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Today's Headlines Car Sales
The risky decision of Indonesia’s central government and regional governments to (gradually) ease the various self-imposed social and business restrictions (that had been imposed in April 2020) has caused changes in economic activity in Indonesia, particularly in consumer behavior, starting from June 2020.
Also in 2017 Indonesia remained the biggest car sales market as well as the second-biggest car producer in the ASEAN region. Total car sales in ASEAN grew 5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 3.3 million in 2017. Indonesia contributed almost one-third to the total. However, Thailand remains the dominant car manufacturer in the region, producing nearly 2 million vehicles in 2017.
Although it proves difficult for Indonesian car manufacturers to export their output to overseas markets, reflected by the declining number of local car exporters (declining from eight in 2013 to five at the start of 2018), Indonesia's car shipments have been rising steadily over the past five years. However, in absolute terms the figure remains modest with 231,169 exported car units from Indonesia in full-year 2017.
Indonesia's car sales rose 11.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 95,892 vehicles (wholesale) in January 2018 according to the latest data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo). This is a very promising start of the year as the January 2018 car sales figure is the highest January figure since 2014.
Research institute Frost & Sullivan expects car sales in Indonesia to rise 4.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018 supported by growing domestic demand for commercial vehicles, stable demand for low-cost green cars (LCGCs), the availability of affordable car prices, and the launch of new car models.
The Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) lowered its forecast for car sales in Indonesia in full-year 2017. Initially Gaikindo expected to see 1.1 million car sales in Indonesia this year. However, the target has now been revised to 1.06 million units. The revision was particularly attributed to weak sales within the (lower) middle class segment.
Based on the latest data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), automotive sales in Indonesia rose 2.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 94,461 vehicles in October 2017 on the back of rising demand for commercial vehicles. Growing demand is boosted by recovering coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
BMW, the Germany-based automobile manufacturer, said it will continue to focus on supplying cars for Indonesia's elite. The company specifically aims for the top officials working at embassies and international organizations in Indonesia. Currently, BMW already supplies its vehicles to 36 embassies in Indonesia as well as five representative offices of international organizations.
Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates, sold 398,995 cars in the first eight months of the year, up 9 percent year-on-year (y/y) from the company's car sales in the January-August 2016 period. The Astra Group, the biggest force in Indonesia's automotive sector, now controls 56 percent of the nation's car sales market.
The latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) show Indonesia's wholesale car sales rose 37.54 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 85,131 vehicles in July 2017. However, these data are distorted because the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations fell in June this year, while they fell in July last year (implying there were much less workdays in July 2016). What were the 10 most sold cars in Indonesia in July 2017?
Latest Columns Car Sales
Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) Indonesian car sales (delivery to dealers) fell around 10 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 84,885 vehicles in the first month of the year from 94,194 units in January 2015. Retail sales, on the other hand, showed a 1 percentage point growth to 82,423 vehicles over the same period.
Whereas the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), expects Indonesia's car sales to rise five percent (y/y) in 2016 on the back of improving economic conditions, US-based consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects to see a 4.3 percent decline in the country's car sales this year as continued rupiah depreciation and persistently low commodity prices undermine Indonesians' purchasing power.
Both car sales and motorcycle sales declined in 2015 in Indonesia. Primary reason for this decline was people's weaker purchasing power amid the slowing economy and persistently low commodity prices. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have fallen to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009. Meanwhile, amid the sluggish global economy (especially China's slowdown) and falling oil prices, Indonesia gains relatively little from its commodity exports.
The performance of Astra International, one of Indonesia's leading diversified conglomerates (but particularly known for being the dominant force in the country's automotive industry), is expected to improve next year on the arrival of new car models, estimated accelerated economic growth and its rivals' stagnating production capacity expansion. As such, Astra International should be able to increase its market share and feel less need to offer its cars to customers at discounted rates.
Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.
The structure of Indonesia's automotive industry remains weak as it is too dependent on imports of raw materials, making sales prices of cars highly vulnerable to the volatile Indonesian rupiah. The automotive industry has been one of the many local industries that has been plagued by Indonesia's economic slowdown and fragile rupiah (amid looming tighter monetary policy in the USA) as people's purchasing power has weakened. In the first ten months of 2015, Indonesian car sales stood at a total of 853,008 units, down 18 percent from car sales in the same period last year.
In a bid to boost economic activity in Indonesia, the central bank (Bank Indonesia) revised several regulations involving down payments for the purchase of cars and motorcycles as well as the maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for first or more home purchases by Indonesian citizens. Yati Kurniati, Director of Bank Indonesia’s Macroprudential Department, said that the central bank implemented the looser monetary policy in the property and automotive sectors in an effort to boost credit growth, hence boosting the whole economy.
Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.
Global consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects Indonesian car sales to grow five percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.28 million vehicles in 2015, particularly on the rising popularity of the low cost green car (LCGC) and the USA-based company’s assumption that the economy of Indonesia will expand by 5.5 percent (y/y) this year. The LCGC was introduced on the Indonesian market in late 2013 after the government had offered tax incentives to car manufacturers that met requirements of fuel efficiency targets.
Amid Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as well as looming higher prices of subsidized fuels (which will cause accelerated inflation and declining purchasing power), domestic car sales in Indonesia have fallen 6.3 percent to 104,916 units in October 2014 from the same month last year according to preliminary data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). Cumulatively, car sales reached 1.04 million units in the first ten months of 2014, a slight 1.6 percentage point increase from the same period last year.
Associated businesses Car Sales
