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Like in most other nations across the world, Indonesia is also experiencing rapid urbanization. Currently, 56 percent of the Indonesian population lives in urban areas (at the start of the century - in 2000 - the figure was 42 percent). Although urbanization is - in theory - an engine of economic growth, Indonesia is not reaping the full benefits of urbanization.
In the World Happiness Report 2015, released by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network on Thursday (23/04), Indonesia ranks 74th in terms of citizens’ happiness. The report measures the degree of happiness in 158 countries around the globe by using six variables: GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity, and freedom from corruption. Although Indonesia climbed two spots in the 2015 Happiness Index, the country still trails behind regional peers.
On Sunday evening (22/06), the third debate between the two presidential candidates of Indonesia - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - took place and was broadcast live on national television by various stations. Through these debates the presidential candidates are able to outline their vision while trying to increase their popularity among the Indonesian electorate (on 9 July 2014 the Indonesian people will vote for their new leader). The theme of this third debate was ‘international politics and national security’.
The government of Indonesia targets economic growth rates in the range of six to eight percent per year in the period 2015 to 2019. By the end of this period, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita should reach around USD $7,000. According to Minister of National Development Planning (Bappenas) Armida Alisjahbana, if these targets are met then Indonesia can escape from the middle income trap by 2019. The middle income trap occurs when growth stagnates after reaching middle income levels.
Indonesia Investments has updated its overview of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) in the Macroeconomic Indicators section. Although Indonesia's GDP growth has slowed in the past two years amid global financial troubles and uncertainty in combination with a number of internal financial weaknesses (the country's wide current account deficit, high inflation and higher interest rate environment), it can still be labeled robust at 5.78 percent in 2013. This overview includes a discussion on GDP per capita and income distribution.
The Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) estimates that between 2015 and 2020 the country needs IDR 7.200 trillion (USD $600 billion) for investments in infrastructure. However, the central government can only supply about 25 percent of the needed investments. These figures are the preliminary results of a study conducted by Bappenas. The study, which focuses on Indonesia's infrastructure development in the period 2015 to 2020, is expected to be completed by March 2014.
Indonesia's domestic consumption is expected to continue its steady growth in the next five to 10 years as Indonesia's rapidly expanding middle class is becoming increasingly consumptive and eager to follow the latest trends (purchasing the latest trendy products). This expanding middle class is the result of robust economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Although currently slowing, the country's annual gross domestic product growth has reached an average of almost 6 percent since 2005.
Attracted by the promising prospects of Indonesia's domestic consumption (with per capita GDP rising strongly), a total of about 100 foreign franchises will enter the Indonesian market in 2013. The most popular investment destination of these franchises is Indonesia's culinary sector. The majority of franchises originate from the United States. Others include those from South Korea, Japan, Australia and Europe. In 2013 so far, more than 170 foreign franchises received approval from the government.
PT Cardig Aero Services (also known as PT CAS) is a leading aviation and food services provider in Indonesia that has been in operation since 1984. PT CAS currently owns five subsidiaries that provide a wide range of services across the aviation support and food solutions. The company is expected to reap the benefits of Indonesia's expanding aviation sector. As Indonesia's per capita GDP is growing steadily, more and more people will use airplanes.
President of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, mentioned in his speech ahead of the Independence Day that Indonesia's per capita GDP is expected to rise to USD $5,000 by 2014. An increasing per capita GDP triggers domestic consumption among Indonesia's rapidly expanding middle class segment and thus forms a catalyst for economic activity in the country. As can be seen in the table below, Indonesia's per capita GDP grew steadily between 2006 and 2012. In 2010, it hit the important level of USD $3,000.
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Standard & Poor’s (S&P) affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BB+/stable outlook. Favorable fiscal and debt metrics as well as moderately strong growth prospects were cited as the key factors supporting the affirmation of Indonesia's sovereign credit rating. On the other hand, moderately weak institutional strength, low GDP per capita and external vulnerability are factors that can negatively influence the rating. S&P also expects that Indonesia's sustainable economic policies will be maintained after the 2014 presidential election.
In 2014, Indonesia is expected to see capital inflow of between USD $1 billion and USD $1.5 billion of funds for investments in the country's car components industry. About 20 to 30 companies are eager to expand or start business in this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy (each investing about USD $50 million). Indonesia's car industry is attractive due to record high car sales in recent years (triggered by strong domestic GDP per capita growth) as well as double-digit export growth (although coming from a low base).
Over a decade ago, economist Jim O'Neill became famous for the introduction of the term BRIC (indicating the promising economic perspectives of Brazil, Russia, India and China). Now the BRICs have lost some of its significance, he has turned to a new acronym: MINT. These MINT countries - consisting of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - share a number of features that make them potential giant economies in the future: promising demographic structure, strategic geographical location, and commodity-rich soil.
Forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 and beyond have been revised down by all institutions, including the Indonesian government and central bank as well as international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Initially, the country’s economic growth was expected to reach around 6.5 percent in 2013. However, most institutions have downgraded forecasts for the country’s economic growth to below the 6.0 percent mark.
In mid-September 2013, South Korean tire producer Hankook Tire, conducted the inauguration of its tire plant in Indonesia. The factory is located in Cikarang (West Java) and is the company's seventh production center in the world: two plants in Korea, three in China and one in Hungary. Annual production capacity of the two factories in Korea reached 46.1 million tires in 2013. Meanwhile, the three factories in China have an annual capacity of 30.8 million units each. In Hungary, annual capacity stands at 12.6 million tire units.
The economy of Indonesia is booming with gross domestic product (GDP) surpassing six percent on an annual basis. And the country's strong economic fundamentals are confirmed by increasing international attention. But within the context of this economic growth it is important to take a look at whether economic growth is shared by all segments of Indonesian society. If, for example, only the higher classes of Indonesia would benefit from the economic boom, it could give rise to social issues in the future.
Foreign investment in Indonesia has maintained its steady pace in the first quarter of 2013. Ahead of next year's presidential and legislative elections, which trigger uncertainties about the future course of the country, foreigners have bought more Indonesian stocks in Q1-2013 than in the four quarters of 2012 combined. Moreover, foreign direct investments (FDIs) have increased by 27 percent (YoY) in Q1-2013 and show an interesting shift towards Indonesia's manufacturing sector.
In my previous column, I outlined the emergence of a new and promising class of Indonesian consumers that is most likely to bring a positive effect on the country's economic growth in the years ahead. I also pointed out that the level of prosperity of a population is an influential factor towards the state (and future) of democracy in a country: the wealthier a population becomes in terms of per capita GDP, the longer the life expectancy of its democracy will be.
A fresh breeze is blowing on the face of the Indonesian economy. One that is characterized by the projected growth of a new class of Indonesian consumers that seems promising in the years ahead. This new consumer force certainly brings a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth as domestic consumption has always been a pillar of economic support for the country. Agung Budiono, analyst at Jakarta-based Pol-Tracking Institute, takes a closer look at the topic.
Within a timespan of a few years only, Matahari Department Store has shown impressive growth. Its market capitalization increased from IDR 146 billion (US $15 million) in late 2008 to a current IDR 31.95 trillion (US $3.28 billion). The company, which sells fashion apparel, accessories and beauty products, is now the largest company in Indonesia's retail sector, outperforming other giant retailers, such as Alfa Supermarket or Hero Supermarket.
