Based on data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), the volatile food group recorded deflation of 0.53 percent (m/m), hence extending last month's deflation of 0.67 percent (m/m) as food prices are still recovering after the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Lower food prices were mainly caused by easing prices of chicken meat, shallots, onion, eggs, and cayenne pepper. Also on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, food inflation is remarkably low for Indonesian standards, touching only 0.19 percent (y/y) in October.

Another reason that explains low overall inflation in Indonesia is controlled administered prices. This group recorded deflation of 0.01 percent (m/m) in October, slowing down from a pace of 0.15 percent (m/m) in the preceding month. Deflation of administered prices is primarily attributed to decreasing airfares. Annually, inflation of administered prices has now reached 8.68 percent (y/y), a high figure due to the government's electricity tariff reform program.

Indonesian core inflation fell to 0.17 percent (m/m) in October, down from 0.35 percent (m/m) in September 2017. On an annual basis, Indonesian core inflation in October was recorded at 3.07 percent (y/y).

Indonesia's annual inflation rate has now eased for a fourth-consecutive month in October 2017, touching its lowest level since January. Indonesian headline inflation eased to 3.58 percent (y/y) in October, compared with 3.72 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.

Inflation in Indonesia:

Month M/M Growth
      2013
M/M Growth
      2014
M/M Growth
      2015
M/M Growth
      2016
M/M Growth
      2017
January      1.03%      1.07%     -0.24%      0.51%      0.97%
February      0.75%      0.26%     -0.36%     -0.09%      0.23%
March      0.63%      0.08%      0.17%      0.19%     -0.02%
April     -0.10%     -0.02%      0.36%     -0.45%      0.09%
May     -0.03%      0.16%      0.50%      0.24%      0.39%
June      1.03%      0.43%      0.54%      0.66%      0.69%
July      3.29%      0.93%      0.93%      0.69%      0.22%
August      1.12%      0.47%      0.39%     -0.02%     -0.07%
September     -0.35%      0.27%     -0.05%      0.22%      0.13%
October      0.09%      0.47%     -0.08%      0.14%      0.01%
November      0.12%      1.50%      0.21%      0.47%
December      0.55%      2.46%      0.96%      0.42%
Total      8.38%      8.36%      3.35%      3.02%      2.67%

Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)

Inflation in Indonesia and Central Bank (BI) Target 2008-2016:

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inflation
(annual % change)
 9.8  4.8  5.1  5.4  4.3  8.4  8.4  3.4  3.0
BI Target
(annual % change)
 5.0  4.5  5.0  5.0  4.5  4.5  4.5  4.0  4.0

Source: Bank Indonesia

Bahas