Rupiah Indonesia menguat secara signifikan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (21/12) kendati ada prediksi bahwa rupiah akan menjadi mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia pada tahun 2016 akibat capital outflows (karena suku bunga AS direncanakan akan semakin dinaikkan pada tahun 2016), cadangan devisa Indonesia yang menurun, dan harga-harga komoditi yang terus-menerus rendah. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah menguat 1,13% menjadi Rp 13.760 per dollar AS pada pukul 14:20 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Senin (21/12).

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia Tenggara jatuh pada hari Jumat (18/12), dipimpin oleh indeks-indeks acuan di Thailand dan Indonesia. Pasar-pasar Asia ini mengikuti koreksi global yang terjadi setelah investor mempertimbangkan dampak yang mungkin terjadi dari kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Saham-saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa turun pada hari Kamis dan hari Jumat, sementara harga minyak dan komoditi-komoditi lainnya terus menurun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,92 persen menjadi 4,468.65 poin.

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Setelah reli kuat pada hari Kamis (merespon positif terhadap pengumuman Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate), aset-aset Indonesia melemah pada hari Jumat (18/12) sementara kebanyakan pasar Asia turun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 1,20% menjadi 4.501,34 poin pada pukul 09:45 WIB, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 14.040 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Karena itu, saham-saham Indonesia mengikuti contoh saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) yang jatuh semalam.

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Bank Indonesia, bank sentral dari negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara, mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember pada hari Kamis (17/12). Sementara itu, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) tidak berubah pada 5,50% dan fasilitas pinjaman di 8,00%. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh berturut-turut Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah suku bunganya (pada bulan Februari 2015 bank sentral memangkas BI rate sebesar 0,25%).

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Saham dan rupiah Indonesia merespon sangat positif terhadap keputusan Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate yang menjadi acuan sebesar 25 basis poin pada Rabu (16/12). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melonjak 1,62% menjadi 4.555,96 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 0,44% menjadi Rp 14.009 per dollar AS. Tidak hanya saham di Indonesia tetapi saham global juga sangat naik pada akhir dari ketidakpastian yang berkelanjutan mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS.

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Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) akhirnya memutuskan untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember (15-16 Desember) karena perbaikan yang signifikan pada kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS (tingkat pengangguran di AS telah jatuh menjadi 5%) dan inflasi AS diproyeksikan untuk mencapai target the Fed sebesar 2% pada jangka waktu menengah. Setelah pengumuman ini saham AS melonjak. Pasar negara-negara berkembang tidak mengalami capital outflows besar-besaran setelah kenaikan ini. Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menguat tajam pada hari Kamis pagi (17/12).

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Bursa saham di Asia mengalami cuaca buruk karena para investor menarik dana dari pasar negara-negara berkembang. Pada pukul 11:25 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia telah jatuh 1,11% menjadi 4.344,69 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,54% menjadi Rp 14.068 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para investor mencari aset yang (lebih) aman haven karena Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate (untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade) pada pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) berikutnya (dijadwalkan pada 15-16 Desember).

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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Asian stock indices - including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index which reopened after a market holiday - were mostly in red territory on Thursday (10/12) as investors are cautious ahead of the looming US interest rate hike, expected to be decided upon at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting (15-16 December), as well as low oil prices and falling US stocks overnight. Moreover, the central bank of China allowed its yuan to depreciate further (to a near four-month low), hence resulting in the resurgence of some fears of a currency war in Asia.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate policy unchanged at the March 2017 policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations especially after Bank Indonesia officials had stated that they see few room for monetary easing in the foreseeable future considering the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise its key rate several times this year (which could encourage capital outflows from Indonesia), while inflationary pressures in Indonesia are rising.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged at the January 2017 policy meeting on Thursday (19/01). The benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility rates were maintained at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. The decisions of Bank Indonesia are in line with analysts' forecasts. Due to risks of capital outflows Indonesia's central bank had few room to ease monetary policy.

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The government of Indonesia suspended all cooperation with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the US bank double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating too much on the exact motives behind this drastic move. According to Indonesian government officials this downgrade is excessive and lacks evidentiary support or rational justification. Moreover, they argue this "misleading" downgrade has a big psychological impact on investors and therefore it "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability".

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American multinational finance company Goldman Sachs Group Inc believes Indonesia currently has strong enough economic fundamentals to cope with monetary tightening in the USA. Indonesia is in a better position now compared to 2013 when the taper tantrum (the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program) led to massive capital outflows from emerging markets (and Indonesia was among the biggest victims with the rupiah weakening more than 25 percent against the US dollar in 2013).

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Stock markets in Asia are mixed, yet tepid on Friday (16/12) after the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate regime for the second time in a decade on Wednesday (14/12). Although the Fed's move was widely anticipated (and therefore already "priced in" to a high degree) it still resulted in some capital outflows from Asia's stock markets on Thursday (13/12). Japan, as usual, is the notable exception as US dollar strength (or yen weakness) makes Japan's export-oriented stocks more attractive.

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The Bank of Indonesia recently resorted to a sudden cut in interest rate (by 25 bps to 4.75 percent) at its 20th October 2016 meeting. This followed a 25 bps reduction in September and thus this is the sixth time this year that the Indonesian central bank has elected to loosen monetary policy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI 7-day Reverse Repo rate (RR rate) by 25 basis points to 5 percent at the policy meeting that was concluded on Thursday (22/09). The lender of last resort also cut the Deposit and Lending Facility rates¹ by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Given the stable domestic economy, Bank Indonesia is able to allow a loser monetary policy hence providing more room for accelerated economic growth amid a still uncertain global economic context.

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As expected, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell on Friday (01/07) due to profit-taking after an impressive recent (relief) rally that brought the index into bull market territory earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah maintained its momentum, appreciating 0.72 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar on the first day of the new month, the currency's strongest level in three and a half months. Most Asian emerging markets have now repaired their earlier Brexit-induced losses.

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Over the last few months, we have seen some impressive gains in the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) relative to the US dollar (USD). When we compare the performance of the IDR against the rest of the emerging market space, we can see that its gains are behind only the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) for the period. This has prompted a wave of foreign export purchases as Indonesian consumers look to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent on Thursday (17/03) at its two-day policy meeting. It is the third straight month of monetary easing in Southeast Asia's largest economy. In the preceding two months the lender of last resort had also cut borrowing costs by 0.25 percent, each month. Furthermore, the deposit and lending facility rates were also cut by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent and 7.25 percent, respectively (effective per 18 March 2016).

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