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The spotlight is - as usual - on China today as the world's second-largest economy released various macroeconomic data and markets' reaction toward these data will determine where stocks are heading for today. Wall Street will not influence Asian markets because this US financial and investment community was closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day on Monday. Meanwhile, the crude oil price remains low around USD $29 per barrel.
Asian stocks are again in deep red territory on Thursday (14/01), led by Chinese shares (which are on track to enter a bear market) as well as Japanese shares. It means that the rebound that had occurred earlier this week - caused by positive export data from China - was short-lived. The continued slide of oil prices (below USD $30 per barrel) and turmoil in China cause money to flow away from equity and fragile emerging market currencies.
Although oil prices somewhat recovered from 12-year lows on Friday (08/01) on China's rebounding stock market there is concern that Indonesia will not achieve its 2016 oil lifting target as the country's oil producers become less eager to boost production rates amid unattractive oil prices. Yesterday, Brent oil fell to USD $32.16 per barrel - the lowest level since 2004 - after China devalued its yuan and Chinese stocks plunged over 7 percent causing the circuit-breaking mechanism to kick in and even causing a global stock selloff.
Contrary to expectations, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah had a weak start of the new year. On Monday (04/01) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.46 percent to 4,525.92 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.82 percent to IDR 13,943 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The performance of Indonesian stocks is in line with the performance of stocks around the globe. In China stock trading was even halted twice due to its plunging index. What happened today?
Despite winter having arrived, global oil prices are still declining. Today (21/12), Brent crude prices plunged to the lowest level since 2004 on persistent concern about a global supply glut as the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil supplies rose 4.8 million barrels to 490.7 million in the second week of December, while the OPEC's production rate stood at 31.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2015. Meanwhile, oil demand is expected to fall in 2016. For example, oil consumption in the USA is projected to fall to 1.2 million bpd next year, from 1.8 bpd in 2015.
Indonesia will most likely abandon its plans to establish four nuclear plants (with a combined capacity of 6 GW) by 2025. Sudirman Said, Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, recently said there are plenty of alternatives - especially renewable energy - in Indonesia to meet the government's target of 136.7 GW of power capacity by 2025 and 430 GW by the year 2050. Nuclear power is controversial due to health risks, environmental damage and nuclear proliferation (when used as a weapon). The nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 highlighted the risks of tapping nuclear power.
Per 4 December 2015 Indonesia officially rejoined the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), seven years after the country had voluntarily exited the organization as it had turned in to a net oil importer. On the 168th meeting of the OPEC, held in Vienna (Austria), OPEC President (and Nigeria's Oil Minister) Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu welcomed Indonesia back into the organization. At the meeting Indonesia was represented by Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Sudirman Said.
As Indonesia's oil production is expected to rise while a new oil refinery in Tuban (East Java) has started to come online, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources targets to stop imports of diesel fuel altogether and cut imports of gasoline fuel by 30 percent in 2016. The refinery in Tuban is owned by Trans Pacific Petrochemical Indotama, which was recently acquired by Indonesia's state-owned energy company Pertamina.
The government of Indonesia decided to offer more attractive profit sharing schemes in order to lure investors to invest the nation’s oil & gas blocks. In September, the government plans to auction a total of eight oil & gas blocks with a profit sharing of 30 percent to 35 percent for oil, and 35 percent to 40 percent for gas. The majority of profit will still go to the government. Usually, the government offers a 15 percent profit share for oil and a 30 percent profit share for gas to investors.
After a seven-year hiatus Indonesia will rejoin the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a full member in December 2015. A statement on the website of the OPEC states that all members approved reactivating Indonesia’s full membership in the organization. At the next OPEC meeting, scheduled for 4 December 2015 in Vienna (Austria), Indonesia will be formally admitted back into the OPEC.
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The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.
There is few interest from the private sector to participate in Indonesia's oil & gas block tenders. Besides Indonesia's unconducive investment climate (that includes weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty), low global petroleum prices have also managed to curb investors' enthusiasm. In a bid to entice private investors the Indonesian government has decided to change the concept for oil & gas tenders in 2016 from a fixed revenue split to an open bid split scheme.
Elnusa is an Indonesian company that provides services in the upstream oil & gas sector. Although the oil & gas sector has been plagued by low prices, thus curtailing corporate earnings, there is something that makes Elnusa's position strong. Recently, Elnusa purchased a seismic vessel that can be used for marine seismic surveys for oil & gas exploration. In Indonesia only a few companies have the skills and equipment for marine seismic activities (and only a few companies have a seismic vessel). Moreover, Elnusa's new vessel is a modern one that is equipped to conduct high quality surveys in deep sea.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi) emphasized that the government of Indonesia needs to boost development of renewable energy. Although Indonesia contains huge potential for renewable energy (particularly geothermal energy), the share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s total energy use currently stands at around 5 percent only, the remainder being fossil energy. By providing incentives, attractive tariffs and an easier licensing and registration process, the government can generate more investment in this sector.
Indonesia’s crude oil production is expected to increase starting from mid-March 2015 as new oil fields will start to come online this month, including the Bukit Tua oil field (part of the Ketapang block in East Java and which is operated by Petronas Carigali). Over the past two decades Indonesia oil output has declined drastically amid maturing oil fields and the lack of exploration as well as other investments in Indonesia’s oil & gas sector. In 2014, Indonesia produced an average of 794,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).
Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.
The government of Indonesia plans to add new fuel refineries soon after such development has been postponed for many years. Today, Indonesia's total of oil refineries have roughly the same combined production capacity as a decade ago, indicating that limited progress has been made. In fact, domestic oil output has experienced a steady downward trend for almost two decades due to a lack of exploration and investments amid weak government management, bureaucracy, an unclear regulatory framework and legal uncertainty.
Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.
Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?
It remains difficult for Indonesia to achieve oil production targets that are set by the Indonesian government. In fact, it is unlikely that Indonesia will meet this year’s revised oil lifting target of 818,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) as set in the Revised 2014 State Budget. In the first half of 2014, Indonesia recorded an oil production rate of 797,000 bpd only. For almost two decades, Indonesia’s oil sector has been in a state of decline, evidenced by falling production rates, due to a lack of investments and aging oil fields.
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