Pihak berwenang Indonesia, yaitu Pemerintah dan bank sentral (Bank Indonesia), mengumumkan sejumlah asumsi makroekonomi yang direvisi untuk 2015 dan 2016. Mungkin yang paling penting adalah bahwa asumsi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2016 telah diturun pada cakupan 5,5-6,0% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), turun dari asumsi sebelumnya yaitu 5,8-6,2% (y/y). Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro juga menyatakan bahwa Pemerintah akan mengasumsikan rupiah pada Rp 13.000-13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk tahun 2016.

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Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.

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Sejalan dengan prediksi pasar, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tidak mengubah suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) yang tetap pada 7,50% di hari Kamis (18/06). Bank Indonesia tetap berkomitmen pada posisi moneternya yang relatif ketat dalam usaha melawa percepatan inflasi, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia yang lebar, dan mendukung rupiah yang sedang melemah. Bank sentral juga menetapkan tingkat fasilitas simpanan bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%.

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Saham Indonesia naik kembali pada hari Selasa (16/06). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,72% menjadi 4.872,60 poin dikarenakan oleh pembelian bersih netto oleh pihak asing. IHSG naik kembali dari posisi kemarin yang merupakan level terendah selama 13 bulan terakhir. Para investor jangka menengah dan panjang kini memiliki kesempatakan besar untuk menemukan saham pada harga murah (terutama saham yang tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh melemahnya rupiah).

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) diprediksi tidak akan mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang akan dilaksanakan hari Kamis. Pada saat ini suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI rate) berada pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00%. Bank sentral tampaknya berkomitmen pada tingkat suku bunga yang relatif tinggi ini karena inflasi Indonesia telah naik menjadi 7,15% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan Mei, sementara rupiah menyentuh level terendah selama 17 tahun terakhir pada 9 Juni 2015.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) announced today (15/06) that Indonesia posted a USD $950 million trade surplus in May 2015, the sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus and higher than the earlier projected USD $600 million. Although the trade surplus is positive news, a closer look at the data shows that domestic and global activity has weakened as Indonesian imports fell 21.4 percent (y/y) to USD $11.6 billion, while exports fell 15.2 percent to USD $12.6 billion in May, the eight straight month of falling imports and exports.

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In line with the performance of most other stock indices in Asia today (15/06), Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell over one percent in the first trading session. Primary reasons for this weak performance are concerns about stalled negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone creditors. Negotiations broke down without a deal on the bailout aid causing raising worries about a Greek default on its debt (a payment is due at the end of this month) as well as a Greek exit from the Eurozone (“Grexit”).

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Car sales in Indonesia have declined 17 percent to 443,328 units in the first five months of 2015 according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo), hence providing further confirmation that consumer demand has continued to fall amid the country’s slowing economic growth, depreciating rupiah and accelerating inflation. Car sales are one of the key indicators to measure people’s purchasing power as well as the general state of the economy.

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Immediately after the opening of trade on Wednesday (10/06), Indonesian stocks rebounded sharply. Yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had fallen 2.30 percent due to worries about looming higher US interest rates later this year, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone, heavy rupiah depreciation, and weak domestic macroeconomic data (such as Indonesia’s high inflation, disappointing Q1-2015 economic growth, the still wide current account deficit, and the central bank’s falling forex reserves).

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated sharply on Monday (07/07) due to the strong performance of presidential candidate Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the presidential debate with rival candidate Prabowo Subianto last Saturday evening. Indonesian media declared Jokowi the winner of the debate because of his confident, eloquent and well-structured performance. This debate, in which the candidates were joined by their running mates, was the fifth and final one ahead of the presidential election on Wednesday 9 July.

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Emerging currencies in Asia, led by the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, strengthened in the past week on positive economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Companies in the US added more jobs than expected in June 2014, while manufacturing in China grew at its fastest pace in 2014. Improving economies of the US and China are important for Asian countries as it boosts Asian exports. Moreover, Indonesian inflation and trade data contributed to positive market sentiments.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated slightly on Thursday (03/07). The US dollar gained as markets reacted to Wednesday’s ADP nonfarm payrolls report which showed that 281,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in June 2014, thus exceeding expectations. Furthermore, the market is optimistic that US employment data, released later today, will be positive too. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Indonesia depreciated 0.04 percent to IDR 11,918 per US dollar.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is appreciating sharply on Monday (30/06). By 15:13pm local Jakarta time, the currency of Indonesia had strengthened 1.31 percent to IDR 11,838 against the US dollar. Main factors that cause this performance are the weakening US dollar (as a slowdown in the US economic recovery evokes expectations that the Fed Rate will not be raised soon) and falling oil prices; the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate declined 30 cents to USD $105.44 in mid-morning trade while Brent crude fell 22 cents to USD $113.08.

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Although the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.86 percent to IDR 11,995 per US dollar on Friday (27/06) as economic data from China, South Korea and Taiwan sparked optimism that regional growth has picked up, the recent depreciating trend of Indonesia’s currency burdens the country’s manufacturing industry. This industry is still dependent on imports of raw materials, capital goods and auxiliary materials, which are paid using US dollars causing the domestic industry to feel the financial impact of a weaker rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,099 per US dollar on Thursday (26/06) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, thus extending its recent weakening trend. This trend is expected to continue further as Bank Indonesia said it would allow rupiah depreciation in order to make the country’s exports more competitive (in an attempt to curb the current account deficit). However, this also dampens demand for Indonesian bonds. The 10-year yield rose to the highest level since February 2014.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably on Wednesday (25/06) after Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) said it would allow rupiah depreciation in an attempt to boost competitiveness of the country’s exports, while curbing imports. This strategy will have a positive impact on the country’s troubled trade balance. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had weakened 0.67 percent to IDR 12,070 per US dollar by 14:30pm local Jakarta time.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,992 per US dollar on Monday (23/06) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, thus extending the currency’s recent depreciating trend. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (known as the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, or, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 11,971 against the greenback. What were the factors that influenced the rupiah’s performance today?

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 0.34 percent to 4,847.70 points on Friday (20/06). Trade was thin on this week’s last trading day with only about 3.4 billion shares - valued at IDR 3.8 trillion (USD $319 million) - being traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (well below the average daily value of IDR 6.1 trillion). Foreign investors accounted for 48 percent of total trading, recording net buying worth of IDR 31.3 billion (USD $2.6 million).

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After the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate temporarily surpassed the psychological boundary of IDR 12,000 per US dollar on Wednesday (18/06), concerns about the fundamentals of the currency emerged. The currency has been under pressure recently due to external factors (monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in Iraq) and domestic factors (large private debt, significant US dollar demand, the wide trade deficit and political uncertainty ahead of the presidential election).

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