Indonesian October Inflation

Based on today’s official data, Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated more-than-average in October 2014. The historic average in October is below 0.1 percent m/m. This October inflation reached the highest level in five years primarily on higher electricity tariffs and volatile food prices. On a year-on-year basis, the consumer price index accelerated to 4.83 percent y/y in October 2014. Core inflation - excluding volatile food and fuel prices - increased 4.02 percent.

 
Inflation in Indonesia:

Month  Monthly Growth
          2013
 Monthly Growth
          2014
January          1.03%          1.07%
February          0.75%          0.26%
March          0.63%          0.08%
April         -0.10%         -0.02%
May         -0.03%          0.16%
June          1.03%          0.43%
July          3.29%          0.93%
August          1.12%          0.47%
September         -0.35%          0.27%
October          0.09%          0.47%
November          0.12%  
December          0.55%  
Total          8.38%          4.19%


Indonesia’s September Trade Balance

Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit narrowed to USD $270 million in September 2014 from USD $318 million in the previous month. The country’s trade balance has shown a structural deficit since 2011 as imports of costly oil (in order to meet domestic fuel demand) burdens the balance. The oil & gas deficit reached USD $1.03 billion in September, while the non-oil & gas sector showed a USD $760 million surplus.


Indonesian Manufacturing Activity

Indonesia's October Purchasing Manages' Index declined to 49.2 points, a 14-month low, from 50.7 in the previous month. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector. Su Sian Lim, ASEAN Economist at HSBC said: "With both new orders and new export orders looking soft, and work backlogs down for a fifth straight month, the outlook for the sector remains tepid."


Foreign Tourist Arrivals

Statistics Indonesia also announced that a total of 791,296 foreign tourists visited Indonesia in September 2014, a 2.65 percent increase from the same month in 2013. This year so far, 6.9 million foreign tourist arrivals have been registered, an 8.31 percent increase from the first nine months in 2013.


Foreign Tourist Arrivals in Indonesia - 2013-2014:

Month  Tourist Arrivals
         2013
 Tourist Arrivals
         2014
January        614,328        753,079
February        678,415        702,666
March        725,316        765,607
April        646,117        726,332
May        700,708        752,363
June        789,594        851,475
July        717,784        777,210
August        771,009        826,821
September        770,878        791,296
October        719,900  
November        807,422  
December        766,966  
Total       8,802,129       6,946,849

Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)

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