And because Indonesia’s import performance has more-or-less been showing stagnation over the past couple of months (although staying at a decent level around USD $16.3 billion), the country’s overall trade balance was able to show an all-time high surplus too in October 2021.

However, we immediately warn that it seems unlikely that Indonesia can continue this impressive export performance in November 2021. Why? Well, as we shall see below, Indonesia’s October 2021 export performance was heavily influenced by the record high coal and palm oil prices in October 2021. However, so far in November 2021, global coal prices have fallen quite considerably (to their weakest levels since July 2021). Hence, while the export performance of Indonesia will – most likely – remain strong in November 2021 because, overall, commodity prices are still high, it will probably not be as impressive as the performance we saw in October 2021.

Meanwhile, the data (released by BPS on 15 November 2021) show that Indonesia enjoyed a USD $5.73 billion trade surplus in October 2021, the highest monthly trade surplus in the country’s history. This is a 60.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase compared to the country’s trade surplus in October 2020 (see the table below), and a 31.1 percent month-on-month (m/m) rise compared to the surplus in September 2021.


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