The Indonesian rupiah was under pressure on Tuesday (24/05). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 13,638 per US dollar, the weakest level since early February 2016. However, the Indonesian rupiah is not the only emerging market currency in Asia that was under pressure today. Meanwhile, Asia's emerging market stocks also declined. Negative market sentiments are caused by growing speculation about a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the USA as well as sliding oil prices.

Lanjut baca ›

Both the Indonesian rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) are under pressure on Thursday (19/05) as renewed speculation about a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the USA puts severe pressure on emerging market assets, while the US dollar is appreciating sharply. Based on the minutes of the 26-27 April Federal Reserve meeting, more and more analysts believe that another Fed Fund Rate hike could come as early as June 2016.

Lanjut baca ›

Most emerging market stocks and currencies strengthened today as markets responded positively to Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's dovish statements overnight. Based on her words, the Federal Reserve is not expected to undertake another US interest rate hike soon as the US economy remains fragile amid sluggish global economic growth. As a result Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.74 percent, while the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 1.04 percent to IDR 13,256 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

Lanjut baca ›

In line with the performance of most emerging stock markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah were under pressure on Monday (28/03). The Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.11 percent, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,343 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). This performance is caused by rising speculation that the US Federal Reserve could hike its key Fed Fund Rate as early as April. Several Fed officials have made hawkish comments, while the upward revised 1.4 percent GDP growth of the US economy in Q4-2015 may show that the US is strong enough to cope with another rate hike.

Lanjut baca ›

Asian stocks were mixed after opening on the first trading day of the new week. Energy stocks are mostly down due to another retreat in global oil prices. Oil prices continued Friday's slide due to ongoing concern over excessive supply after last week's US rig count grew for the first time since December 2015. This implies pressure on "commodity-driven" assets, which includes Indonesian stocks and the rupiah. The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.27 percent to IDR 13,152 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), while the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.07 percent by 09:15 am local Jakarta time.

Lanjut baca ›

On Wednesday (13/01) Indonesia's central bank is set to start its monthly policy meeting. A novelty this year is that the monthly policy meetings of Bank Indonesia will take two days instead of one. Another interesting novelty is that Bank Indonesia invited Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution to attend the central bank's first policy meeting of 2016. Analyst opinions about whether Bank Indonesia has room to cut its relatively tight monetary policy are mixed.

Lanjut baca ›

Angka inflasi Indonesia pada bulan Desember 2015 lebih tinggi dari yang diharapkan pada 0,96% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Tingkat inflasi bulanan yang tinggi dikarenakan kenaikan harga makanan dan transportasi selama perayaan Natal dan Tahun Baru. Namun demikian, tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2010 karena hilangnya dampak kenaikan harga bahan bakar bersubsidi pada bulan November 2014 dari angka inflasi tahunan, maka realisasi inflasi jatuh jauh di bawah target pemerintah (5%) dan kisaran target bank sentral (3-5%) pada tahun 2015.

Lanjut baca ›

Tahun lalu Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 12,13% sehingga berakhir pada 4,593.01 poin pada 30 Desember 2015 di tengah ketidakpastian global yang parah akibat ancaman pengetatan kebijakan moneter di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan perlambatan ekonomi yang besar dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Hari ini, Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akan memasuki hari perdagangan pertamanya di tahun baru. Apa yang kita harapkan dari kinerja saham Indonesia di Januari 2016?

Lanjut baca ›

Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengeluarkan pernyataan pada hari Minggu (3/1) yang menyatakan bahwa Indonesia gagal memenuhi sebagian besar target ekonomi yang ditetapkan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P) 2015. Alasan utama dari lemahnya kinerja adalah harga komoditi yang rendah, pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu, perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), dan arus keluar modal yang dipicu oleh pengetatan kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS). Hanya realisasi inflasi dan hasil treasury yield yang sejalan dengan target pemerintah.

Lanjut baca ›

Meskipun tantangan tetap ada, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) diperkirakan naik pada tahun 2016, melebihi level 5.000 poin. Tahun lalu IHSG turun 12,13% menjadi ditutup pada 4.593,01 poin. Khususnya untuk sektor infrastruktur, perbankan, konsumsi, semen, properti dan konstruksi di Indonesia diprediksi akan memiliki kinerja yang baik tahun ini karena percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik yang didukung oleh pengeluaran pemerintah dan paket stimulus ekonomi baru-baru ini.

