Indonesia's manufacturing sector continued to contract in November 2016 (the second straight month of contraction), albeit at a slower pace. Indonesia's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to a reading of 49.7 points last month from 48.7 points in October 2016 (a reading above 50.0 signals expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). Contraction in November was largely blamed on subdued demand and floods in parts of Indonesia.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are under pressure on Thursday (24/11). Amid rising expectation of a Fed Funds Rate hike before the year-end, the US dollar rose to a 13 year-high implying all emerging market currencies are sliding. The Indonesian rupiah, one of the more vulnerable emerging market currencies, had depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,542 per US dollar by 10:20 am local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 0.85 percent to 5,167.87 points by the same time.

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There is plenty of news that is impacting on Asia's financial markets this morning: a big earthquake (as well as tsunami alert) occurred in Japan's Fukushima, the crude oil price surged to a three-week high, US stocks touched record high levels overnight, while Indonesian authorities officially banned another "anti-Ahok protest" rally. Most Asian stocks are rising on Tuesday morning (22/11) although Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index started in the red. However, the index quickly entered green territory some time later. Meanwhile, the rupiah remains under pressure. Lets take a closer look.

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Indonesian stocks continued to decline on Tuesday (15/11), for the third consecutive day. After a promising start - Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rose about 1 percent in today's first trading session - the index finished the day down 0.73 percent to 5,078.50 points. Key matters that cause this selloff are the US dollar approaching a 14-year high as well as expectation of rising inflation in the USA now Donald Trump has been elected next US president. This cocktail gives rise to capital outflows from emerging markets to the USA.

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Donald Trump becoming US president causes investors to re-evaluate emerging market assets, and Indonesia is among the biggest victims. Trump is eager to make the USA "great again", partly by using the protectionist approach. Considering Trump may be supported by the Republican-controlled US Congress, investors see a real chance for realization of Trump's plans (which include infrastructure development, tax cuts, as well as the exiting of free trade and environment deals). This has a big impact on emerging markets.

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Emerging markets in Asia, including Indonesia, are plagued by sharply depreciating currencies on Friday morning (11/11). Demand for the US dollar is high on the "Trump effect". With a Republican-controlled US Congress and pragmatic businessman Donald Trump in the White House, markets have become positive about US economic growth in the years ahead. Meanwhile, it feeds the likelihood of faster and more frequent Fed Funds rate hikes during Trump's administration. The Indonesian rupiah was down 5.53 percent to IDR 13,865 per US dollar by 09:18 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Not only were we surprised by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, but also by markets' positive reaction to Trump's win on Tuesday. It shows that most analysts' opinions and opinion polls fail to reflect reality accurately (similar to the Brexit case earlier this year). Today (10/11) the turnaround continued in Asia, extending the performance of European and US stocks overnight. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index opened 0.79 percent higher on Thursday morning (10/11), while the rupiah has not really moved yet.

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Donald Trump will soon become the 45th president of the United States, the world's largest economy. In the election on Tuesday (08/11) he defeated market favorite Hillary Clinton, being the first to obtain more than 270 (state-by-state) electoral votes. The world was stunned and therefore heavy movements occurred in global financial markets (that previously had priced in a Clinton win). Reportedly, Clinton has already conceded to Trump through a telephone call.

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Today - Tuesday 8 November 2016 - is an important day for the United States, and perhaps even more important for the rest of the world. Around 140 million American voters are expected to show up to vote for the 45th president in today's US presidential election. The US presidential race, a tough battle between Hillary Clinton (Democrats) and Donald Trump (Republicans), has a major impact on financial markets across the globe. In this column we discuss and follow the latest developments regarding the US presidential election on Indonesian stocks and rupiah.

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Most Asian stocks gained after FBI Director James Comey stated that there is no new evidence to warrant charges against US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the investigation involving her (private) email activities while in government. Apart from, generally, rising shares in Asia (on the back of risk-on sentiment) this news also caused a sharply strengthening US dollar. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is the exception, however, having slid 0.29 percent to 5,347.16 points by 09:45 am local Jakarta time.

