This morning various economic data were released in Asia, most importantly data from China and Japan. China posted a record USD $63.3 billion trade surplus in January 2016, while Japan saw its gross domestic product (GDP) contract more-than-expected at 1.4 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, despite weak GDP growth data Japanese stocks managed to surge, while Chinese stocks tumbled after the record monthly trade surplus. How is that possible? And what about Indonesian assets today?

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While global stocks have been moving in and out bearish territory amid severe volatility caused by China's economic slowdown and low oil prices, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is one of the few stock indices that has risen so far in 2016 (2.64 percent since the start of the year). Foreign and domestic investors seem to regained confidence in Indonesian assets due to Indonesia's better-than-expected GDP growth in Q4-2015 and the knowledge that the Jakarta Composite Index already experienced a sharp correction last year, falling below its fundamental value.

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The Indonesian rupiah is appreciating markedly on Wednesday (10/02). By 12:30 pm local Jakarta time, Indonesia's currency had appreciated 1.62 percent to IDR 13,391 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a three-month high. Today, most emerging currencies in Asia are appreciating against the US dollar ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony in US Congress this week. Other factors that support strong rupiah appreciation are speculation that Indonesia will attract investors due to accelerating domestic economic growth and the move of Japan's central bank to introduce negative interest rates.

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In line with the performance of the majority of stock markets in Asia, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.63 percent to 4,768.62 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 13,612 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) on Tuesday (09/02). It was the first trading week for Indonesian assets after a public holiday (Chinese New Year) on Monday. Asian markets weakened today, led by Japan, due to the equities selloff that occurred in Europe and the USA overnight.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are having a great day on Friday (05/02). During the first trading session Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged 2.33 percent to 4,774.68 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.46 percent to IDR 13,577 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:35 pm local Jakarta time. These positive developments are caused by the country's better-than-expected Q4-2015 GDP growth result. This morning it was announced that the Indonesian economy expanded 5.04 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2015.

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The Indonesian rupiah has been under pressure so far today (03/02) on concern that falling oil prices drag down other commodity prices, hence negatively affecting Indonesia's export performance. Yesterday, a global selloff in stocks occurred as oil prices were again touching the USD $30 per barrel mark. Emerging market currencies too are under pressure. The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.79 percent to IDR 13,799 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:55 pm local Jakarta time.

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Asian stocks were mixed on Monday (01/02). However, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.21 percent to 4,624.63 points after a volatile trading day (one hour before trading closed, the index was down more than one percent). Furthermore, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated markedly, while there occurred inflows into bonds. It seems that Japan's surprise move to introduce negative interest rates managed to offset the negative impact of weak manufacturing activity in China and falling crude oil prices.

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With the notable exception of China, Asian stock markets are showing solid gains on Wednesday (27/01) on the back of yesterday's sharp oil price rebound and rising stocks on Wall Street overnight. These factors caused Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index to have climbed 0.70 percent to 4,541.82 points by 12:40 pm local Jakarta time on Wednesday (27/01). On Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate closed at USD $31.45 per barrel, up nearly four percent, giving rise to rising US stocks.

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The new trading week started positively in Asia. After Wall Street had risen sharply on Friday (22/01) due to higher oil prices (particularly causing surging energy stocks), Asia extended the rally on Monday (25/01). In addition, investors are optimistic that the central bank of Japan will turn to more easing (the institution will conduct its monthly policy meeting later this week), while the European Central Bank had already hinted at further easing in last week's policy meeting.

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Again Asian stock markets went into deep red territory. Japan officially entered a bear market (the Nikkei 225 Index plunged 3.71 percent today), Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index hit a more than four-year low after declining nearly 3 percent, while Philippine stocks dropped to a near-oversold level after falling 1.53 percent. At first Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index managed to limit losses. However, towards the end of Wednesday's trading day pressure became too much, hence dropping 1.42 percent.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the March 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate extends its depreciation on Friday (11/04) after market participants showed their concern about Indonesia's legislative election result on Wednesday (09/04). As the election did not result in a clear victory for the PDI-P (the main opposition party which intends to nominate popular Jakarta Governor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo as presidential candidate), the fragmented outcome is expected to lead to continued political uncertainty ahead of Indonesia's presidential election on 9 July 2014.

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Most emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, appreciated against the US dollar on Tuesday (08/04) due to carry trade (meaning the selling of low-yield currencies for higher-yielding assets) and expected stimulus from China's government to boost its economy (Chinese shares in fact gained 2.2 percent on this stimulus speculation). The rupiah appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 11,289 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, partly due to variety of domestic factors.

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.

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The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).

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At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).

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On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, said that its latest annual survey on economic prospects and the business climate in Indonesia indicates an optimistic view. Respondents in the survey, mostly CEOs and Division Heads at financial institutions, companies, government and media, were asked 11 questions about the Indonesian economy, reformation and prospects for the next five years. Andrew Steel, Managing Director Head of Asia Pacific Corporate Ratings Group, presented results of the survey.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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