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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index touched a new all-time record high on Wednesday (25/10). More importantly, the benchmark index passed beyond the psychological boundary of 6,000 points and closed 1.23 percent higher at 6,025.43 points. This great performance was driven by Indonesia's energy and financial stocks.
Bank Indonesia held its key rate at 4.25 percent at the October 2017 policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations. In fact, previously, Bank Indonesia officials had already indicated that they would pause their eagerness to ease monetary policy. Since January 2016, the central bank of Indonesia had already cut the benchmark interest rate eight times from 7.25 percent to 4.25 percent in an effort to boost economic growth.
The Indonesian rupiah appreciated slightly - by 0.09 percent - to IDR 13,464 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) on Thursday (05/10), bucking the trend in Asia where most emerging market currencies weakened amid US dollar strength as US economic data showed that the US service sector grew at its fastest pace in 12 years in September 2017.
The Indonesian rupiah is continuing to depreciate on Monday (02/10). By 15:00 pm local Jakarta time the currency had weakened 0.71 percent to IDR 13,568 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Not only the rupiah, but all (emerging market) currencies are sliding in Asia on renewed US dollar strength.
Indonesian shares and the rupiah strengthened considerably on the last trading day of the week. On Friday (29/09) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged 1.02 percent to 5,900.85 points, outperforming all other national benchmark indices in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.32 percent to IDR 13,472 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
The US dollar is advancing on Thursday (28/09) amid strong US dollar demand on the back of US President Donald Trump's tax reform program announcement and looming further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve before the year-end. Rising US treasury yields naturally cause US dollar strength, hence leading to weakening emerging market currencies, with especially the Indonesian rupiah being affected significantly today.
Investors are again in search of safe haven assets on Wednesday (27/09), hence most emerging market currencies, including Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate, are weakening against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 13,412 per US dollar by 14:45 am local Jakarta time. Yesterday, the rupiah had already weakened 0.37 percent against the greenback.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) said the nation's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD $128.8 billion at the end of August 2017, higher than the USD $127.8 billion one month earlier. This growth was primarily attributed to foreign exchange receipts from tax revenues and government oil & gas export proceeds, as well as auctions of Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange bills.
Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.65 percent to IDR 13,221 per US dollar by 10:30 am local Jakarta time on Friday morning (08/09), extending Thursday's gains when the rupiah strengthened 0.20 percent against the greenback. What explains this strong rupiah performance?
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is convinced that geopolitical troubles on the Korean peninsula will not impact negatively on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo said he sees little impact (yet) but emphasized that the lender of last resort will continue to carefully monitor persistent tensions that have heightened after North Korea's latest nuclear test - its biggest-ever - on Sunday (03/09).
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On Monday (14/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.23 percent to IDR 11,440 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This performance was in line with most other emerging Asian currencies, which weakened against the US dollar due to broad strength in the greenback as well as risk aversion. The rupiah - still the best performing emerging Asian currency so far this year - depreciated on dollar demand from local importers (while state-run banks were reported to engage in rupiah buying).
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the March 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate extends its depreciation on Friday (11/04) after market participants showed their concern about Indonesia's legislative election result on Wednesday (09/04). As the election did not result in a clear victory for the PDI-P (the main opposition party which intends to nominate popular Jakarta Governor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo as presidential candidate), the fragmented outcome is expected to lead to continued political uncertainty ahead of Indonesia's presidential election on 9 July 2014.
Most emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, appreciated against the US dollar on Tuesday (08/04) due to carry trade (meaning the selling of low-yield currencies for higher-yielding assets) and expected stimulus from China's government to boost its economy (Chinese shares in fact gained 2.2 percent on this stimulus speculation). The rupiah appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 11,289 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, partly due to variety of domestic factors.
Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.
The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).
At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).
On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, said that its latest annual survey on economic prospects and the business climate in Indonesia indicates an optimistic view. Respondents in the survey, mostly CEOs and Division Heads at financial institutions, companies, government and media, were asked 11 questions about the Indonesian economy, reformation and prospects for the next five years. Andrew Steel, Managing Director Head of Asia Pacific Corporate Ratings Group, presented results of the survey.
