Rubber prices tumbled about 2 percent in early trading on Friday (21/07) after surging 4 percent in the previous trading session. The price of rubber for December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), tumbled 1.99 percent (or 4.30 points) to 211.90 yen per kilogram at 07:40 am local Jakarta time. Ahead of this tumble, there occurred a rubber price rally as most farmers held back their rubber stock sales following expectations of higher prices.

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The upstream oil and gas industry of Indonesia is plagued by companies' lack of interest in exploration amid low crude oil prices, their eagerness to focus on efficiency strategies, and Indonesia's difficult investment climate. At the 41st Indonesian Petroleum Association Convention and Exhibition in the Jakarta Convention Center on Wednesday (17/05) Christina Verchere, President Director of the Indonesia Petroleum Association (IPA), said low oil prices have been the main reason for reduced investment in oil and gas exploration since 2014.

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Stocks are under pressure in Asia on Friday morning (05/05) as metal prices continue to slide, while crude oil prices suffered their lowest close since November 2016 after a near five percent plunge yesterday on concerns of a US oil supply glut with analysts forecasting further losses, hence undermining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s earlier efforts to boost the oil price through production cut agreements (chances of seeing deeper cuts in OPEC nations are slim).

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The government of Indonesia appointed state-owned energy company Pertamina to operate eight oil & gas blocks after contracts with existing operators expire in 2018. Indonesia's new gross profit sharing scheme, which replaced the nation's cost recovery scheme, will be applied to the new contracts in 2018. Under the gross profit sharing scheme the Indonesian government and contractors agree up front on the proportion for splitting gross profit from oil and gas exploration (implying that all exploration and production costs are now borne by the operator).

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The government of Indonesia is confident that the new gross profit sharing mechanism that is set to replace the cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry in early 2017 is a fairer system for both the oil & gas contractor and the government. Earlier this month, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry announced this change in course. However, the new gross profit sharing mechanism in the oil and gas industry will only be applied to new contracts starting from early 2017.

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Indonesia is on track to achieve its (revised) oil lifting target in 2016 (referring to crude oil that is ready for sale). Two weeks before the end of 2016, Indonesia produced an average of 821,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year so far, slightly above the target of 820,000 bpd that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Initially, the Indonesian government targeted national oil production at 830,000 bpd. However, earlier this year the target was revised down to 820,000 bpd.

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While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s agreed to cut production (a deal that was joined by non-OPEC members, most notably Russia) at the organization's 171st meeting (held in Vienna on Wednesday 30 November), Indonesia decided to temporarily freeze its OPEC membership as it is reluctant to agree to a five percent cut in national crude oil production. Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan announced this decision.

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Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service believes Indonesia's non-financial companies, specifically those engaged in the commodities sector, will see improving corporate earnings in 2017 due to rising commodity prices and the economic recovery of the USA. In a report released on Monday (21/11), Moody's states that commodity prices are expected to continue their upward movement in 2017. This will trigger investment in the mining, oil & gas and crude palm oil (CPO) sectors.

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The Indonesian government now allows private investors to develop oil refineries in Indonesia, effectively ending state-owned energy Pertamina's (virtual) monopoly. Before this new regulation, private companies had to cooperate with Pertamina to build oil refineries in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The new policy is an effort to boost domestic oil refinery capacity in Indonesia (hence limiting the need for refined fuel imports) and improve the investment climate by opening this industry to the private sector. This sector can also apply for tax incentives.

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For a company it is very difficult to start activities in Indonesia's upstream oil and gas sector. As a result, not unoften, activities related to exploration and production are delayed. This is the major reason why Indonesia's oil production has been declining for the past two decades, while Indonesia's gas production today does not differ much from production one decade ago. Why is it difficult for an oil and gas company to get started in Indonesia?

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This year, Indonesia will have to face declining production numbers in its oil and gas sector. Gas output is assumed to decline by 14.77 percent compared to last year, while oil output will reach similar levels as in 2012, provided that there are no disruptions due to bad weather and leakages (a prerequisite that will be hard to meet).

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