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Today's Headlines Palm Oil Price
The crude palm oil (CPO) price weakened 3.85 percent to 2,425 Malaysian ringgit per metric ton in the first quarter of 2018. Key reason behind this decline is increased CPO output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's two top palm oil producers that - together - account for around 85 percent of total global CPO production.
The crude palm oil (CPO) price continues to decline, falling more than 1 percent on Monday morning (24/07). The CPO futures contract (October 2017 delivery), the most active contract on the Bursa Malaysia, had shed 1.05 percent or 27 points to 2,546 ringgit per ton by 11:20 am local Jakarta time.
The strengthening of the crude palm oil (CPO) price continued for the third consecutive trading day on Friday morning (21/07), supported by strong exports and bad weather. CPO futures (October 2017 contract), the most-active contract at Bursa Malaysia, had risen 0.16 percent to 2,580 ringgit per ton by 10:17 am local Jakarta time zone. Earlier in the morning the CPO price opened with a gain after rising 2.02 percent to 2,576 ringgit per ton on Thursday (19/07).
The crude palm oil (CPO) price touched its lowest level since 4 May 2017 due to expectations of rising CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm oil producer. At the end of trading on Tuesday (06/06) the palm oil price had fallen 0.08 percent to 2,497 ringgit (approx. USD $585.07) per ton on the Malaysian bourse (August 2017 contracts).
Despite expectations of rising demand ahead of - and amid - the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations, the price of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to decline up to the end of June 2017. At the end of the trading day on Tuesday (30/05) the CPO price had fallen 0.56 percent to 2,502 ringgit (approx. USD $584.46) per ton (August 2017 contract) on the Malaysia bourse. So far this year, the CPO price has tumbled 14.48 percent.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) expects Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports to reach 27 million tons in 2017 (up 1.6 percent from realization in the preceding year), or USD $18.90 billion in terms of export value (up 1.7 percent from the preceding year). In other words, Gapki sees very limited growth for Indonesia's CPO exports in 2017. This bleak outlook is caused by sluggish global demand (China may in fact curtail CPO imports), while the recovery of the CPO price is not expected to be significant.
Indonesia kept its export tax for crude palm oil (CPO) shipments at USD $18 per metric ton for March 2017 as the government's March reference CPO price was determined at USD $825.8 per ton, up 1.27 percent (m/m) from the reference price in the preceding month. When this reference CPO price of Indonesia is set below USD $750 per ton, the export tax is scrapped. When the price reaches the range of USD $750 - $800, then Indonesian authorities introduce a USD $3 per ton export tax, followed by a USD $18 per metric ton export tax if the reference price rises to the range of USD $800 - $850 per ton.
Indonesia's Ministry of Trade re-introduces a USD $3 per ton export tax for crude palm oil (CPO) shipments in January 2017 as the government's reference palm oil price exceeded the USD $750 per ton threshold that separates the existence of export duties from zero rates. The government's reference price was set at USD $788.26 per ton for January 2017, said Dody Edward, Director General for Foreign Trade at the Trade Ministry.
In 2015 the crude oil supply glut stemming from OPEC countries and the US shale gas revolution put severe downward pressure on commodity prices, including crude palm oil (CPO). Thanks to the El Nino and La Nina weather phenomenons (and a moratorium on new palm oil concessions) CPO output was curtailed in 2015 and 2016, implying some upward pressure for CPO prices, hence rebounding from a multi-year low of USD $526 per ton in November 2015. In 2016 the CPO price is expected to average USD $670 per ton.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) believes that the crude palm oil (CPO) price will stay between USD $750 and USD $790 per metric ton in October 2016. This prediction comes on the back of several positive sentiments. CPO demand from China, Europe, India and the USA has increased and is able to offset declining CPO demand from Africa and the Middle East. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at Gapki, informed that as a result of strong global CPO demand CPO reserves in Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest producers and exporters of the edible oil, are declining.
Latest Columns Palm Oil Price
The world's two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters - Indonesia and Malaysia - signed an agreement on Saturday (21/11) for the establishment of an intergovernmental palm oil council, called the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries (CPOPC), that aims to control the global CPO supply, stabilize prices, promote sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, and enhance the welfare of oil palm smallholders. Both countries will invest USD $5 million each for the set up of this new council. Its headquarters will be located in Jakarta.
Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters, will cooperate for the development of a special economic zone on Indonesian territory to boost the palm oil industry's downstream industry. Private companies will be given incentives to invest in this zone and develop industries to process CPO into olein, a key ingredient for the production of cosmetics and margarine. Furthermore, both countries plan to establish the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries.
Crude palm oil (CPO) output in Indonesia, the world’s largest CPO producer and exporter, may decline by 20 percent to 27.5 million tons in 2016 due to the negative impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. On a positive note, declining CPO output in Indonesia could provide some support for benchmark Malaysian palm prices that fell to a 6.5-year low of 1,836 ringgit last week.
Although the Indonesian government has already announced that biodiesel subsidies have been raised to IDR 4,000 per liter (from IDR 1,500 per liter in 2014) and bioethanol to IDR 3,000 per liter (from IDR 2,000 last year) - in a move to protect the domestic biofuel industry as production costs exceed market prices amid the low global palm oil prices -, Indonesian biodiesel producers are eager to see the country’s biodiesel price is set based on a different benchmark than the Mean of Platts Singapore (MoPS).
Malaysia, the world’s second-largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer and exporter, will continue its duty-free export tariff for CPO in January 2015 according to information from the Malaysian customs department. Starting from September 2014 Malaysian authorities have implemented a duty-free CPO export policy in an effort to boost global demand and support international CPO prices (which have fallen nearly 20 percent this year). Indonesia, which has seen duty-free CPO shipments since October 2014, is expected to follow suit.
Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.
The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.
The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.
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