In early September 2019 the World Bank released a report titled Global Economic Risks and Implications for Indonesia that paints a somewhat negative picture of Indonesia’s economic growth in the foreseeable future. The Washington-based institution noted that it expects Indonesia’s economic expansion to continue slowing up to (at least) 2022; from a realized growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018 to 4.6 percent (y/y) in 2022.

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For the first time in several years, Indonesia Investments decided that it had to adjust its outlook for Indonesia’s economic growth. Since 2016, Indonesia’s modestly accelerating economic growth rate had been fully in line with our estimates.

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In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.

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Danareksa, a fully state-owned financial institution in Indonesia, expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow in 2019 to the range of 5.1 - 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) from an estimated growth range of 5.2 - 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia expanded 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2018. This figure is in line with our expectations. Over the past two years it had already become clear that the acceleration of economic growth in Indonesia goes at a very slow pace, a trend that can primarily be attributed to subdued household consumption.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) stated in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report, which was released on Wednesday (11/04), that it expects the Indonesian economy to expand by 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018 and 2019 on the back of rising investment and an improvement in household consumption.

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Despite (modestly) accelerating economic growth since 2016, concerns about Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expansion persist. Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution said he expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow in the first quarter of 2018 (compared to Q1-2017) as the peak of the nation's big harvest is expected to occur in the second quarter this year (while last year it fell in the March/April period). Meanwhile, credit growth has remained bleak in Indonesia.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated on Thursday (28/12) that it expects to see Indonesia's economic growth at 5.05 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2017, up modestly from 5.02 percent (y/y) in the preceding year. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the Indonesian economy is recovering unevenly yet gradually.

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Although, overall, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2017 was slightly disappointing at a pace of 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y), investment, export and government consumption all strengthened. Hence, the main reason why Indonesia's Q3-2017 GDP growth was below expectations is sliding growth of household consumption.

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Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today (06/11) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2017. Like in the preceding two quarters, this latest figure is (slightly) below analysts' estimates. On average, analysts had expected growth in the range of 5.10 - 5.20 percent (y/y) in Q3-2017.

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According to the World Bank, a sharp dismantling of capital injections by the central banks can lead to a 80 percent reduction of capital inflows into the emerging economies, including Indonesia. This can cause serious damage or even a crisis situation in an emerging market because capital flows to these countries are more triggered by global factors than domestic ones. The winding down of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program (quantitative easing) has been gradual for now but if interest rates rise quickly it can hurt emerging economies.

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Indonesia’s external debt growth continued to slow in October 2013. Debt grew 5.8 percent (yoy) to USD $262.4 billion compared to 8.6 percent (yoy) growth in the previous month. Slowing growth in external debt occurred both in the public and private sector. Public sector external debt position at the end of October 2013 grew 0.5 percent (yoy) to USD $125.8 billion compared to 2.1 percent (yoy) in September. Meanwhile, private sector external debt grew steadily at 11.1 percent (yoy) to USD $136.6 billion as compared to the previous month.

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Indonesia will most likely not meet its original GDP growth target of 6.3 percent (stipulated in the 2013 State Budget). Yesterday (06/11), it was announced by Statistics Indonesia that Indonesia’s GDP growth figure in the third quarter of 2013 was recorded at 5.62 percent (year-on-year, yoy), the weakest quarterly growth figure since 2009 when the global financial crisis impacted on Southeast Asia’s largest economy. In 2013, Indonesia feels the global impact again, in combination with domestic factors.

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