Indonesia Investments Report - March 2021 Edition: Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 1,542,516 confirmed infections, 41,977 deaths (6 April 2021)
14 April 2021 (closed)
USD/IDR (14,146) -6.00 -0.04%
EUR/IDR (17,335) +57.05 +0.33%
Jakarta Composite Index (6,050.28) +122.84 +2.07%
Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Today's Headlines Inflation
Weak demand across Indonesia, a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, persisted into the second month of 2021 with Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) showing a modest inflation rate of 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in February 2021.
Indonesia’s December 2020 headline inflation accelerated slightly more than we had expected. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) this is particularly caused by rising food prices in the context of Christmas and New Year celebrations.
In line with expectations, October 2020 brought mild inflation to Indonesia, thereby allowing the country’s consumer price index (CPI) to rebound after experiencing an unprecedented three consecutive months of deflation (July-September 2020).
For the third straight month Indonesia experienced mild deflation. According to the latest data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) showed deflation of 0.05 percent month-on-month (m/m) in September 2020.
As we predicted last month, August 2020 brought mild deflation to Indonesia. Based on the latest data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), the consumer price index posted deflation of 0.05 percent month-on-month (m/m).
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic brings unusual times for any country, especially in terms of the economic and social environments. In the case of Indonesia it has triggered historically low headline inflation, namely 1.54 percent year-on-year (y/y) after July 2020 brought deflation of -0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m).
On Wednesday (05/08/2020) Indonesia Investments released the July 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'A Modest Rebound', we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Indonesian economy, Indonesia's automotive industry, and a range of other topics.
In June 2020 the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continued to undermine business activity and consumer demand across Indonesia, hence triggering very low inflation, namely 0.18 percent month-on-month (m/m).
Indonesia’s inflation rate was unusually mild in May 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.07 percent month-on-month (m/m) only.
As expected, Indonesia’s inflation rate was quite low in April 2020. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the consumer price index (CPI) stood at 0.08 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April.
Latest Columns Inflation
Today (20/10), Central Jakarta seems to have changed into one big party as Joko Widodo was inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh president earlier this morning. For the remainder of the day celebrations will be held at Monas (National Monument) and surrounding areas. However, it is of vital importance that Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) will start to focus on this presidential duties tomorrow as the country is facing a number of economic challenges. What are these challenges?
Bank Indonesia decided to hold the key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in October, with the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility rates kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. This level is expected to help control inflation at 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Despite stable domestic conditions, Bank Indonesia sees risks: contagion risk stemming from US monetary tightening and possible higher subsidized fuel prices.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) released a press statement on Wednesday evening (01/10) in which it set out its view on the country’s trade balance and inflation after the latest economic data had been released by Statistics Indonesia (abbreviated BPS) earlier on the day. Based on information of BPS, Indonesia’s September inflation was relatively low at 0.27 percent month-to-month (m/m), while the August trade balance swung back into a deficit at USD $318.1 million.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will not lower its key interest rate (BI rate) until accelerated inflation (brought on by the looming subsidized fuel price hike at the end of the year) has eased and US interest rates are stable (the US Federal Reserve may raise its key interest rate in the second or third quarter of 2015). This implies that the relatively high interest rate environment in Indonesia (the key BI rate has been at 7.50 percent for almost a year) will continue (to safeguard financial stability) at the expense of higher economic growth.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for the tenth consecutive month as inflation is under control and well within the year-end target of the central bank (3.5-5.5 percent). The lending facility and deposit facility were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively, at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s Meeting (11/09). The central bank also expects that the current interest rate environment is capable of curbing the country’s wide current account deficit.
The government of Indonesia agreed with the House Budget Committee to adjust the economic growth target of Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2015 to 5.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point up from the initial growth target proposed by the government in the Financial Memorandum as well as the 2015 State Budget Draft (APBN). Still, the 5.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target constitutes the lowest growth target set in Indonesia’s state budget (excluding revised state budgets) since the year 2010.
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) ended at a record high on Wednesday (03/09) as market sentiments were positive after the Indonesian government raised USD $1.5 billion from 10-year dollar-denominated Islamic bonds (known as sukuk) on Tuesday (02/09). Foreign investors submitted USD $10 billion worth of bids, six times the amount offered, showing that they are confident about the country’s current and future economic prospects.
Speculation has emerged that Indonesian President-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi) plans to raise prices of subsidized fuels immediately after taking office in late October 2014. On Tuesday (02 /09), Jokowi said that he sees no other option than to raise these prices in an effort to relieve the budget deficit, curb the wide current account deficit and make more funds available for long-term productive public investments (such as on infrastructure, healthcare and education). The government has set aside IDR 291.1 trillion (USD $25 billion) for fuel subsidies in 2015.
Contrary to the positive performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia on Monday’s trading day (01/09) and despite positive domestic economic data released by Statistics Indonesia, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 11,716 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (01/09). The main reason for the currency’s depreciation is the strengthening US dollar as US economic data are improving and inflation is slowing in the Eurozone.
In the past days, Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy has been in the spotlight of Indonesian media continuously. When it was reported that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and newly elected president Joko Widodo would meet on the island of Bali this week to discuss various transitional matters, speculation emerged that the country’s generous fuel subsidies, which seriously burden the government’s budget as well as current account, might be wound down before the new government is inaugurated in October 2014.
