rate (BI rate) in Southeast Asia's largest economy in the near future. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo stated that there will be no lower BI rate as long as there is looming global uncertainty. On the contrary, the possibility of another BI rate hike is still there. In 2013, Bank Indonesia raised its BI rate on five occassions in order to combat inflation and curb the country's wide current account deficit.

Read more ›

Following a meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers, Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri said in an interview that this year's economic growth in Indonesia may slow to the lowest level since 2009 as the government and central bank implemented various measures aimed at curbing GDP growth in order to safeguard financial stability. Basri said that GDP growth in the range of 5.5 to 5.8 percent is a more realistic forecast. Slower growth will help to realize the government's aim to reduce the current account deficit to between 2.0 and 2.5 percent of GDP.

Read more ›

On 23 February 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the G20 meeting in Sydney, foreign confidence in Indonesia's capital markets, the Gini ratio, coal royalties, the current account deficit, infrastructure development, and more.

Read more ›

Ahead of the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Sydney on 22 and 23 February 2014, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report titled "Global Prospects and Policy Challenges", which discusses recent global economic developments as well as an outlook for the near future. According to the report, global economic activity picked up in the second half of 2013, largely due to improved conditions in advanced economies, thus boosting exports in many emerging markets.

Read more ›

Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate continues its sharp appreciation on Valentine's day (14/02). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency was up 0.80 percent to IDR 11,880 per US dollar at 9:56 local Jakarta time. Yesterday (13/02), the rupiah had recorded a 0.89 pecent gain. This recent appreciating trend of the rupiah is caused by international investors' renewed confidence in Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals. Particularly the improvement in the country's current account deficit is well received by investors.

Read more ›

Due to a lack of positive domestic and external sentiments, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has depreciated to a six-week low against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's currency declined 0.66 percent to IDR 11,521 per US dollar by 16:22 local Jakarta time. In fact, several negative domestic sentiments are the reason behind the current depreciation. Firstly, revived concerns about Indonesia's current account deficit and, secondly, concerns about capital outflows due to dividend payments.

Read more ›

ICRA Indonesia released an analysis of the economic impact of the ban on export of raw minerals. The ban - stipulated by the new 2009 Mining Law - became effective per 12 January 2014 (although in a milder form as some mineral ore exports are allowed under specific terms) and aims at boosting domestic processing. However, it led to great concern among domestic and foreign stakeholders as its implications on the economy of Indonesia - a global leader in exports of mineral resources - were unknown.

Read more ›

Standard Chartered Bank Economist Eric Sugandi expects that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will have raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 50 basis points (bps) to 8.00 percent by the end of 2014. Sugandi also said that it is highly unlikely that Bank Indonesia will lower its BI rate in the next two years amid further Federal Reserve tapering and possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, the Indonesian government may still decide to reduce fuel subsidies further (thus triggering inflationary pressures).

Read more ›

ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the March 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

Read more ›

The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow to 5.77 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2014. However, despite this further slowing trend, the institution is content with recent macroeconomic developments: external demand is growing, while domestic demand is moderating, thus impacting positively on the country's current account deficit as well as inflation. Household consumption is expected to have grown in Q1-2014 due to the holding of legislative elections on 9 April 2014.

Read more ›

The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the Board of Governors’ Meeting held on Tuesday 8 April 2014. The Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate were held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

Read more ›

Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.

Read more ›

Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be maintained at 7.50 percent at Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting on Tuesday 8 April 2014. Despite Indonesia's moderating inflation rate (7.32 percent year on year in March 2014) and the February 2014 trade surplus of USD $785 million, the BI rate may be left unchanged in order to support the further easing of Indonesia's current account deficit and to offset the impact of the possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016.

Read more ›

The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).

Read more ›

At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.

Read more ›