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The price of rubber rebounded on Tuesday morning (25/07), in line with the strengthening of crude oil prices. The rubber price (December 2017 delivery, the most-active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange), had risen 2.05 percent to 213.60 yen per kilogram (kg) by 10:05 am local Jakarta time, while earlier this morning, rubber prices had in fact fallen 0.62 percent directly after the opening of trade.
The coal price weakened at the end of trading on Monday (24/07). Coal futures (January 2018 contracts, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange), fell 1.84 percent to USD $72.38 per metric ton on Monday, reversing from their performance on the preceding trading session (Friday 21/07) when coal prices rose 0.45 percent to USD $73.74 per metric ton.
Rubber prices tumbled about 2 percent in early trading on Friday (21/07) after surging 4 percent in the previous trading session. The price of rubber for December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), tumbled 1.99 percent (or 4.30 points) to 211.90 yen per kilogram at 07:40 am local Jakarta time. Ahead of this tumble, there occurred a rubber price rally as most farmers held back their rubber stock sales following expectations of higher prices.
The upstream oil and gas industry of Indonesia is plagued by companies' lack of interest in exploration amid low crude oil prices, their eagerness to focus on efficiency strategies, and Indonesia's difficult investment climate. At the 41st Indonesian Petroleum Association Convention and Exhibition in the Jakarta Convention Center on Wednesday (17/05) Christina Verchere, President Director of the Indonesia Petroleum Association (IPA), said low oil prices have been the main reason for reduced investment in oil and gas exploration since 2014.
Stocks are under pressure in Asia on Friday morning (05/05) as metal prices continue to slide, while crude oil prices suffered their lowest close since November 2016 after a near five percent plunge yesterday on concerns of a US oil supply glut with analysts forecasting further losses, hence undermining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s earlier efforts to boost the oil price through production cut agreements (chances of seeing deeper cuts in OPEC nations are slim).
The government of Indonesia appointed state-owned energy company Pertamina to operate eight oil & gas blocks after contracts with existing operators expire in 2018. Indonesia's new gross profit sharing scheme, which replaced the nation's cost recovery scheme, will be applied to the new contracts in 2018. Under the gross profit sharing scheme the Indonesian government and contractors agree up front on the proportion for splitting gross profit from oil and gas exploration (implying that all exploration and production costs are now borne by the operator).
The government of Indonesia is confident that the new gross profit sharing mechanism that is set to replace the cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry in early 2017 is a fairer system for both the oil & gas contractor and the government. Earlier this month, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry announced this change in course. However, the new gross profit sharing mechanism in the oil and gas industry will only be applied to new contracts starting from early 2017.
Indonesia is on track to achieve its (revised) oil lifting target in 2016 (referring to crude oil that is ready for sale). Two weeks before the end of 2016, Indonesia produced an average of 821,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year so far, slightly above the target of 820,000 bpd that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Initially, the Indonesian government targeted national oil production at 830,000 bpd. However, earlier this year the target was revised down to 820,000 bpd.
While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s agreed to cut production (a deal that was joined by non-OPEC members, most notably Russia) at the organization's 171st meeting (held in Vienna on Wednesday 30 November), Indonesia decided to temporarily freeze its OPEC membership as it is reluctant to agree to a five percent cut in national crude oil production. Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan announced this decision.
Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service believes Indonesia's non-financial companies, specifically those engaged in the commodities sector, will see improving corporate earnings in 2017 due to rising commodity prices and the economic recovery of the USA. In a report released on Monday (21/11), Moody's states that commodity prices are expected to continue their upward movement in 2017. This will trigger investment in the mining, oil & gas and crude palm oil (CPO) sectors.
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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.62 percent to IDR 11,893 per US dollar on Tuesday (17/06), a four-month low. The main reason behind this poor performance is increased concern about the impact of violence in northern Iraq - namely higher global oil prices - on Indonesia’s trade and budget deficits as Indonesia subsidises a significant amount of domestic fuels). As oil and gas imports accounted for about 23 percent of total imports of Indonesia in April 2014.
In the past week, the global crude oil price has increased considerably due to geopolitical tensions in Iraq which can disturb oil supplies from the Middle East. Up to the end of 2014, provided that no exceptional developments occur, the oil price is expected to range between USD $105-110 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government announced that, despite the higher oil price putting pressure on the government’s budget balance, it will not increase prices of subsidized fuels this year.
General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.
Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.
Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.
Indonesia has the potential to become a global force in the biodiesel industry because of the country’s position as the world’s top producer of crude palm oil (CPO). In 2014, Indonesia’s CPO production is estimated to total 30 million tons. Traditionally, Indonesia exports about 75 percent of its total CPO production, particularly to the giant economies of China and India. As such, this commodity is one of Indonesia's most important foreign exchange earners, apart from coal, in the non-oil and gas sector.
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.
The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:
Usage of biodiesel for transportation in Indonesia is expected to reach 7.2 million kiloliter by 2015, a sharp increase from 600,000 kiloliter in the first nine months of 2013. State-owned Pertamina is expected to supply the extra 6.6 million kiloliter of biodiesel. The reason why the Indonesian government is eager to develop palm-based biofuel for transportation purposes is to reduce the country's reliance on the import of expensive diesel fuel. Imports of fuels and gas are the foremost reason that Indonesia is coping with a wide current account deficit.
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