Indonesia's construction industry, which accounts for about ten percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), is experiencing turbulent times as the sector is impacted upon by three issues, namely higher minimum wages, higher subsidized fuel prices as well as the depreciating rupiah (against the US dollar). Concerns have arisen that a number of projects cannot be finished due to these issues. Moreover, companies may feel forced to dimiss workers in order to keep a healthy financial balance sheet.

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The Federal Reserve's decision not to change its quantitative easing program seems to have led to a bullish market in Asia. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 4.37 percent to 4,658.2 points after the first session on Thursday's trading day (19/09). All sectoral indices were up, with the property sector in leading position. Big cap stocks, in particular, performed well. Investors are relieved that the Fed did not alter its stimulus program. Thus, funds are expected to continue flowing to emerging markets, including Indonesia.

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Despite widespread speculation that the Federal Reserve would tone down its quantitative easing program (QE3) by approximately USD $10 to $20 billion after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (18/09), the central bank of the USA decided to continue its monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program as it downgraded its outlook for US economic growth to between 2.0 and 2.3 percent. Chairman Bernanke said that the economic context of the USA is still far from conducive to alter its strategy.

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The outcome of Indonesia's 2014 budget deficit is expected to be higher than initially planned in the 2014 State Budget Draft (RAPBN 2014). In the 2014 draft, the deficit is proposed to amount to IDR 154.2 trillion (USD $13.6 billion), or 1.49 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). However, the government's latest estimate indicates a widening of the deficit to IDR 209.5 trillion (USD $18.5 billion), equivalent to 2.02 percent of GDP. The wider deficit is mainly caused by Indonesia's depreciating rupiah as well as the weak global economy.

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Singapore-based DBS Group, a leading financial services group in Asia, expects Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 5.8 percent in 2013, while it forecasts growth of 6.0 percent in 2014. This year, Indonesia has to cope with ups and downs due to several domestic and foreign factors. According to the institution, two issues stand out as being significantly influential this year. These are the government's decision to increase prices of subsidized fuels in late June and the country's sharply depreciating rupiah.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has raised its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent respectively on Thursday (12/09). It is the fourth time since June that Bank Indonesia raised the interest rate. Previously, it maintained a historic low BI rate of 5.75 percent for 16 months. The increase is one of the measures taken to control inflation, stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and to ensure that the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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Attracted by the promising prospects of Indonesia's domestic consumption (with per capita GDP rising strongly), a total of about 100 foreign franchises will enter the Indonesian market in 2013. The most popular investment destination of these franchises is Indonesia's culinary sector. The majority of franchises originate from the United States. Others include those from South Korea, Japan, Australia and Europe. In 2013 so far, more than 170 foreign franchises received approval from the government.

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Exports of China in August 2013 surpassed expectations and provides hope that the world's second largest economy is resuming its admirable growth. Overseas shipments were reported to have grown 7.2 percent year-on-year, while analysts expected a 5.5 percent growth rate. In July, China's exports had already recorded a 5.1 percent growth compared to the same month in 2012. On the other hand, imports in China grew slower than had been forecast at 7 percent (YoY). The country's trade surplus reached over USD $28 billion.

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For the first time since April 2013, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have shown a small growth. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) stated that in late August, the foreign exchange reserves rose to USD $92.99 billion from USD $92.67 billion a month earlier. The growth was a surprise as continued capital outflows from Indonesia's financial markets was expected to translate into lower reserves. Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index fell 2.97 percent, while the rupiah fell 2.55 percent against the US dollar.

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Indonesia's inflation rate in August 2013 was 1.12 percent (month to month) according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This result is rather positive as many analysts projected a higher outcome for August inflation. Last month (July), inflation accelerated by 3.29 percent as the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices was felt in combination with weak government policies regarding food quotas, Muslim celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) as well as the beginning of the news school year.

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Today, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was under pressure from the start of the trading day. It was negatively affected by mixed Asian indices as well as yesterday's mixed American indices (where the Dow Jones Index weakened whereas other American indices gained). It made investors, in particular foreign investors, eager to sell parts of their stock portfolios. At the end of today's trading day, the IHSG stood at 4,994.52, a 0.34 percent fall compared to yesterday.

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Positive moving stock indices in America and Europe on Tuesday (responding to various good corporate Q1-2013 data) were able to offset negative influence caused by weak manufacturing data from China and Europe. As a result Asian indices rose on Wednesday, including the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) which managed to reach beyond the psychological boundary of 5,000 points. The index ended at the level of 5,011.61, a 0.73 percent gain compared to the previous trading day.

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Rising American and European stock indices last Friday, helped to support Asian stock indices today (22 April 2013), including the Indonesia stock index (IHSG). However, the ongoing drama brought on by last Saturday's earthquake in China, impacted on the China stock index as well as on other Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. As the IHSG has been showing signs that it is overbought, market participants preferred to sell portions of their stock portfolios, resulting in a limited fall of the IHSG.

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Despite non-conducive market sentiments, there was no stopping to the Indonesia stock index (IHSG) as it managed to reach its next psychological boundary on Thursday 18 April: 5,000 points. A fall in American energy and telecommunication stocks on the previous day - after corporate data indicated less-than-expected performances in the first quarter - buried hopes that the Dow Jones Index would hit another peak. As a result Asian stock indices were mostly negative.

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Indonesia's main stock index, the IHSG, continued its rally on Wednesday 17 April due to increased US monthly Housing Starts, decreased US inflation, as well as financial results of companies that indicated revenues and net profits exceeded expectations. Moreover, the IMF upgraded its outlook for East Asia's economic, which made investors buy stocks. Within Indonesia, there was enthusiasm regarding Q1-2013 corporate results and dividend payouts, which offset uncertainties about the new fuel policy.

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Most of us expected the Jakarta composite index (IHSG) to weaken on Tuesday 16 April 2013 amid mixed Asian stock indices and significantly weakened American and European indices on Monday (that responded to reports about both China's slowing economic growth and weak economic figures of America). Moreover, bomb explosions at the finish line of the marathon of Boston were expected to complicate the performance of the IHSG. But concerns turned out in vain.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) did not make a good start on the first trading day of the new week. Similar to last week's Monday, it were falling American stock indices on Friday that impacted on Monday's IHSG performance: US Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and commodity prices were topics that were not well-received by market players. Moreover, weak economic data from China made many foreign investor decide to sell their Indonesian assets.

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Rising American stock indices on Wednesday provided solid support for stock indices around Asia the following day, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Amid this global positivity, market players were eager to add stocks to their portfolios. News from Japan, China and the Indonesian central bank's announcement to maintain its low benchmark interest rate were well-received, particularly by domestic market players. It made the IHSG rise to 4,924.26, a 0.96 percent gain.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) decided to maintain its record low policy rate for the 15th straight month at 5.75 percent as it is considered consistent with its inflation target range of 3.5-5.5 percent in 2013 and 2014. The central bank also stated that the global economic recovery is accompanied by many uncertainties which result in a lower forecast for Indonesia's economic growth. The full press release of Bank Indonesia can be read below.

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Although most Asian stock indices went up on Wednesday (10 April 2013), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) could not cling on to their movement. In fact, even the main index of South Korea, a country plagued by political tensions, reported a rise. The IHSG was not able to follow suit due to investors' profit taking. Foreign market participants recorded a net sell, particularly Indonesia's blue chip stocks, which caused the index to end at 4,877.48, a 0.45 percent fall.

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