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Today's Headlines Cement Sales
Indonesian cement manufacturers remain optimistic that domestic cement consumption in Indonesia will rise more markedly in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year national cement sales rose 3.48 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 30.0 million tons.
Cement sales in Indonesia rose 6.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 15.7 million tons in the first quarter of 2018. While the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) initially expected cement consumption to be flat in March, consumption actually rose 3.4 percent (y/y) to 5.21 million tons in the third month of the year, hence pushing the overall Q1 figure to 15.7 million tons. A country's cement sales are a good indicator to measure its property and infrastructure development.
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, the second-largest cement manufacturer in Indonesia, has high hopes for its second brand in the low-end cement market of Indonesia. Considering the challenging environment for the nation's cement companies - most notable the fierce competition and significant supply glut - Indocement is using another strategy in order to gain its market share.
Domestic cement consumption in Indonesia rose 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.79 million tons in February 2018, supported by significantly rising cement demand on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesia Cement Association (ASI), said most provinces on Sumatra showed rising appetite for cement last month with the exception of West Sumatra and Bengkulu.
The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) said cement sales in Indonesia grew by 7.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in full-year 2017. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of ASI, said cement sales rose in all regions across the country with the exception of Kalimantan and Sulawesi. As usual, the biggest cement consumer in 2017 was Java. This island accounted for 57 percent of total cement consumption in Indonesia in 2017, followed by Sumatra with 21 percent.
Demand for cement in Indonesia is rising ahead of the year-end. Growing cement demand is attributed to the speeding up of construction of several national strategic infrastructure projects. Widodo Santoso, General Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said cement consumption in Indonesia rose 12.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.76 million tons in October 2017.
Cement consumption continued to improve in Indonesia in August 2017 on the back of rising demand from Java and the eastern region of Indonesia. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesia's cement consumption rose 9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.47 million tons in August 2017.
In May 2017 Indonesia's national cement consumption extended the rise that started in the preceding month supported by a recovery in the property sector and infrastructure development projects. Based on data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), cement demand grew 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.47 million tons in May. Meanwhile, cement sales rose 4.1 percent (y/y) to 25.26 million tons in the January-May 2017 period.
The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has high hopes for Indonesia's cement exports this year. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the ASI, said he wants the nation's exports grow to the range of 2 - 3 million tons in 2017, up from 1.5 million tons in the preceding year (implying nearly 100 percent year-on-year growth). By the year 2019 the association targets to see 5 million tons of cement exports shipped abroad from Indonesia.
Cement sales in Indonesia rose 0.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.54 million tons in February 2017 from 4.54 million tons in the same month one year earlier. This growth pace is considerably below market participants' targets. Weak cement sales in the second month of 2017 are blamed on weather conditions (the high amount of rainfall that caused floods in several parts of Indonesia) and on the fact that direct investment (in infrastructure and property) outside Java remains bleak.
Latest Columns Cement Sales
Between the years 2011 and 2013 Indonesia’s cement industry seemed to be a goldmine. Double-digit growth in annual domestic cement sales – supported by strong growth in the country’s property sector, particularly on the islands of Java and Sumatra – attracted new foreign investment in cement production facilities, while established cement producers in the Archipelago invested in expansion of their cement production facilities.
Cement sales were good in January 2018 for Indonesian cement manufacturers, growth that is attributed to rising cement demand on the back of the government-led infrastructure development program, particularly the construction of toll roads. Indonesia's cement consumption rose 9.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.68 million tons in January 2018.
Over the past five years Indonesia's annual cement production capacity surged to above 100 million tons, while domestic cement consumption has difficulty to reach beyond 65 million tons (and Indonesia exports relatively few cement). The subsequent oversupply condition puts significant pressure on cement prices. So, what are the strategies of Indonesian cement producers in 2018?
While domestic cement demand remains bleak, Indonesia's cement producers managed to raise their level of production capacity utilization due to a surge in exports. However, export growth will only slightly improve the structural oversupply situation in Indonesia's cement market. With installed annual production capacity estimated at 103.8 million tons of cement, nearly 40 million tons of capacity remains unused.
For Indonesian cement producers it is vital to maintain their market share amid ongoing difficult times. With Indonesia's total installed annual cement production capacity now being around 100 million tons, while domestic demand is only expected to reach 65 million in 2017, cement players are facing weak prices amid a big oversupply, while foreign demand for Indonesian cement is yet to grow. Meanwhile, due to the arrival of various new cement players in Indonesia in recent years, competition for market share has become increasingly fierce.
Cement sales in Indonesia weakened 5.4 percent month-on-month (m/m) - or 5.3 percent on an annual basis - to 5.7 million tons in November 2016. However, in the first 11 months of 2016 Indonesian cement sales reached a total of 56.5 million tons, up 2.8 percent (y/y) from domestic cement sales in the same period one year earlier. This modest growth is supported by government-led infrastructure development as well as smelter and power plant development. The housing market, however, remained flat. Also intense rainfall managed to curtail the progress of projects. Below, a snapshot of our latest report.
To assess Indonesia's purchasing power and consumer confidence it is always useful to take a look at car and motorcycle sales because when people are confident about their financial situation and have enough money to spend then they tend to buy cars and motorcycles (motorcycles are particularly popular among Indonesia's huge middle to lower-middle class segment). Meanwhile, cement sales inform about property and infrastructure development. Property development is also closely related to purchasing power and consumer confidence because property development grows when people's demand for property rises.
The year 2015 was a sluggish year for Indonesia's cement industry amid the country's slowing economic growth. Total cement sales only rose 1.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 61 million tons, the slowest growth pace since 2009. In the first month of 2016, however, a positive sign was detected. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesian cement sales rose 4.4 percent (y/y) to 5.14 million tons in January 2016 (from the same month one year earlier) on the back of government-led infrastructure development.
As cement sales in Indonesia are expected to rise nearly 10 percent (y/y) to 66.4 million tons in 2016 on the back of government-led infrastructure development, investment growth and accelerating GDP growth, three cement producers are set to benefit. The three market leaders in Indonesia's cement industry that should see higher sales are Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and Holcim Indonesia.
The latest data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) show that cement consumption in Indonesia declined 3.8 percent (year-on-year) to 22.9 million tons in the first five months of 2015 (from 23.8 million tons of cement in the same period last year). This fall is the steepest decline in Indonesian cement consumption since 2009 when demand plunged nearly seven percent (y/y) amid the impact of the global financial crisis. The current decline is caused by the country’s economic slowdown and falling commodity prices outside Java.
