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Latest Reports COVID-19
The Indonesian rupiah rate, which had been under extreme pressure amid the start of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020, rebounded in April 2020 and continued this rebound throughout May 2020 (albeit at a less impressive pace).
As expected, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity contracted again in May 2020, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The latest IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (or PMI) rose to a reading of 28.6 points in May 2020, up from the all-time low of 27.5 in April 2020. A reading below 50.0 indicates contraction in the country’s manufacturing activity, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion.
Indonesia’s inflation rate was unusually mild in May 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.07 percent month-on-month (m/m) only.
Most companies and industries have been under huge pressure since the Indonesian government imposed a range of restrictions (specifically on people’s movement and business activities) in an effort to curb the further spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). As most companies experience a massive decline in sales, it has become difficult for these companies to finance their operating costs and expenses. And, the longer the restrictions last, the bigger companies’ financial burdens become.
On Wednesday (03/06/2020) Indonesia Investments released the May 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'in the Eye of the Storm', we focus specifically on the social implications of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on Indonesian society. Hence, unemployment and poverty are two topics that deserve specific attention.
Last month we basically came to the conclusion that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a direct (short-term) positive effect on Indonesia’s trade performance (although the longer term consequences are clearly negative) as Indonesia managed to boost exports (possibly because it filled the gap left by China’s lockdown), while imports into Indonesia fell markedly (partly because of the lower need for inputs for export-oriented output), thus leading to a comfortable trade surplus.
For Muslims the holy fasting month (Ramadan) and subsequent Eid al-Fitr (Idul Fitri or Lebaran) festivities – the traditional week-long national holiday when Muslims celebrate the end of the Ramadan month – are very special and joyful times.
On Monday 20 April 2020 the Investment Coordinating Board (in Indonesian: Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, or BKPM), a government agency, released the latest direct investment data, involving foreign and domestic direct investment in the first quarter of 2020.
Never before did Indonesia’s manufacturing activity collapse so badly in the nine-year history of the IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI than in April 2020. The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plunged to a reading of 27.5 in April 2020 (from 45.3 in the preceding month). It is not only the steepest fall but also the lowest level of operating conditions ever touched since the survey started back in April 2011.
As expected, Indonesia’s inflation rate was quite low in April 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.08 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April.
Latest Columns COVID-19
At its latest monetary policy meeting, which ended on 18 February 2021, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate), again, by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50 percent, touching a historically low level.
In mid-February 2021, Statistics Indonesia (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released its latest poverty statistics. As expected, the data show a worrying rise in poverty across Indonesia, a development that is obviously related to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Governments’ self-imposed social and business restrictions (both at home and abroad), which aim at preventing the further spread of the virus, drag down economic activity in an unprecedented way.
Last month, we started to become a bit optimistic after reading reports that COVID-19 immunization programs were taking off, both in Indonesia (per 13 January 2021) and abroad. Moreover, it was reported that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have an efficacy rate of around 95 percent.
It was a rough first month of the year for Indonesia. Obviously, the COVID-19 crisis persists (and there are signs to assume this crisis will persist throughout 2021) with the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Indonesia now having passed the one million mark.
Another year has passed, and therefore we would like to wish all of our subscribers a happy, healthy, and successful 2021! The transition to a brand new year is also typically a great occasion to look back at the year that has passed and look forward to the one that has arrived (and some may even have made a couple of New Year’s resolutions in an attempt to achieve a certain goal or change a bad habit).
In recent times, almost each year can be called a ‘political year’ for Indonesia as a big number of elections – especially at the regional level – need to be organized in this vast archipelago. Considering there are 34 provinces in Indonesia, containing 514 regents (kabupaten) and cities (kota), we see elections almost every year.
It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.
It came as a big surprise to us to learn that direct investment realization in Indonesia expanded in the third quarter of 2020, both compared to the same quarter one year earlier (Q3-2019) and compared to the preceding quarter (Q2-2020).
Through Manpower Minister Circular Letter No. M/11/HK.04/X/2020, the central government of Indonesia requests all provincial governors not to raise the minimum wages for 2021 as the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on entrepreneurs and business has been severe. The financial pressure (due to missed income) makes it tough for many entrepreneurs to survive. By not raising the minimum wages in 2021, these business-owners would get some air, which means jobs can be saved.
The month October in the year 2020 was another volatile month. At the beginning of the month (which we covered in our preceding report) the passing of the Omnibus Job Creation Law triggered a series of demonstrations that have been continuing up to the time of writing this introduction.
