Pihak berwenang Indonesia, yaitu Pemerintah dan bank sentral (Bank Indonesia), mengumumkan sejumlah asumsi makroekonomi yang direvisi untuk 2015 dan 2016. Mungkin yang paling penting adalah bahwa asumsi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2016 telah diturun pada cakupan 5,5-6,0% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), turun dari asumsi sebelumnya yaitu 5,8-6,2% (y/y). Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro juga menyatakan bahwa Pemerintah akan mengasumsikan rupiah pada Rp 13.000-13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk tahun 2016.

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Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.

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Sejalan dengan prediksi pasar, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tidak mengubah suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) yang tetap pada 7,50% di hari Kamis (18/06). Bank Indonesia tetap berkomitmen pada posisi moneternya yang relatif ketat dalam usaha melawa percepatan inflasi, membatasi defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia yang lebar, dan mendukung rupiah yang sedang melemah. Bank sentral juga menetapkan tingkat fasilitas simpanan bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%.

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Saham Indonesia naik kembali pada hari Selasa (16/06). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,72% menjadi 4.872,60 poin dikarenakan oleh pembelian bersih netto oleh pihak asing. IHSG naik kembali dari posisi kemarin yang merupakan level terendah selama 13 bulan terakhir. Para investor jangka menengah dan panjang kini memiliki kesempatakan besar untuk menemukan saham pada harga murah (terutama saham yang tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh melemahnya rupiah).

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) diprediksi tidak akan mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur yang akan dilaksanakan hari Kamis. Pada saat ini suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI rate) berada pada 7,50%, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) pada 5,50%, dan suku bunga lending facility pada 8,00%. Bank sentral tampaknya berkomitmen pada tingkat suku bunga yang relatif tinggi ini karena inflasi Indonesia telah naik menjadi 7,15% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan Mei, sementara rupiah menyentuh level terendah selama 17 tahun terakhir pada 9 Juni 2015.

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Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia) announced today (15/06) that Indonesia posted a USD $950 million trade surplus in May 2015, the sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus and higher than the earlier projected USD $600 million. Although the trade surplus is positive news, a closer look at the data shows that domestic and global activity has weakened as Indonesian imports fell 21.4 percent (y/y) to USD $11.6 billion, while exports fell 15.2 percent to USD $12.6 billion in May, the eight straight month of falling imports and exports.

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In line with the performance of most other stock indices in Asia today (15/06), Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell over one percent in the first trading session. Primary reasons for this weak performance are concerns about stalled negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone creditors. Negotiations broke down without a deal on the bailout aid causing raising worries about a Greek default on its debt (a payment is due at the end of this month) as well as a Greek exit from the Eurozone (“Grexit”).

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Car sales in Indonesia have declined 17 percent to 443,328 units in the first five months of 2015 according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers Association (Gaikindo), hence providing further confirmation that consumer demand has continued to fall amid the country’s slowing economic growth, depreciating rupiah and accelerating inflation. Car sales are one of the key indicators to measure people’s purchasing power as well as the general state of the economy.

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Immediately after the opening of trade on Wednesday (10/06), Indonesian stocks rebounded sharply. Yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had fallen 2.30 percent due to worries about looming higher US interest rates later this year, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone, heavy rupiah depreciation, and weak domestic macroeconomic data (such as Indonesia’s high inflation, disappointing Q1-2015 economic growth, the still wide current account deficit, and the central bank’s falling forex reserves).

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.62 percent to IDR 11,893 per US dollar on Tuesday (17/06), a four-month low. The main reason behind this poor performance is increased concern about the impact of violence in northern Iraq - namely higher global oil prices - on Indonesia’s trade and budget deficits as Indonesia subsidises a significant amount of domestic fuels). As oil and gas imports accounted for about 23 percent of total imports of Indonesia in April 2014.

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As the market already expected that Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) would be kept at 7.50 percent in June 2014, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate did not undergo any significant fluctuations on Friday’s trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.05 percent to IDR 11,796 per US dollar by 16:25pm local Jakarta time. The US dollar had to cope with some pressures due to US retail sales (rising only +0.3 percent in May 2014) and weaker US jobless claims data.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated slightly on Wednesday (11/06). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Southeast Asia’s largest economy appreciated 0.04 percent to IDR 11,810 per US dollar. Reuters reported that the euro zone's monetary easing in combination with the recent improvement in China's economy offset the impact of higher US yields on Asia. However, investors are still waiting for several data, including the BI interest rate, the Eurozone’s industrial production, and US retail sales.

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It was interesting to follow the performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) on Thursday (05/06) as it managed to enter the green zone just minutes ahead of closing. Most of the trading day, the index had been in the red zone as Asian stock indices were mostly down on concerns about economic growth in China, the world's second largest economy. Furthermore, investors are still cautiously following the recent depreciating trend of the Indonesian rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 11,860 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Thursday (05/06). However, this is not expected to be the start of an appreciating trend for the currency as there are still various domestic and international factors that place pressure on the rupiah. Contrary to the Bloomberg Index, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 11,874 against the US dollar today.

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Although Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri provided positive news to the market by stating that the country's trade deficit (and co-related current account deficit) will probably not be as large in the second quarter of 2014 (as compared to the same quarter in 2013) as well as an expected increase in Indonesian banks' consumer credit, the benchmark stock index (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was unable to rise on Wednesday's trading day (04/06). Particularly local investors were eager to sell their Indonesian shares.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate further on Wednesday (04/06). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Indonesia had weakened 0.38 percent to IDR 11,855 per US dollar by 15:00pm local Jakarta time. The depreciation occurred due to US dollar demand from local importers for payments and renewed concern about the country's trade balance. Today's performance of the rupiah is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies as investors return to the US dollar on higher US yields.

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Supported by enthousiastic foreign investors, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or also known as IHSG) managed to climb 0.61 percent to 4,942.16 points on Tuesday (03/06). Particularly consumer, trade and mining stocks were popular on today's trading day. It is interesting to note that this growth happened amid sharp rupiah depreciation as the currency still feels the negative impact of the USD $1.97 billion April 2014 trade deficit that was released yesterday (02/06).

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Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite index or IHSG) fell after the market responded to today's release of Indonesia's April trade deficit and May inflation, the index ended in the green zone due to foreign net buying and general positive Asian indices (influenced by higher stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week). Particularly Indonesia's big cap stocks in the miscellaneous industry and consumer sectors were popular as these were relatively cheap after having tumbled at the end of last week.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.77 percent to IDR 11,766 per US dollar on Monday (02/06) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. From the start of trading the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy immediately plummeted as market participants anticipated a trade deficit in April 2014. Last Friday, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that it expects Indonesia to post a deficit in April, whereas earlier statements of the central bank had mentioned a slight surplus.

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