Forecasts for crude palm oil (CPO) futures in 2015 are positive as prices are expected to rise on declining inventories in Malaysia, growing Indian CPO imports, and falling Indonesian CPO exports as domestic biodiesel demand rises in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a four-month high at the start of the week (touching 2,345 ringgit per metric ton) partly due to sharp ringgit depreciation (which makes CPO relatively cheap for other currency-holders). However, today (06/11) futures fell 1.3 percent to 2,223 ringgit.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) producers have released good corporate earnings over the first nine months of 2014. Below, we have presented an overview of those CPO producers, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, that have already released their financial results. Combined, these eleven companies recorded net profit growth of 155.3 percent year-on-year (y/y). The main reason for this improved performance was the 24 percent (average) increase in global CPO prices as the commodity gained popularity as an energy source.

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Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and CPO derived products from Indonesia in the first nine months of 2014 only reached 15 million tons, down 1.75 percent from the same period last year. The main cause for this disappointing performance is slowing economic growth in China and India resulting in reduced palm oil demand from these two giant economies. As a result of weak global demand, the CPO price has fallen to an average price of USD $712 per ton in September 2014, down 5.4 percent from the previous month.

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On 19 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, foreign direct investments, an update on the coal mining sector, tax, the cement industry, palm oil, steel industry, and more.

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Fuad Rahmany, Director General of Taxes at the Indonesian Finance Ministry, said that state revenue from taxes will not achieve the target that has been set in the Revised 2014 State Budget (APBNP 2014). Rahmany expects that only 94 percent of the target, or about IDR 1,008 trillion (USD $84 billion) will be achieved (this figure excludes import duties and excise duties). Classical problems that cause Indonesia’s low tax-to-GDP ratio include low tax compliance, the low number of tax officials, and weak government coordination.

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Malaysia announced that it has extended its zero export tariff for crude palm oil (CPO) until the end of the year in an attempt to boost sales. Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Douglas Uggah Embas said that this decision is aimed at preventing a further drastic fall in CPO prices. Palm oil futures declined by about 18 percent in 2014 amid an oversupply in combination with weak global demand. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s top palm oil producers and exporters.

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Newly elected presidential pair Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and running mate Jusuf Kalla, the pair that will guide Indonesia for the next five years starting from October 2014, propose to raise the target for economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy from 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent in 2015. Furthermore, the pair would like to set a stronger average rupiah rate at IDR 11,600 per US dollar over 2015 (from IDR 11,900 as set in the Revised 2015 State Budget). Several reasons are behind these ambitious targets.

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The structure of tax revenue in Indonesia has not changed in the past decade resulting in the country’s still low tax-to-GDP ratio of between 12 and 13 percent. Emerging countries such as Indonesia typically have a low tax-to-GDP ratio as the government’s financial management is inadequate (and plagued by corruption). However, it is important for Indonesia to raise this ratio in order to have more funds available to finance the budget deficit, infrastructure development, healthcare, education and other social programs to combat poverty.

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The Indonesian government plans to introduce its 3rd fiscal policy package, aimed at boosting investments in Indonesia, this month. Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said that it involves tax incentives (tax allowance and tax holidays). The government will also make it more attractive for foreign companies to re-invest profits in Indonesia. Coordinating Economic Minister Chairul Tanjung added that a dividend tax exemption for both domestic and foreign investors is possible, provided that dividend is re-invested in Indonesian assets.

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Both Indonesia's Ministry of Industry and Trade propose to impose a luxury goods sales tax (PPnBM) of 20 percent on all imported mobile phones. Previously, the Ministry of Industry said the new tax rule - if approved - would only apply to cellular phones with a price tag of at least IDR 5 million (USD $442). Now, however, all imported cell phones will be affected. This new tax policy aims to curb imports of mobile phones (thus impacting positively on the trade balance) and to support the development of a domestic mobile phone industry.

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Freeport Indonesia stated that the company's production of copper concentrate plunged since the Indonesian government implemented the ban on exports of unprocessed minerals on 12 January 2014. Currently, Freeport only produces to supply Smelting Gresik, Indonesia's first copper smelter and refinery. As such, Freeport only operates at 45 percent of production capacity regarding copper concentrate. According to Freeport Indonesia's spokeswoman Daisy Primayanti, production of copper concentrate fell to 3,150 tons per day.

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri stated that the government of Indonesia is busy preparing three new policies that aim to restore financial stability as well as attract foreign direct investments. These three new policies involve the higher sales tax on imported luxury cars, a revision of Indonesia's negative investment list, and the higher income tax on imported consumption goods. These three new policies are in addition to the policy package that was introduced by the Indonesian government in August 2013.

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Apart from the five tax incentives that I have mentioned in a previous column, the Indonesian government also intends to ease two other tax rules in order to boost investments in Indonesia from 2014 onwards. These are the tax holiday and tax allowance. Relaxation of the tax holiday involves an alteration to the period as well as the size of the investment, and relaxation of procedural difficulties. Relaxation of the tax allowance involves the revision of the number of sectors that are eligible and a relaxation of procedures in the form of tax clearance.

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The government of Indonesia is busy preparing seven tax incentives to boost investment flows in 2014. Investments currently account for approximately 32 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Only domestic consumption owns a larger stake towards the economy with 55 percent. The regulatory framework related to the seven incentives is expected to be finalized by the end of this year. The incentives consist of five new ones and the relaxation of two older incentives, namely the tax holiday and tax allowance.

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Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.

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In the revised state budget, Indonesia's government has lowered its forecast for tax revenue in 2013. Originally, the government expected to receive IDR 1,193.0 trillion (USD $122.4 billion) but the figure has been tuned down to IDR 1,139.3 trillion (USD $116.9 billion). Minister of Finance Chatib Basri stated that the forecast for tax revenue has been revised down by IDR 55.1 trillion, while the figure for export duties has been raised by IDR 1.4 trillion. Indonesia's tax-to-GDP ratio in 2013 has been changed to 12.11 percent from 12.87 percent.

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The Indonesian government - through its Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - has stated to provide fiscal incentives to encourage oil and gas exploration in Indonesia. Indonesia, a former OPEC member, has recorded a declining oil production since the 1990s due to a lack of exploration and investments in this sector. To reverse this situation, the government will provide a number of tax exemptions.

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