Exports have always been an important asset to Indonesia's economy. Throughout history, Indonesia recorded a continuous series of trade surpluses. In 2012, however, the country recorded its first ever trade deficit as imports rose (partly due to increased demand of the Indonesian people), while exports declined due to global turmoil and uncertainty. A trade deficit is a new phenomenon to Indonesians and has caused some anxiety in the country.

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Indonesia's heavily depreciated rupiah makes it more difficult for Indonesians to study abroad or to send their children to universities abroad without having the financial aid in the form of a scholarship. For those that are thinking of making such a decision, they need to take into account the performance of the Indonesian rupiah as well as the inflation outlook in the country of destination. So far in 2015, the Indonesian rupiah has depreciated 18 percent against the US dollar, 9 percent against the euro, 14 percent against China's yuan, and 2.4 percent against the Australian dollar.

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On the first trading day of the new week, both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah moved more-or-less sideways. Generally, indices in Southeast Asia were mixed as positive external sentiments were offset by local negative sentiments. In the case of Indonesia, negative local sentiments stemmed from the higher-than-estimated inflation figure in May and continued contraction of the manufacturing industry. Positive market sentiments stemmed from the USA where GDP growth was revised to minus 0.7 percent in Q1-2015.

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Stock markets in Indonesia have been particularly volatile in recent weeks, and this has left many investors wondering about whether or not the rally that started last October is still viable and ready to continue. Last month, the MSCI Indonesia Index (which trades under the stock symbol EIDO) took a large drop - from well above the 6,500 mark to below 6,000. From a percentage perspective, a move like this can generate significant losses for those that bought into Indonesian stocks while they were still at elevated levels.

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There was few good news from a global economic perspective as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its outlook for global economic growth in the next two years. According to the IMF, global economic growth will only reach 3.5 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 3.7 percent in 2016 due to poorer prospects in China, Russia, the Eurozone, and Japan. Economic growth of China (the world’s second-largest economy) fell to a 24-year low at 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, below the government target of 7.5 percent (y/y).

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A total of 35 American companies are interested to invest a combined USD $61 billion in Indonesia over the next five years according to a survey conducted by the Paramadina Public Policy Institute, the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia (AmCham Indonesia), the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia). These 35 US companies have already invested a total of USD $65 billion in Indonesia over the period 2004 to 2012.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly cut its outlook for global economic expansion for both 2014 and 2015. The institution decided to lower its forecast due to weaker growth in Japan, Latin America and Europe. According the IMF’s latest estimate, the global economy will grow 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent y/y, and 3.8 percent y/y in 2015 (down from 4.0 percent y/y in its July estimate). This is the third time this year that the IMF has had to cut its global economic growth forecast.

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Indonesian stocks plunged considerably on Thursday (02/10). The country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 2.73 percent to 5,000.81 points, the largest drop in almost six months. This poor performance was caused by both external and internal factors. Externally, various weak economic data from the USA and Europe as well as an appreciating yen impacted negatively on Asian stock indices. Internally, market participants responded negatively toward the inauguration of the new parliament.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 0.14 percent to 5,198.90 points on the last trading day of the week, the first day of decline in five trading days, as investors engaged in profit taking after Indonesia’s Constitutional Court confirmed the official election result of the General Elections Commission (KPU) that announced Joko Widodo as winner of the July 2014 presidential election. Next week investors may continue profit taking as the index is still overbought.

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Although Asian stock indices tended to decline on Monday’s trading day (07/07) due to profit taking amid expectation that corporate earnings in the first half of 2014 are disappointing, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) performed remarkably well as foreign investors recorded net buying and the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated sharply. The main reason why markets were positive in Indonesia on Monday was the strong performance of Joko Widodo in Saturday’s presidential debate.

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Although initially the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite index or IHSG) fell after the market responded to today's release of Indonesia's April trade deficit and May inflation, the index ended in the green zone due to foreign net buying and general positive Asian indices (influenced by higher stock indices on Wall Street at the end of last week). Particularly Indonesia's big cap stocks in the miscellaneous industry and consumer sectors were popular as these were relatively cheap after having tumbled at the end of last week.

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