Lanjut baca ›

Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to hold the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting conducted on Tuesday 17 March 2015. Bank Indonesia said that its decision is in line with its ongoing efforts to push inflation back to the target range of 4±1 percent for both 2015 and 2016, and to guide the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of GDP in the medium term.

Lanjut baca ›

In a surprise move, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to lower its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the Board of Governor’s Meeting on Tuesday (17/02). The deposit facility rate (Fasbi) was also lowered by 25 basis points (to 5.50 percent), while the lending facility rate remained steady at 8.00 percent. In a press release the central bank stated that the current policy direction is estimated to moderate the country’s wide current account deficit further, while inflation remains under control.

Lanjut baca ›

Amid weakening emerging Asian currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate touched a six-year low on Friday (12/12) after US consumer spending rose in November while US jobless claims fell (signalling a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.95 percent to IDR 12,467 per US dollar on Friday. Besides the impact of the US dollar’s bullish momentum, the rupiah also weakened on year-end US dollar demand from local companies for debt payments.

Lanjut baca ›

The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.09 percent to IDR 12,164 per US dollar on Tuesday (25/11) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance is caused by local companies’ month-end US dollar demand as well as US dollar buying by Indonesia’s central bank. Although unconfirmed, it is speculated that the central bank is boosting its foreign exchange reserves ahead of a looming external shock triggered by higher US interest rates in the second or third quarter of 2015.

Lanjut baca ›

Total foreign outstanding debt of Indonesia continues to grow at a robust pace. Based on data from the country’s central bank, total external debt rose 11.2 percent year-on-year to USD $292 billion at the end of September 2014 as private Indonesian companies have been eager to seek lower interest rates abroad. Privately-held foreign debt was up 14 percent y/y to USD $159.3 billion at end-September. Central Bank official Tirta Segara said that private sector debt is concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and mining sectors.

Lanjut baca ›

The current account deficit of Indonesia eased to USD $6.84 billion, or 3.07 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014 (down from USD $8.69 billion, or 4.07 percent of GDP in the previous quarter). This improvement was mainly supported by a solid surplus in the country’s non-oil & gas sector, partly the result of the US economic recovery as well as resumed copper concentrate exports by Freeport Indonesia and Newmont Nusa Tenggara (after successful mining contract renegotiations).

Lanjut baca ›

Although we initially expected that the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) would be supported by the various macroeconomic data (inflation, trade balance, and manufacturing activity) that were released by Statistics Indonesia today, the opposite is what happened. The index went into red territory amid profit taking, although the bond market in fact strengthened and foreign investors recorded net buying at IDR 224 billion (USD $18.7 million).

Lanjut baca ›

Non-bank corporations in Indonesia that hold external (foreign-denominated) debt will be forced to hedge their foreign exchange holdings against the Indonesian rupiah with a ratio of 20 percent in the period 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015 in an effort to limit risks stemming from increased private sector external debt. At end-August 2014, privately-held foreign debt stood at USD $156.2 billion (53.8 percent of the country’s total external debt), increasing three-fold from end-2005 and thus jeopardizing macroeconomic stability.

Lanjut baca ›

The market showed today (27/10) that the composition of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s cabinet did not live up to expectations. On Sunday afternoon, Widodo had announced the names of the ministers inside his Working Cabinet (Kabinet Kerja) after having delayed the announcement for almost a week as several of his ministerial candidates needed to be replaced having been red flagged by the country’s Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). This then heightened expectations that Widodo’s cabinet would constitute a ‘dream team’.

Lanjut baca ›

Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service stated that it maintains a stable outlook for Indonesia’s sovereign and corporate debt rating in the next quarters due to the country’s healthy credit fundamentals, solid macroeconomy, and reduced political tensions. Moody’s believes that Indonesia’s fundamentals are strong enough to offset the negative impact of external pressures such as looming higher US interest rates and slowing economic growth in China. Moody’s had raised Indonesia’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade in late 2011.

Lanjut baca ›