But the peak in sales also occurs now because consumers do not want to postpone their purchases as prices of motorcycles may be raised soon. It is increasingly speculated that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 50 bps in order to mitigate higher inflation (brought on by the recent hike in subsidized fuel prices). A higher BI rate will translate into higher costs for the purchase of a motorcycle (which is often purchased through a loan).

In the first half of 2013, motorcycle sales grew 5.2 percent to 3,939,825 units compared to the first half last year. Honda, having a market share of over 60 percent, is clear market leader in terms of motor cycle sales. In the first six months of 2013, 2,366,417 Honda units were sold. The company that has the exclusive right to sell Honda motorcycles in Indonesia is Astra International. On second position, with a market share of about 32 percent, comes Yamaha. Both Suzuki and Kawasaki play relatively minor roles in Indonesia's motorcycle market.

In total, it is expected that 7.5 million motorcycles will be sold in 2013. At the start of the year, the AISI had forecast 7.1 million motorcycle sales but robust demand resulted in an upward revision of its forecast. However, sales in the second half of 2013 may decline. Besides the expected increase in the price of motorcycles, Bank Indonesia raised down payments for motorcycle purchases from 10 to 20 percent in June 2012 but from April 2013, this regulation also applies to sharia financing.

There are currently more than 65 million motorcycles that fill the streets of Indonesia. Last year, total sales amounted to 7.06 million motorcycle units, significantly lower than the 8.01 million sold units in 2011. The new down payment rules that were implemented partly in 2012 (and 2013) were main reason for the decline in motorcycle sales.

Motorcycle Sales First half of 2013:

Brand    Sold Units
    Market Share
Honda     2,366,417           60.1%
Yamaha     1,279,281           32.5%
Suzuki       213,413            5.4%
Kawasaki        70,200            1.7%
TVS        10,514            0.8%

Motorcycle Sales in Indonesia:

   Year      Sold Units
   2011       8,012,540
   2012       7,064,457
   2013       3,939,825¹

¹ sold units between January and June
Source: AISI & Astra International