Eight commodity prices have been rising steadily so far this year on higher global demand. This rebound is expected to continue into 2017 although it will require a long time to touch the levels that we saw in 2011. The World Bank noted in a report released on 4 October 2016 that the prices of eight commodities - coal, crude oil, crude palm oil, copper, iron ore, tin, nickel and gold - have been rebounding so far this year. Rising commodity prices will support economic growth of Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy is one of the world's largest commodity exporters.

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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) made a positive surprise move by agreeing to cut crude oil output for the first time in eight years. Reportedly, OPEC reached a preliminary agreement to limit oil production to 32.5 - 33.0 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), down from the current level of 33.5 million bpd. Although a formal agreement is yet to be reached (expected to happen in November) markets warmly welcomed the news: oil jumped 5 percent, while US energy stocks gained overnight. In Asia assets are extending the gains on Thursday (29/09).

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The goverment of Indonesia plans to revise Government Regulation No. 79/2010 scrapping several taxes that have been a burden for those companies that invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry (both the exploration and production phase). The government expects that several new fiscal and non-fiscal incentives will boost investment in this industry starting from 2017. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said it is important for the government to share in the "pain" in order to make oil and gas projects economically viable for investors.

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The government of Indonesia plans to offer the Bontang fuel refinery project to Iran. This refinery, which is targeted to have a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels of oil per day, will be located in Bontang (East Kalimantan). I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja, Director General of Oil & Gas at Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, considers it a positive step to offer the Bontang refinery project to Iran as this nation has showed an interest to develop refineries abroad in a bid to boost its crude exports after international sanctions were lifted in January 2016.

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Indonesia's crude oil production (oil lifting) in full-year 2016 is expected to reach 819,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), slightly below the target that is set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (820,000 bpd). Amien Sunaryadi, Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKKMigas), said oil production realization in Indonesia so far this year stands at 834,000 bpd. However, due to seasonal factors output is set to fall in September. Moreover, amid low oil prices Indonesia somewhat discourages oil exploration and production.

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Crude oil prices are rebounding, climbing nearly 90 percent from 13-year lows at the start of 2016. However, compared to two years ago crude prices are still down 50 percent hence corporate earnings in the oil and gas industry remain subdued, while few investors are enticed to engage in exploration. To deal with low oil prices, oil and gas companies need to become more efficient thus pushing down production costs in order to optimize earnings. Lets take a look at Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned energy company. How much does it cost for Pertamina to produce one barrel of oil?

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Indonesia's upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas said the nation's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2016 reached the average of 835,234 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the target of 830,000 bpd that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This is positive news as it is rare for Indonesia to achieve its crude oil output target. In Q1-2016 the target was met due to the combination of a realistic oil production target and long-awaited crude production growth at Exxon Mobil Corp's Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block in East Java).

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Indonesia's crude oil output was strong in the first quarter of 2016 on the back of higher-than-expected oil production of several oil companies in Indonesia. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas the nation's oil production totaled 833,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the January-March 2016 period, exceeding the oil lifting target that was set in the 2016 State Budget (830,000 bpd). It also means that the globe's low oil prices at the year-start, touching 12-year lows at around USD $27 per barrel, did not make local oil companies cut back on production rates.

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Oil production at the Banyu Urip field, part of the Cepu Block in East Java, has finally reached the level of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 after a long delay. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas, production at the field stood at an average of 130,000 bpd in the first month of 2016. The Banyu Urip field, operated by ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd, is expected to reach its top production rate - around 165,000 bpd - in March or April. This would mean that the Banyu Urip field accounts for nearly 20 percent of Indonesia's total oil production.

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The government of Indonesia wants to construct the Bontang oil refinery in East Kalimantan through a private-public partnership (PPP). Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said construction of the Bontang oil refinery is scheduled to commence in 2017. State-owned energy company Pertamina will be in charge of the project and is now searching for investors to participate in the project which is estimated to require a total of USD $14.5 billion in investment.

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While Indonesia was enjoying the Idul Fitri celebrations (marking the end of the holy fasting month), global financial markets experienced a massive shock. The panic was fueled by concern over a severe escalation of the Iran War after US President Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline that would expire on 23 March 2026.

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The key story in March 2026 is obviously the Iran War that broke out after a United States (US)-Israeli coalition attacked various strategic assets in Iran starting on 28 February 2026, thus causing another (possibly long-term) geopolitical conflict after the Russo-Ukrainian War (2022-present) and Israel-Hamas War (2023-present).

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Few should be unaware that the world (particularly Western powers) are pushing for renewable energy to replace fossil fuels. It is difficult to find a newspaper or TV station that does not report on this issue on a daily basis.

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Just like essentially all other currencies around the globe, the Indonesian rupiah has been under pressure from tightening monetary policy in the United States (US). This has serious consequences for the energy market since Indonesia is a net oil importer.

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Besides the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, another big news story in March 2020 was the massive decline of global crude oil prices. Not only is the price of oil under pressure because of the enormous slowdown in economic activity as various governments have imposed restrictions (such as travel bans) in an attempt to curb the further spread of the coronavirus, but there also emerged big tensions between some of the world’s biggest oil producers that led to tumbling oil prices.

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Foreign exchange earnings are important assets for a national economy. Therefore, many nations have recently been taking a much more protectionist approach vis-à-vis trade in an effort to strengthen their trade positions, generate trade surpluses, hence see the inflow of more foreign exchange earnings. Foreign exchange assets support a stable local currency as well as economy.

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Again, oil and gas contractors in Indonesia urge the government to clean up bureaucracy (red tape) in this sector in order to make the investment climate more attractive, and hence trigger more (much-needed) investment in Indonesia's oil and gas industry.

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Crude oil production at the Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block) in East Java has reached 201,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd). This peak is reached about three years after operations started at the Banyu Urip field. Considering Indonesia set a 825,000 (bpd) oil production target in the state budget, it implies the Banyu Urip field now accounts for almost a quarter of total (targeted) crude oil production across Indonesia.

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An interesting interview with Lana Soelistianingsih was published in Indonesian tabloid Kontan, a magazine that focuses on the economy and financial markets of Indonesia. Soelistianingsih is Head of Economy at Samuel Aset Manajemen as well as a teacher at the Economics Department of the University of Indonesia. The topic of the interview is crude oil.

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Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.

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