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In line with other Asian indices, Indonesian stocks rose on Tuesday (26/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.62 percent to 5,320.90 points. Positive sentiments did not originate from the USA as US stock markets were closed for a holiday yesterday but primarily stemmed from China where the economic planning agency announced to implement several new policies in a bid to boost the sluggish economy. The rupiah, however, depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 13,220 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Although most emerging market stocks fell, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah showed a solid performance on Thursday (21/05). The rupiah appreciated 0.40 percent to IDR 13,122 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.39 percent to 5,313.21 points. Most emerging stocks fell due to weak data from China (despite a series of stimulus). However, Indonesian stocks were supported by news about its credit rating and dividend announcements.

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Investors are clearly waiting for results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governor’s Meeting, conducted today (19/05). In this monthly policy meeting, Indonesia’s central bank will decide on its monetary approach. For most market participants it is of crucial importance to learn whether Bank Indonesia will adjust its interest rate policy in order to support the country’s economic growth (which slowed to a five-year low in the first quarter of 2015). Ahead of results, scheduled to be released this afternoon, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weaken.

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Over the last year, the Indonesian rupiah has been rising when compared to a wide variety of world currencies. Some of the more pronounced strength has been seen against the US dollar, which has been travelling in the opposite direction for most of the same period. To many investors that are focused on the currency markets, it might appear as though these two currencies are largely unrelated. But when we look at the trends that have been developing over the last year, it quickly becomes clear that this is just not the case.

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Ahead of the release of Indonesia’s official first quarter GDP growth figure (scheduled to be released in the first week of May), Indonesian stocks fell and the rupiah depreciated (slightly) against the US dollar on the back of weak market sentiments that have plagued Indonesian markets over the past week. Most importantly, weaker-than-expected Q1-2015 corporate earnings reports of listed Indonesian blue chips have made market participants concerned that Indonesia’s economic slowdown has continued into the first quarter of 2015.

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After Indonesia’s political year of 2014 ended, financial institutions expect to experience better times in 2015. Last year, economic growth of Indonesia slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) due to weak exports, the high domestic interest rate environment, and political uncertainties caused by Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections. This year, however, economic growth is expected to accelerate - albeit slightly - implying stronger purchasing power. One of the businesses that will profit is mutual fund management.

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On March 31, 2015, Bank Indonesia issued regulation number 17/3/PBI/2015 concerning Mandatory Use of Rupiah in the Territory of Indonesia (BI Regulation). In the much discussed Law number 7 of 2011 concerning Currency the mandatory use of rupiah in Indonesia was already regulated, however could be exempted in case the contract parties had agreed in writing to the terms of payment in a currency other than rupiah. Under the new BI regulation the terms on the use of foreign currencies are further restricted. In this column we discuss the most important changes based on the BI Regulation.

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Over the past week, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,850 per US dollar on Friday (17/04). Only a month ago, investors and policymakers were alarmed when the rupiah touched IDR 13,245 per US dollar, a 17-year low. This column discusses the factors that caused the strengthening of the rupiah in recent weeks. However, amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA, this development should be short-term only.

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When we look at market activity in the Indonesian rupiah, some very clear trends have started to emerge. When viewed against the US dollar the rupiah has seen pronounced weakness over this time frame. Many investors have started to view this activity as overdone and we have started to see analyst forecasts calling for more strength in the rupiah over the next few months. But there are also arguments that can be made against this outlook and it will be important for those investing in Indonesian assets to understand some of these factors, so that proper positioning can be undertaken.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that, besides global volatility caused by uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, the rupiah has been - and remains - under pressure due to Indonesia’s increasing private sector debt and the wide current account deficit. Moreover, as subsidiaries of multinational companies in Indonesia tend to send back dividends to the foreign parent companies in the second quarter (implying rising US dollar demand), the rupiah is plagued by additional pressures up to June.

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