The terrorist attacks in Paris last week are not expected to jeopardize Indonesia's trade with France or the European Union. France is expected to tighten the flow of people, but not the flow of goods after the terrorist attacks on Friday (13/11) that led to the deaths of at least 129 people as well as hundreds of injured people. In 2014 trade between Indonesia and France totaled USD $2.35 billion, down 11 percent from the preceding year. Indonesian exports to France stood at USD $1.02 billion (exports only involved non-oil & gas products), while Indonesia's imports from France stood at USD $1.33 billion in 2014.

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For the eleventh consecutive month Indonesia posted a trade surplus. With exports reaching a total of USD $12.08 billion, while imports were USD $11.07 billion, the country posted a USD $1.01 billion trade surplus in October, the country's statistics agency (BPS) stated on Monday (16/11). The surplus was larger than expected due to a sharp drop in imports. Although the trade surplus is good news as it supports the value of the rupiah and helps to curtail the country's current account balance, there remain concerns about rapidly plunging exports and imports.

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Neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia membaik karena neraca perdagangan non minyak & gas (migas) yang lebih kuat. Defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia menurun menjadi 4,0 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), atau 1,86% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), di kuartal ketiga tahun 2015. Performa ini jauh lebih baik dari defisit 7,0 miliar dollar AS (3,02% dari PDB) yang tercatat di kuartal 3 tahun 2014 atau 4,2 miliar dollar AS (1,95% dari PDB) di kuartal 2 tahun 2015. Sementara itu, neraca pembayaran menunjukkan defisit sebesar 4,6 miliar dollar AS, naik dari defisit 2,93 miliar di kuartal sebelumnya.

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US-based bond credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said it would be credit-positive for Indonesia's sovereign credit rating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal as participation would mitigate the negative effects of sluggish commodity prices on Indonesia's export performance. Through the TPP, which is one of the world's most ambitious trade deals covering an area that accounts for about 40 percent of world trade, Indonesia will expand its export base, Moody's wrote in a recent report.

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During his state visit to the USA, Indonesian President Joko Widodo told US President Barack Obama that Indonesia intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Currently, 12 countries have joined the TPP, including the USA and Japan, thus creating the world's largest free trade area (an area that covers about 40 percent of world trade). By many analysts the TPP is regarded a counterbalance to the big economic influence of China.

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Indonesia posted the ninth consecutive monthly trade surplus. Today, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia posted a USD $433.8 million trade surplus in August 2015, slightly below analysts’ forecasts and well below the (revised) USD $1.38 billion trade surplus Southeast Asia’s largest economy had posted in the preceding month.

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Indonesia’s trade balance surplus widened to USD $1.33 billion in July 2015, improving markedly from the USD $528 million trade surplus in the preceding month and being much higher than expectations of analysts. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s July exports fell 19.2 percent (y/y) to USD $11.4 billion, while imports plunged 28.4 percent (y/y) to USD $10.1 billion. The trade surplus is positive as it supports a narrowing current account deficit (which stood at 2.1 percent of GDP in Q2-2015).

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Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan 477 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada bulan Juni 2015, surplus perdagangan ke-7 secara beruntun. Meskipun begitu, menurut data terakhir dari BPS, diterbitkan pada hari Rabu (14/07), ekspor Indonesia pada Juni ini jatuh 12,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 13,4 miliar dollar AS, sementara impor jatuh 17,4% (year-on-year) menjadi 12,9 miliar dollar AS. Angka-angka ini menunjukkan bahwa surplus perdagangan Indonesia terutama disebabkan oleh permintaan domestik yang lemah dan lebih melambat daripada permintaan global (yang terus melambat juga). Kondisi ini meningkatkan kekuatiran mengenai pertumbuhan perekonomian domestik dan global.

