Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Latest Reports Household Consumption
A survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) shows that retail sales have grown strongly in December 2018. The growth pace was recorded at 7.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the last month of 2018, strengthening from an annual growth rate of 3.4 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
Every quarter we are very eager to learn the latest update of the Kontan CEO Confidence Index (KCCI). The KCCI is an index compiled by Kontan, an Indonesian newspaper and magazine that focuses on business and investment (and is part of the Kompas Gramedia Group). Each quarter, 30 chief executive officers (CEOs) of big Indonesian companies – covering a range of sectors - are surveyed. Their feedback is important because these CEOs are decision-makers in influential companies.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia expanded 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2018. This figure is in line with our expectations. Over the past two years it had already become clear that the acceleration of economic growth in Indonesia goes at a very slow pace, a trend that can primarily be attributed to subdued household consumption.
One of Indonesia's biggest companies in terms of market capitalization on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Unilever Indonesia, reported a decline in net profit and sales in the first quarter of 2018. The company's latest corporate earnings report gives rise to concerns that household consumption is yet to show a rebound in Indonesia.
Stakeholders in Indonesia's food and beverage industry expect to see a 15 percent increase in sales during the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri celebrations (compared to normal conditions). Although the Ramadan is Muslims' fasting month, it is also a period when household consumption tends to rise sharply in Indonesia, specifically spending on food and drinks as well as clothes, bags and shoes grows significantly.
Unilever Indonesia, one of Indonesia's biggest consumer goods companies, recorded IDR 7 trillion (approx. USD $515 million) in net profit over full-year 2017, up 9.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) from net profit in the preceding year. These figures are unaudited. The audited FY-2017 corporate earnings are expected to be released toward the end of February 2018.
The emergence of a money flow in the context of the government's Family Hope Program (in Indonesian: Program Keluarga Harapan, or PKH), a cash transfer program for the nation's poorest households, is hoped to boost household consumption in Indonesia in 2018. In February 2018 the first phase of this year's PKH program will be conducted.
Bambang Brodjonegoro, Indonesia's Minister of National Development Planning, said there occurred a 20 percent increase in non-government consumption ahead of Indonesia's presidential election in 2014. Considering 2018 and 2019 are political years (with regional elections in 2018 and legislative and presidential elections in 2019), we can expect to see a new boost for consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Approaching the end of the year, retail companies in Indonesia are now starting to prepare for the upcoming Christmas and New Year celebrations in late-December. Indonesia has two traditional peaks of rising consumer demand (hence rising inflationary pressures): (1) Ramadan/Idul Fitri festivities and (2) Christmas/New Year celebrations.
In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati informed that it will be tough to achieve the 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) economic growth target as set in the government's Revised 2017 State Budget. In the first two quarters of the year Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) only expanded 5.01 percent (y/y) in each quarter.
Latest Columns Household Consumption
In line with expectations, the economic growth rate of Indonesia was recorded at the level of 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2025. This is a good result as it slightly exceeded analyst expectations (in our case, we had projected a 5 percent y/y growth rate), and was also a faster growth pace than the one recorded by Indonesia in the same quarter one year earlier (4.95 percent y/y).
The economic growth rate of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1-2025) came in slightly below our projection of 4.9 – 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y). But, indeed, we had already detected a (general) weakening in internal and external conditions, which was reflected in the macroeconomic data of Indonesia that we discussed in our April 2025 report. And so, it was certainly not a shock.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was slightly better than we had anticipated. Just prior to the release of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data on 5 February 2025 (by Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), we revised our outlook for Indonesia’s Q4-2024 economic growth from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to the range of 4.9–5.0 percent (y/y) due to a number of weaker-than-estimated macroeconomic data.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 (Q2-2024) was good, although slightly below our projection of 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y). According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data, which were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) on 5 August 2024, the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.05 percent (y/y) in Q2-2024.
Before we take a look at the latest macroeconomic data from Indonesia, first there is some good news to share as both the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) decided to revise up their projections for the Indonesian economy in 2023.
As usual, we take a look at a number of macroeconomic indicators to assess the state of the Indonesian economy ahead of the release of Q2-2023 gross domestic product (GDP) data (we expect Indonesia’s Statistical Agency, or BPS, to release the data in the second week of August 2023).
On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
On 06 February 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released the latest official gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia. The data were in line with expectations.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said she expects to see a sharper economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2023 (Q1-2023) than the 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth that was recorded in the same quarter one year earlier.
Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.
