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Latest Reports GDP
After a whopping 16 straight months of contraction (on an annual basis), the latest retail sales data (released by Bank Indonesia) showed that retail sales in Indonesia jumped 15.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2021. That is a strong rebound!
On 07 June 2021 Indonesia Investments released its new report, titled Road to Net Zero Emissions. In this report we discuss a selection of relevant topics (related to politics, the economy, and social matters) with a special emphasis on how political, ideological, and socio-economic developments in the West impact on Indonesia. One might wonder to what extent does Western imperialism in Asia continue up to the present day?
On 5 May 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), released the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the first quarter of 2021. As expected, the economic recession persisted into Q1-2021 for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
On Wednesday (5.05.2021) Indonesia Investments released the April 2021 edition of its monthly report. In the report we track important developments - from the perspective of politics, the economy and social matters - that were influential (and impacted on the Indonesian economy) last month.
It was already known that –just like in 2020– the Indonesian government would ban the traditional mudik this year (mudik, which is a distinctive feature of Indonesian culture, refers to the exodus of millions of city-dwellers toward their places of origin where they spend a few days to celebrate the end of the Ramadan month).
On Tuesday (6.04.21) Indonesia Investments released the March 2021 edition of its monthly report. In the report we track important developments - from the perspective of politics, the economy and social matters - that were influential last month.
On 5 March 2021 Indonesia Investments released its latest monthly report in which key developments are discussed that impact on the country's business and investment environments, most notably the 'positive investment list' (a derivative regulation of the Omnibus Law on Job Creation) and the establishment of Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund (which will focus on infrastructure development).
On 5 February 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia’s largest economy contracted 2.19 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was less severe compared to Indonesia Investments’ outlook of -2.50 percent (y/y).
On Friday 05 February 2021 Indonesia Investments released its January 2021 report. The report zooms in on key economic, political, and social developments in Indonesia in January 2021. Special attention is given to Indonesia's COVID-19 immunization program (do we expect to see setbacks?), household consumption amid the COVID-19 restrictions, the Sriwijaya Air crash, and Indonesian demographics.
On 4 December 2020 Indonesia Investments released its November 2020 report. This report zooms in the US presidential election, and specifically the impact it may have on Indonesia-US relations. Other important topics that are analyzed in the report include the extension of Indonesia's status as a beneficiary country in the US GSP facility, the signing of the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Indonesia's Q3-2020 economic growth.
Latest Columns GDP
Indonesia’s stock market continues to struggle in attempts to find a bottom, as recent declines have been propelled by lower-than-expected GDP figures. For the first quarter, annualized growth of rates of 5.07 percent indicated a slight miss relative to the consensus estimates for the period (5.18 percent). Primary weaknesses were seen in export markets, where slowing demand for key commodities (such as coal and palm oil) indicated contraction for the first time since 2016.
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings announced on 14 March 2019 that it has affirmed Indonesia's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'BBB' with a stable outlook (investment grade level). This decision was particularly based on Indonesia’s favorable gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook and the nation’s small government debt burden (government debt is low at an estimated 29.8 percent of GDP in 2018).
In early November 2018 the Central Statistics Bureau (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2018. Although it means a slowdown from the 5.27 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding quarter, the Q3-2018 GDP growth rate actually slightly exceeded our expectations.
In the second half of September 2018 the World Bank released its latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly (abbreviated IEQ), titled “Urbanization for All”. The IEQ, a flagship publication of the Washington-based institution which (at least in our view) is among the most interesting reports that are on a regular basis published about the Indonesian economy, has two main aims. Firstly, it informs about the key developments that occurred in Indonesia’s economy over the past three months, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, the IEQ provides an in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues and an analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges.
It was a welcome surprise when Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced in early August that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2018.
Although overshadowed by the news of the devastating earthquake in Lombok, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the official Q2-2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of Indonesia earlier today. The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2018. This growth pace exceeds our expectations although it is not enough to necessitate a revision to our full-year 2018 GDP growth forecast of 5.2 percent (y/y).
There are doubts whether Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth can reach 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018 as Indonesia is experiencing a couple of major challenges. Challenges include the global trade war, the fragile rupiah, Bank Indonesia's higher benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, and political tensions ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Currently, Indonesia Investments' forecast for Indonesia's economic growth is set at 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2018.
There are signs that household consumption in Indonesia is rebounding ahead of this year's Idul Fitri holiday. This would be a great boost for Indonesia's overall economic growth as private consumption accounts for around 57 percent of the nation's total economic growth. One of the reasons why Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been stuck around the 5 percent (y/y) mark in recent years is subdued household consumption (which has fallen slightly below the 5 percent y/y mark).
The World Bank revised down its economic growth projection for Indonesia from 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.2 percent (y/y) for full-year 2018 amid the complex external environment: tightening monetary conditions, a potential global trade war, financial volatility, and geopolitical concerns. Such external factors put pressure on Indonesia's export performance, hence on domestic economic growth.
In the April 2018 edition of its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, the World Bank is cautiously optimistic about economic growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP). After a better-than-expected global economy in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to remain stable in 2018, reflected by solid prospects in Thailand and several commodity exporters, notably Indonesia. Domestic demand is estimated to remain robust in most of the region's economies and continue to underpin growth in 2018 and beyond. However, with economies operating close to their potential, price pressures are expected to rise.