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Salah satu alasan mengapa ekspansi perekonomian Indonesia telah melambat di beberapa tahun terakhir adalah karena performa ekspor yang lemah. Akibat melambatnya pertumbuhan perekonomian global, terutama melambatnya pertumbuhan di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (salah satu mitra dagang utama Indonesia), permintaan global untuk komoditi dan produk lain telah menurun. Indonesia, sebuah negara eksportir komoditi penting, segera merasakan dampak dari jatuhnya permintaan.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) announced today (15/06) that Indonesia posted a USD $950 million trade surplus in May 2015, the sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus and higher than the earlier projected USD $600 million. Although the trade surplus is positive news, a closer look at the data shows that domestic and global activity has weakened as Indonesian imports fell 21.4 percent (y/y) to USD $11.6 billion, while exports fell 15.2 percent to USD $12.6 billion in May, the eight straight month of falling imports and exports.

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The big news story today is that US tariffs on USD $34 billion worth of Chinese goods came into effect this morning (06/07). Considering China immediately imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports, it means we are witnessing the start of the global trade war. There have been major concerns over simmering trade tensions ever since US President Donald Trump announced steep steel and aluminum tariffs back in late-February 2018. Now, however, the trade war has really arrived.

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Indonesia on Sunday (06/05) for a two-day visit. Part of the visit was a meet up with Indonesian President Joko Widodo (at the Presidential Palace in Bogor) to discuss bilateral trade and investment. Key points on the agenda were the strengthening of trade between both nations and enhanced cooperation on infrastructure development projects in Indonesia, including dams and railways.

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Indonesia may file a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Vietnam's recent decision to tighten regulations related to car imports. Through Decree No. 116/2017/ND-CP on Overseas Vehicle Type Approval (VTA) (which has been in effect since 1 January 2018), Vietnam requires car exporters to obtain VTA certification first (from authorities in the exporting nation) before being allowed to export cars into Vietnam. This VTA details incoming vehicles' quality, safety and environmental protection.

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On Wednesday (18/04) Indonesian Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto met Norwegian Minister of Fisheries Per Sandberg to discuss trade. In the meeting Hartarto requested easier access for several Indonesian products on the Norwegian market. For example, lower tariffs for textiles and footwear. Meanwhile, Indonesia also wants to keep access to Norway for products that are derived from palm oil. Recently, Norway's parliament voted to ban the public procurement and use of palm oil-based biofuel.

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At the Indonesia-Africa Forum (IAF), held on 10-11 April 2018 in Bali, Indonesia agreed to negotiate preferential trade agreements (PTAs) with three African countries: Mozambique, Morocco, and Tunisia. Trade talks are part of a strategy to widen Indonesia's export markets. Considering heightened concerns over global trade as the USA and China - the two biggest trade partners of Indonesia - are implementing tariffs, Indonesia seeks to tap new markets, hence reducing its dependence on traditional export markets thus reducing the impact of US-China related trade turmoil.

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In the April 2018 edition of its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, the World Bank is cautiously optimistic about economic growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP). After a better-than-expected global economy in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to remain stable in 2018, reflected by solid prospects in Thailand and several commodity exporters, notably Indonesia. Domestic demand is estimated to remain robust in most of the region's economies and continue to underpin growth in 2018 and beyond. However, with economies operating close to their potential, price pressures are expected to rise.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull have intensely discussed negotiations surrounding the creation of the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA). Both leaders met at the sidelines of a special summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders in Sydney (Australia) this weekend.

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The trade balance of Indonesia showed another deficit in February 2018, the nation's third consecutive monthly trade deficit. Based on data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), the country's total exports reached USD $14.1 billion in February, up 10.1 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, while total imports grew 25.2 percent (y/y) to USD $14.2 billion.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it expects to see another monthly trade deficit - approximately USD $230 million - in February 2018. If so, it would be the third straight monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy after a USD $220 million deficit in December 2017 and a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018 (the latter being the country's highest monthly deficit since April 2014).

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In line with the increase in domestic economic activity, Indonesia's trade balance recorded a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018. The deficit was particularly attributed to a shrinking surplus of the country's non-oil & gas trade balance. Although Indonesia's oil & gas deficit declined in the first month of 2018, it was not enough to offset the impact of the shrinking non-oil & gas surplus. Hence the country posted its second consecutive monthly trade deficit.

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