Which Sectors are Vulnerable to Indonesia's Slowing Lending Growth?
Bank Indonesia (Indonesia's central bank) has expressed that it will support slowing credit growth in the country's banking sector next year in order to foster a more stable financial environment amid a complex external and internal context. In recent years, credit growth in Indonesia has grown over 20 percent annually, while in 2013 it is expected to slow to between 18 and 20 percent amid a tighter policy regime. In 2014, Bank Indonesia targets credit growth between 15 to 17 percent. As a result banks will be more cautious in their lending approach.
Indonesian banks will be more cautious to disburse loans in sectors that are sensitive to higher interest rates or sectors that involve expensive imports. One particular sector that is sensitive to the tighter monetary regime is Indonesia's property sector as Bank Indonesia has made it more difficult to get mortgages for the purchase of second homes. For coal mining companies it is also increasingly difficult to obtain credit loans amid a decline in global demand and global coal prices. Other sectors that are expected to be negatively affected are infrastructure, construction and cement.
Consumer-driven industries (retail and food) are expected to remain attractive for banks' loan disbursements amid continued strong domestic demand (which accounts for about 55 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product).
Between June and November 2013, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) gradually from 5.75 percent to 7.50 percent in order to combat high inflation, curb the country's wide current account deficit and support the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Other tighter policy measures involve higher down-payments, the minimum reserve requirement and loan to deposit ratio.