The Indonesian government now allows private investors to develop oil refineries in Indonesia, effectively ending state-owned energy Pertamina's (virtual) monopoly. Before this new regulation, private companies had to cooperate with Pertamina to build oil refineries in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The new policy is an effort to boost domestic oil refinery capacity in Indonesia (hence limiting the need for refined fuel imports) and improve the investment climate by opening this industry to the private sector. This sector can also apply for tax incentives.

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For a company it is very difficult to start activities in Indonesia's upstream oil and gas sector. As a result, not unoften, activities related to exploration and production are delayed. This is the major reason why Indonesia's oil production has been declining for the past two decades, while Indonesia's gas production today does not differ much from production one decade ago. Why is it difficult for an oil and gas company to get started in Indonesia?

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Eight commodity prices have been rising steadily so far this year on higher global demand. This rebound is expected to continue into 2017 although it will require a long time to touch the levels that we saw in 2011. The World Bank noted in a report released on 4 October 2016 that the prices of eight commodities - coal, crude oil, crude palm oil, copper, iron ore, tin, nickel and gold - have been rebounding so far this year. Rising commodity prices will support economic growth of Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy is one of the world's largest commodity exporters.

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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) made a positive surprise move by agreeing to cut crude oil output for the first time in eight years. Reportedly, OPEC reached a preliminary agreement to limit oil production to 32.5 - 33.0 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), down from the current level of 33.5 million bpd. Although a formal agreement is yet to be reached (expected to happen in November) markets warmly welcomed the news: oil jumped 5 percent, while US energy stocks gained overnight. In Asia assets are extending the gains on Thursday (29/09).

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The goverment of Indonesia plans to revise Government Regulation No. 79/2010 scrapping several taxes that have been a burden for those companies that invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry (both the exploration and production phase). The government expects that several new fiscal and non-fiscal incentives will boost investment in this industry starting from 2017. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said it is important for the government to share in the "pain" in order to make oil and gas projects economically viable for investors.

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The government of Indonesia plans to offer the Bontang fuel refinery project to Iran. This refinery, which is targeted to have a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels of oil per day, will be located in Bontang (East Kalimantan). I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja, Director General of Oil & Gas at Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, considers it a positive step to offer the Bontang refinery project to Iran as this nation has showed an interest to develop refineries abroad in a bid to boost its crude exports after international sanctions were lifted in January 2016.

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Indonesia's crude oil production (oil lifting) in full-year 2016 is expected to reach 819,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), slightly below the target that is set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (820,000 bpd). Amien Sunaryadi, Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKKMigas), said oil production realization in Indonesia so far this year stands at 834,000 bpd. However, due to seasonal factors output is set to fall in September. Moreover, amid low oil prices Indonesia somewhat discourages oil exploration and production.

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Crude oil prices are rebounding, climbing nearly 90 percent from 13-year lows at the start of 2016. However, compared to two years ago crude prices are still down 50 percent hence corporate earnings in the oil and gas industry remain subdued, while few investors are enticed to engage in exploration. To deal with low oil prices, oil and gas companies need to become more efficient thus pushing down production costs in order to optimize earnings. Lets take a look at Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned energy company. How much does it cost for Pertamina to produce one barrel of oil?

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Indonesia's upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas said the nation's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2016 reached the average of 835,234 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the target of 830,000 bpd that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This is positive news as it is rare for Indonesia to achieve its crude oil output target. In Q1-2016 the target was met due to the combination of a realistic oil production target and long-awaited crude production growth at Exxon Mobil Corp's Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block in East Java).

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Indonesia's crude oil output was strong in the first quarter of 2016 on the back of higher-than-expected oil production of several oil companies in Indonesia. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas the nation's oil production totaled 833,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the January-March 2016 period, exceeding the oil lifting target that was set in the 2016 State Budget (830,000 bpd). It also means that the globe's low oil prices at the year-start, touching 12-year lows at around USD $27 per barrel, did not make local oil companies cut back on production rates.

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This year, Indonesia will have to face declining production numbers in its oil and gas sector. Gas output is assumed to decline by 14.77 percent compared to last year, while oil output will reach similar levels as in 2012, provided that there are no disruptions due to bad weather and leakages (a prerequisite that will be hard to meet).

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