The government of Indonesia is busy preparing an extra package of policy responses aimed at stabilizing Indonesia's financial markets. Previously, the government had released a sort of 'rescue package' in late August after the rupiah depreciated sharply and the country's stock indices plunged. Panic had emerged due to the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. Coupled with internal issues, it resulted in robust capital outflows from Indonesia. The new package will be released in October.

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Indonesia is expected to replace the United States as the world's largest importer of oil by 2018, unless the country is able to limit domestic oil consumption or boost the nation's oil production. Recently, Indonesia has put more effort in limiting oil imports as these have caused a widening trade deficit. The trade deficit was at a new record high at USD $5.65 billion in the first seven months of 2013, particularly caused by the country's oil & gas deficit (USD $7.6 billion), while the non-oil & gas sector posted a surplus of USD $1.9 billion.

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Indonesia's construction industry, which accounts for about ten percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), is experiencing turbulent times as the sector is impacted upon by three issues, namely higher minimum wages, higher subsidized fuel prices as well as the depreciating rupiah (against the US dollar). Concerns have arisen that a number of projects cannot be finished due to these issues. Moreover, companies may feel forced to dimiss workers in order to keep a healthy financial balance sheet.

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The Federal Reserve's decision not to change its quantitative easing program seems to have led to a bullish market in Asia. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 4.37 percent to 4,658.2 points after the first session on Thursday's trading day (19/09). All sectoral indices were up, with the property sector in leading position. Big cap stocks, in particular, performed well. Investors are relieved that the Fed did not alter its stimulus program. Thus, funds are expected to continue flowing to emerging markets, including Indonesia.

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Despite widespread speculation that the Federal Reserve would tone down its quantitative easing program (QE3) by approximately USD $10 to $20 billion after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18/09), the central bank of the USA decided to continue its monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program as it downgraded its outlook for US economic growth to between 2.0 and 2.3 percent. Chairman Bernanke said that the economic context of the USA is still far from conducive to alter its strategy.

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The outcome of Indonesia's 2014 budget deficit is expected to be higher than initially planned in the 2014 State Budget Draft (RAPBN 2014). In the 2014 draft, the deficit is proposed to amount to IDR 154.2 trillion (USD $13.6 billion), or 1.49 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). However, the government's latest estimate indicates a widening of the deficit to IDR 209.5 trillion (USD $18.5 billion), equivalent to 2.02 percent of GDP. The wider deficit is mainly caused by Indonesia's depreciating rupiah as well as the weak global economy.

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Singapore-based DBS Group, a leading financial services group in Asia, expects Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 5.8 percent in 2013, while it forecasts growth of 6.0 percent in 2014. This year, Indonesia has to cope with ups and downs due to several domestic and foreign factors. According to the institution, two issues stand out as being significantly influential this year. These are the government's decision to increase prices of subsidized fuels in late June and the country's sharply depreciating rupiah.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent respectively on Thursday (12/09). It is the fourth time since June that Bank Indonesia raised the interest rate. Previously, it maintained a historic low BI rate of 5.75 percent for 16 months. The increase is one of the measures taken to control inflation, stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and to ensure that the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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Attracted by the promising prospects of Indonesia's domestic consumption (with per capita GDP rising strongly), a total of about 100 foreign franchises will enter the Indonesian market in 2013. The most popular investment destination of these franchises is Indonesia's culinary sector. The majority of franchises originate from the United States. Others include those from South Korea, Japan, Australia and Europe. In 2013 so far, more than 170 foreign franchises received approval from the government.

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Exports of China in August 2013 surpassed expectations and provides hope that the world's second largest economy is resuming its admirable growth. Overseas shipments were reported to have grown 7.2 percent year-on-year, while analysts expected a 5.5 percent growth rate. In July, China's exports had already recorded a 5.1 percent growth compared to the same month in 2012. On the other hand, imports in China grew slower than had been forecast at 7 percent (YoY). The country's trade surplus reached over USD $28 billion.

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Various factors contributed to the 2.30 percent decline of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) on Tuesday (26/11). The index in fact fell below its support level. What were the main reasons for this weak performance? Firstly, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has been depreciating severely and causes concerns among market players. Secondly, most Asian stock indices fell as valuations climbed high and the Japanese Yen strengthened. Thirdly, European stock openings on Tuesday were weak. All these reasons together led to foreign net selling.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated IHSG) made a positive start on Monday (25/11). Investors were confident amid today's rising indices throughout Asia, brought on by the record breaking Dow Jones Index on Wall Street at the end of last week. However, this market optimism failed to provide a significant boost to the IHSG as the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The IHSG was up 0.39 percent to 4,334.80 points at the end of Monday's trading day.

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On the last day of the trading week (22/11), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) fell 0.19 percent to 4,317.96 points thereby extending its losing streak to three days as investors remain concerned about the looming end - or at least winding down - of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program known as quantitative easing (QE3). Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 38 billion (USD $3.3 million). The other indices in Asia were mixed. The Hang Seng and Nikkei were up but the Shanghai Composite was down.

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On Thursday's trading day (21/11/13), the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, or IHSG) fell 0.56 percent to 4,326.21 points as investors are concerned seeing the result of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which seems to indicate that the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (quantitative easing) will be wound down within a couple of months. The IHSG was also negatively affected by the lower preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI of China.

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The Federal Reserve, central banking system of the United States, expects that the current economic recovery of the USA is set to continue. In the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held at end-October 2013, it is mentioned that within the next few months the Federal Reserve can start winding down its monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (known as quantitative easing). The next FOMC meeting, which will shed more light on the future of the bond-buying program, is scheduled for December 2013.

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Amid falling Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 1.08 percent to 4,350.79 points on Wednesday's trading day (20/11). As has become an usual pattern, after one or two days of gain, market participants immediately engage in profit taking the following day. Investors reacted to the OECD's downgrade of its outlook for global economic growth (triggered by slowing growth in emerging markets) and to Indonesia's central bank's higher interest rate (which impacts negatively on the country's economic growth).

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The government of Indonesia will release two additional fiscal policy packages at the end of November or start of December that both aim to heal Indonesia's current account deficit. The two packages constitute follow ups of the policy package that was released in August 2013. Previously, deputy minister of Finance, Bambang Brodjonegoro, announced that an additional package would be released in October. However, it turned out that the government needed some more time to prepare the two additional packages.

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Various factors contributed to the 1.34 percent rise of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (also known as the Jakarta Composite Index or the IHSG) on Monday (18/11) to 4,393.59 points. Firstly, the index was supported by other major Asian stock indices which all benefited from rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe at the end of last week. Secondly, the IHSG felt the positive impact from speculation that the government of China will reform its economy in order to spur economic growth.

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On Thursday 14 November 2013, Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), delivered his end-of-the-year speech at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner. The meeting was attended by leaders from Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), economic ministers, leaders of the country's banking industry and business community, non-ministerial government agencies as well as a number of international institutions, thus representing a strategic forum in terms of the national economy.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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