In the past couple of weeks unusually dry weather in several parts of Southeast Asia has led to expectation that harvests of agricultural commodities in the region will be disappointing. More and more weather forecasters are convinced that the El Nino weather phenomenon (i.e. periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean) is to return this year causing droughts in the key agricultural-producing countries.

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Indonesia’s new palm oil export levy is to be implemented in late May 2015. Rida Mulyana, Director General of Renewable Energy at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources, stated that President Joko Widodo signed the regulation last night (05/05). The new levy means that a USD $50 (per metric ton) levy is to be imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) exports, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) levy on processed palm oil product exports. Proceeds from these export levies will be used to fund the government’s biodiesel (subsidy) program.

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Due to rising output amid the start of the seasonal increase in production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers, CPO prices may touch a six-year low in 2015. According to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International, there is one factor that may be able to block CPO prices from reaching this low and that is the successful implementation of Indonesia’s biodiesel program as this would absorb a significant portion of Indonesian CPO output hence reducing downward pressures on CPO prices.

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After having decided to introduce export levies for palm oil, the Indonesian government is considering to impose similar measures on rubber, coffee and other commodities in a move to generate capital to invest in the country’s agriculture industry. Per April 2015, a USD $50 (per metric ton) export levy is imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) export levy on processed palm oil export products. Proceeds from these CPO levies will be allocated to finance the government’s biodiesel program.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) shipments from Malaysia climbed 18 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March as firms rushed to export CPO ahead of the (re)introduction of a 4.5 percent CPO export tax in April. This export tax had been scrapped since September 2014 in an effort to boost global CPO demand and prices. A median suggests that CPO production in Malaysia rose 18 percent (m/m) to 1.32 million tons in March, which would mean that palm oil production in Malaysia rose for the first time in seven months.

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The government of Indonesia plans to adjust its crude palm oil (CPO) export tax policy. Chief Economics Minister Sofyan Djalil said that the government is about to impose a fixed levy of USD $50 per metric ton on CPO exports when CPO prices decline below the government’s threshold of USD $750 per ton, implying that it will become impossible for Indonesian palm oil exporters to ship output without charge. Currently, palm oil exporters can export CPO output duty-free as prices have been below the USD $750 threshold since September 2014.

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It is estimated that Indonesia’s export of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives have fallen in February 2015 due to sluggish demand from India and China, the world’s two largest palm oil importers, while the globe’s soybean output increased (soybean oil is a close substitute to palm oil for food and biodiesel uses). Based on a median of six palm oil growers, analysts and official estimates, Indonesian shipments of palm oil (including palm kernel) fell six percent month-to-month (m/m) to 1.7 million metric tons in February.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose about 15 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.8 million tons in January 2015 from the same month last year. However, on a month-on-month (m/m) basis Indonesian CPO exports fell 8 percent in the first month of 2015. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), said that CPO exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy declined in January as demand from nearly all main CPO export markets, particularly China and India, fell at the year-start.

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Due to the Indonesian government’s plan to increase biofuel subsidies from IDR 1,500 per liter to IDR 4,000 per liter - in a move to protect the domestic biofuel industry - palm oil futures climbed the most in 28 months. Amid the world’s current low crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Indonesian biofuel producers have it rough as production costs exceed market prices and therefore requested the government to raise biofuel subsidies to offset losses. If approved by Indonesian authorities then this move should result in higher palm oil demand.

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Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is estimated to reach 31 million tons this year, up from an expected 29.5 million tons in 2014, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI). Similar to last year, CPO production growth is limited due to unconducive weather conditions in the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Moreover, old trees have become less productive, while the younger generation of planted trees have not yet reached an optimal production age.

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The world's two largest crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters - Indonesia and Malaysia - signed an agreement on Saturday (21/11) for the establishment of an intergovernmental palm oil council, called the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries (CPOPC), that aims to control the global CPO supply, stabilize prices, promote sustainable practices in the palm oil industry, and enhance the welfare of oil palm smallholders. Both countries will invest USD $5 million each for the set up of this new council. Its headquarters will be located in Jakarta.

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Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers and exporters, will cooperate for the development of a special economic zone on Indonesian territory to boost the palm oil industry's downstream industry. Private companies will be given incentives to invest in this zone and develop industries to process CPO into olein, a key ingredient for the production of cosmetics and margarine. Furthermore, both countries plan to establish the Council of Palm Oil Producer Countries.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) output in Indonesia, the world’s largest CPO producer and exporter, may decline by 20 percent to 27.5 million tons in 2016 due to the negative impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. On a positive note, declining CPO output in Indonesia could provide some support for benchmark Malaysian palm prices that fell to a 6.5-year low of 1,836 ringgit last week.

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Although the Indonesian government has already announced that biodiesel subsidies have been raised to IDR 4,000 per liter (from IDR 1,500 per liter in 2014) and bioethanol to IDR 3,000 per liter (from IDR 2,000 last year) - in a move to protect the domestic biofuel industry as production costs exceed market prices amid the low global palm oil prices -, Indonesian biodiesel producers are eager to see the country’s biodiesel price is set based on a different benchmark than the Mean of Platts Singapore (MoPS).

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Malaysia, the world’s second-largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer and exporter, will continue its duty-free export tariff for CPO in January 2015 according to information from the Malaysian customs department. Starting from September 2014 Malaysian authorities have implemented a duty-free CPO export policy in an effort to boost global demand and support international CPO prices (which have fallen nearly 20 percent this year). Indonesia, which has seen duty-free CPO shipments since October 2014, is expected to follow suit.

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Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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