Economy of Indonesia: Inflation, Trade Balance & Manufacturing
On Monday (03/11), several important macroeconomic data were released by statistics Indonesia. Firstly, inflation was relatively high in October at 0.47 percent month-on-month (m/m). Secondly, Indonesia posted another trade deficit in September (USD $270 million). Thirdly, Indonesia's October manufacturing activity showed a contraction (the country’s manufacturing Purchasing Manages' Index fell to a 14-month low of 49.2 in October). Lastly, a total of 791,300 foreign tourists visited Indonesia in September.
Indonesian October Inflation
Based on today’s official data, Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated more-than-average in October 2014. The historic average in October is below 0.1 percent m/m. This October inflation reached the highest level in five years primarily on higher electricity tariffs and volatile food prices. On a year-on-year basis, the consumer price index accelerated to 4.83 percent y/y in October 2014. Core inflation - excluding volatile food and fuel prices - increased 4.02 percent.
Inflation in Indonesia:
| Month | Monthly Growth 2013 |
Monthly Growth 2014 |
| January | 1.03% | 1.07% |
| February | 0.75% | 0.26% |
| March | 0.63% | 0.08% |
| April | -0.10% | -0.02% |
| May | -0.03% | 0.16% |
| June | 1.03% | 0.43% |
| July | 3.29% | 0.93% |
| August | 1.12% | 0.47% |
| September | -0.35% | 0.27% |
| October | 0.09% | 0.47% |
| November | 0.12% | |
| December | 0.55% | |
| Total | 8.38% | 4.19% |
Indonesia’s September Trade Balance
Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit narrowed to USD $270 million in September 2014 from USD $318 million in the previous month. The country’s trade balance has shown a structural deficit since 2011 as imports of costly oil (in order to meet domestic fuel demand) burdens the balance. The oil & gas deficit reached USD $1.03 billion in September, while the non-oil & gas sector showed a USD $760 million surplus.
Indonesian Manufacturing Activity
Indonesia's October Purchasing Manages' Index declined to 49.2 points, a 14-month low, from 50.7 in the previous month. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector. Su Sian Lim, ASEAN Economist at HSBC said: "With both new orders and new export orders looking soft, and work backlogs down for a fifth straight month, the outlook for the sector remains tepid."
Foreign Tourist Arrivals
Statistics Indonesia also announced that a total of 791,296 foreign tourists visited Indonesia in September 2014, a 2.65 percent increase from the same month in 2013. This year so far, 6.9 million foreign tourist arrivals have been registered, an 8.31 percent increase from the first nine months in 2013.
Foreign Tourist Arrivals in Indonesia - 2013-2014:
| Month | Tourist Arrivals 2013 |
Tourist Arrivals 2014 |
| January | 614,328 | 753,079 |
| February | 678,415 | 702,666 |
| March | 725,316 | 765,607 |
| April | 646,117 | 726,332 |
| May | 700,708 | 752,363 |
| June | 789,594 | 851,475 |
| July | 717,784 | 777,210 |
| August | 771,009 | 826,821 |
| September | 770,878 | 791,296 |
| October | 719,900 | |
| November | 807,422 | |
| December | 766,966 | |
| Total | 8,802,129 | 6,946,849 |
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
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