Although global media focus on the vicious terrorist attacks that occurred today in Jakarta, the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) made a surprise move by cutting its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the January policy meeting. It is a surprise as Bank Indonesia emphasized repeatedly that it is primarily focused on rupiah stability while - amid severe market volatility (due to economic turmoil in China) - the rupiah remains under pressure.

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On Wednesday (13/01) Indonesia's central bank is set to start its monthly policy meeting. A novelty this year is that the monthly policy meetings of Bank Indonesia will take two days instead of one. Another interesting novelty is that Bank Indonesia invited Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution to attend the central bank's first policy meeting of 2016. Analyst opinions about whether Bank Indonesia has room to cut its relatively tight monetary policy are mixed.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mengumumkan bahwa cadangan devisa negara ini telah meningkat tajam pada bulan Desember 2015. Pada akhir bulan terakhir tahun 2015 aset devisa tercatat sebesar 105,9 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), naik dari 100,2 miliar dollar AS di bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah hasil yang luar biasa karena ekonomi global dan domestik masih terganggu oleh ketidakpastian dan arus modal yang volatil (pada bulan Desember Federal Reserve akhirnya menaikkan Fed Fund Rate utamanya sebesar 25 poin basis).

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Kabar baik di awal tahun baru. Keyakinan konsumen di Indonesia telah meningkat pada bulan Desember 2015 menurut survei Bank Indonesia terbaru. Optimisme konsumen berarti konsumen lebih cenderung untuk membeli barang sehingga memberikan amunisi untuk percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi (konsumsi domestik menyumbang sekitar 55% dari total pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia). Porsi pendapatan yang digunakan oleh responden untuk konsumsi naik 0,6% pada basis month-to month (m/m) menjadi 69% dari pendapatan mereka.

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Rupiah Indonesia meneruskan penguatan yang luar biasa pada hari Selasa (22/12). Mata uang ini naik 0,98% menjadi Rp 13.672 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pukul 11:10 Waktu Indonesia Barat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Rupiah telah pulih dari level rendahnya pada Rp 14.123 per dollar AS pada hari Senin 14 Desember menjadi Rp 13.672 per dollar AS, naik 3,2% dalam waktu sekitar satu minggu. Ada beberapa hal yang menjelaskan kinerja yang luar biasa ini.

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Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa realisasi pertumbuhan kredit akan mencapai 9-10% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015, di bawah targetnya pada 11%-13% (y/y). Sampai dengan Oktober 2015 pertumbuhan kredit bank-bank di Indonesia mencapai 10,4%, melambat dari 11,1% di bulan sebelumnya. Juda Agung, Direktur Eksekutif Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI), mengatakan pertumbuhan kredit yang melambat sejalan dengan perlambatan ekonomi.

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Bank Indonesia, bank sentral dari negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara, mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember pada hari Kamis (17/12). Sementara itu, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) tidak berubah pada 5,50% dan fasilitas pinjaman di 8,00%. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh berturut-turut Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah suku bunganya (pada bulan Februari 2015 bank sentral memangkas BI rate sebesar 0,25%).

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia fell slightly in November. According to the latest data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) the reserves stood at USD $100.24 billion at end-November, down from USD $100.7 billion at the end of the preceding month. The reserves fell on foreign exchange receipts, public foreign debt payments and the central bank's efforts to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia to 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 and to 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2016 from previously 4.9 percent (y/y) and 5.4 percent (y/y), respectively. In its latest report on Indonesia, the ADB cited that problems related to budget disbursement and the nation’s weak export performance were the main factors to cut its growth projection for Indonesia - for both 2015 and 2016 - by 0.1 percentage point. In September 2015, the ADB had already cut its growth forecast for Indonesia on the back of negative effects of China’s economic slowdown.

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The latest consumer survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) indicates that consumer confidence in Indonesia has improved - turning pessimism into optimism - in November on expectations of better economic conditions. Bank Indonesia's consumer confidence index, which is based on 1,700 household respondents in six major cities in Indonesia, rose to 103.7 points in November from 99.3 points in the preceding month. A reading below 100.0 signals that consumers are pessimistic.

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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at a level of 7.25 percent, with rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility held respectively at 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent. Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and further synergise the monetary and macroprudential policy mix in order to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, that rupiah exchange rate stability is maintained according to its fundamentals and the current account deficit is reduced to a sustainable level.

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After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of Indonesia's September inflation rate. Indonesia has been hit by high inflation since the government decided to increase prices of subsidized fuels at the end of June. High inflation limits its people's purchasing power and as domestic consumption accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's economic growth, it thus impacts negatively on GDP growth, particularly after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) from 5.75 to 7.25 percent between June and September.

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Bank Indonesia amended its regulation concerning the Loan To Value (LTV) and Financing To Value (FTV) ratio for property credit and property-backed consumer loans. The LTV/FTV ratio is the ratio between the value of credit/financing that can be allocated by a bank and the corresponding value of collateral in the form of property when the loan is allocated. Property is real property that includes houses, vertical housing (apartments, flats, condominiums and penthouses), home offices and home stores.

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Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, expects deflation of about 0.9 percent in September 2013. Statistics Indonesia, on the other hand, believes there will be limited inflation this month. Both institutions agree, however, on a forecast of at least 9 percent of inflation over full-year 2013. The bank's September forecast is based on a survey that was conducted in the second week of September. This survey showed that food commodities and government administered prices eased.

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In order to avert a potential bubble in Indonesia's property sector, Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia) is planning to further tighten its monetary policy in the sector. After having raised the minimum down payment requirement on housing loans to 30 percent for first home ownership (thus a loan-to-value ratio of 70 percent) in June 2012, Bank Indonesia now intends to prohibit credits for the purchase of a second, third (or more) house that has not been built yet (still in the preconstruction phase). This new rule is expected to be introduced this month.

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Market participants are waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which will deal with the future of the quantitative easing program. The wait and see attitude of investors made the benchmark index of Indonesia (IHSG) fall 1.20 percent to 4,463.25 points. Few big cap stocks were able to rise and although some second liners were up, it was not enough to push the IHSG into the green zone. The rupiah continued to weaken and foreign investors were again mostly selling their Indonesian assets.

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Rising indices on Wall Street at the end of last week were a major factor behind rising stock indices in Asia, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), on Monday (16/09). For market players this development was a sign to enter the market. Moreover, expectation has emerged that the Federal Reserve will not take any drastic decisions in the FOMC meeting (on 17-18 September) regarding its quantitative easing program. This expectation has calmed down markets. Indonesia's IHSG rose 3.35 percent to 4,522.54 points.

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Despite concerns that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) would weaken on Thursday's trading day (12/09), the index ended 0.17 percent up to 4,356.61 points. Indices on Wall Street and in Asia impacted positively on the IHSG and kept foreign investors increasing their stock portfolios in Indonesia. Moreover, the Bank Indonesia's decision to raise the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent was generally well-received by investors. Banking stocks helped to support the IHSG.

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