The International Monetary Fund (IMF) detects a slowdown in GDP growth in major emerging market economies and decline in commodity prices, and more recently, a reversal in push factors tied to a prospective exit from extraordinarily easy global monetary conditions, has put pressure on Indonesia’s balance of payments and heightened its vulnerability to shocks. Domestic policy accommodation and rising energy subsidies have also given rise to increased external and fiscal imbalances.

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On Sunday (15/12), Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. Our weekly newsletter contains the most important news stories on the subject of Indonesia's economy, politics and social issues that were reported in the last seven days. This week's edition includes analyses of Indonesia's benchmark interest rate, current account deficit and geothermal energy development. Visit our Join Us section if you want to sign up for our free newsletter. Our latest newsletter can be viewed here.

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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank Indonesia (BI) signed the third Bilateral Swap Arrangement (BSA) on 12 December 2013. The arrangement is an expansion of the current BSA which almost doubles the size of the facility from USD $12 billion to $22.76 billion. This arrangement also introduces a new feature in the form of a crisis prevention scheme to support potential and/or actual liquidity needs. Both institutions also agreed to establish a cross-border liquidity arrangement to enhance the stability of financial markets.

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In Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors' meeting - held on Thursday (12/12) - it was decided to keep the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Communication Department Difi A. Johansyah said that the current rate of 7.50 percent is in line with the institution's inflation target of 4.5 percent (plus or minus one percent). The lending facility and deposite facility (Fasbi) rates are also maintained at 7.5 percent and 5.75 percent respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that Indonesia’s official reserve assets totaled USD $97.0 billion at the end of November 2013 thus unchanged from the end of the previous month. Bank Indonesia stated that this amount is equivalent to 5.5 months of import or 5.3 months of import and servicing of government external debt. After having grown sharply in recent years, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have fallen from USD $112.8 billion at end-2012 as Bank Indonesia tried to support the depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Household consumption in Indonesia has improved in November 2013 according to Bank Indonesia's Consumer Survey. The central bank's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose 4.8 points to 114.3 points. This improvement is attributable to increased available job opportunities and increased purchases of durable goods ahead of Christmas 2013 and New Year. Lastly, Indonesian consumers are more positive about Indonesia's economic condition in the coming six months.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its depreciation on Wednesday (04/12). The central bank's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate fell 1.09 percent to IDR 11,960 per US dollar after absorbing the impact of the currency's weak performance on yesterday's spot market. On Tuesday (03/12), local Indonesian companies were buying US dollars at a more attractive exchange rate after the currency had appreciated previously, thus placing serious downward pressure on the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Inflation in November 2013 continued to show a decelerating trend at 0.12 percent (month-to-month) or 8.37 percent (year-on-year). Although higher compared to October 2013 inflation (0.09 percent), November inflation was lower than its historical pattern in the last five years. The low inflation rate was influenced by deflation in the volatile food group with deflation of 0.57 percent (mtm), a result of the correction in chilli prices, especially in Java and eastern region of Indonesia as well as the decline in the chicken meat price in almost all areas of Indonesia.

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Bank Indonesia (Indonesia's central bank) has expressed that it will support slowing credit growth in the country's banking sector next year in order to foster a more stable financial environment amid a complex external and internal context. In recent years, credit growth in Indonesia has grown over 20 percent annually, while in 2013 it is expected to slow to between 18 and 20 percent amid a tighter policy regime. In 2014, Bank Indonesia targets credit growth between 15 to 17 percent. As a result banks will be more cautious in their lending approach.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects Indonesia's November inflation rate to be modest at 0.05 to 0.1 percent (month-to-month). If Martowardojo's expection will be met then it means that inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy is under control as November would be the third consecutive month of low inflation (or deflation). Inflation had accelerated significantly since June 2013 after the government raised prices of subsidized fuels and might reach 9 percent (yoy) by the end of 2013.

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The rebound that happened in the first session of Friday's trading day (23/08) gave hope that Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) would end the disastrous week on a positive note. However, in the second session of the day market participants began selling Indonesian assets causing the index to fall again, although the fall was limited. In line with the Asian region, the index lost 0.04 percent to end at 4,169.83 points. Even the highly anticipated 'rescue package' of the Indonesian government was not able to support the index.

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Concerns about Indonesia's weakening rupiah intensified on Wednesday (21/08) as the currency is now balancing on the psychological boundary of IDR 11,000 per US dollar. The rupiah continued its downward spiral today although its decline was limited due to the intervention of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) that started selling US dollars again in an effort to support the rupiah. According to data compiled by Reuters, the rupiah has now fallen 10.7 percent this year.

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On Tuesday (20/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) continued its decline with its fourth consecutive day of losses. Amid major concerns about Indonesia's economic growth, high inflation, tighter monetary policy and current account deficit, the IHSG fell 3.21 percent to 4,174.98 points. It means that the index now stands about 21 percent lower than its record peak in May 2013. Foreign investors have been pulling money out of the Indonesian market. According to Bloomberg, about USD $255 million has been retracted in the last two days.

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After two days of growth, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) became victim of profit taking on Thursday (15/08). Particularly domestic investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets. Falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (14/08) in combination with global uncertainty about the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program made a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. Indonesia's central bank's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% was well-received by most investors.

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

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After Wall Street turned back into the green zone on Tuesday (13/08) and was accompanied by continued rising stock indices in Europe, it provided good support for Asian stock indices on Wednesday (14/08), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Indonesian mining commodities and plantation stocks fell but these losses were offset by rising big cap stocks (particularly finance stocks) and speculation that Indonesia's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 6.50 percent.

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Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.

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Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

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Indonesia’s inflation rate in July 2013 was significantly higher than analysts had previously estimated. The country’s July inflation figure accelerated to 3.29 percent. On year-on-year basis, it now stands at 8.61 percent, the highest inflation rate since many years. Particularly food commodity and transportation prices rose steeply. The main reason for Indonesia's high inflation is the reduction in fuel subsidies. In late June, the government increased the prices of subsidized fuels in order to relieve the ballooning budget deficit.

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Last week (22-26 July 2013), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) ended 1.39 percent down at 4,658.87. The daily value of transactions on the regular market narrowed to an average of IDR 3 trillion (USD $300 million) from IDR 3.84 trillion in the previous week. Foreigners still recorded net sales amounting to IDR 92.9 billion (USD $9.3 million). Lack of positive sentiments, financial results of companies that were below expectation and the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar resulted in the decline of the index.

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