Indonesian rice producer Buyung Poetra Sembada will offer 710 million new shares, or 30.08 percent of the company's expanded capital, to the market through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The new shares will be offered at between IDR 420-500 per share, hence aiming to raise up to IDR 355 billion (approx. USD $26 million), in December 2015. Buyung Poetra Sembada is a rice producer known for its Topi Koki brand. Underwriter for the offering is Bahana Securities.

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As agreed last month, this November Indonesia will start importing about 1.5 million tons of rice from Vietnam. Earlier this year, Indonesia had already imported 60,000 tons of rice to stabilize rice prices as a spike in rice prices, which the government blamed on mark-ups by market traders, caused concern. Rice is the main staple food for the Indonesian population, implying that the poorer segments of society spend a relatively large portion of their disposable incomes on rice. This means that rice inflation can cause a surge in poverty.

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On 8 November 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as an analysis of Indonesia's Q3-2015 GDP growth, an inflation update, overviews of Islamic banking and the taxi services industry, a rupiah & stock market update, and more.

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Indonesian state news agency Antara reported that the El Nino weather phenomenon has begun to affect several parts of the country. El Nino, which occurs once every five years on average, causes climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean leading to droughts in Southeast Asia and therefore has a major impact on harvests of agricultural commodities. Moreover, due to the shortage of rain, it is easier for fires to damage the environment. Antara reported that in Banten (West Java) as well as in Riau and Jambi (Sumatra) these effects are felt.

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It is increasingly believed that the El Nino weather phenomenon will hit Indonesia in the next couple of months. Over the past weeks reports already surfaced about unusual dry weather impacting negatively on harvests of agricultural commodities in parts of Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, dry weather traditionally lasts from May to August. However, El Nino may cause warmer conditions and extending these into September hence affecting output in the peak harvest season. This will cut agricultural output and provide inflationary pressure.

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In the past couple of weeks unusually dry weather in several parts of Southeast Asia has led to expectation that harvests of agricultural commodities in the region will be disappointing. More and more weather forecasters are convinced that the El Nino weather phenomenon (i.e. periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America that can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean) is to return this year causing droughts in the key agricultural-producing countries.

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One month ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan, food prices in Indonesia have already began to rise. It is a traditional phenomenon that ahead of the Ramadan (and during this month as well as the subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations) inflation peaks as Indonesians spend more money on food products (for dinner parties in the evening after the daily fasting has ended) and other consumer products such as clothes and shoes. However, some concerns have arisen as a presidential regulation on price controls is yet to come out.

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In order to avert a spike in inflation and social unrest, Indonesian President Joko Widodo may feel forced to allow around 1.5 million metric tons of rice imports in 2015 as domestic prices of rice have been rising on sluggish local harvests. Moreover, an intensifying El Nino is expected to cause dry weather in the months ahead hence further jeopardizing rice productivity. These already tough conditions will be exacerbated by seasonal Islamic celebrations (Ramadan and Idul Fitri) that always trigger increased consumption of food products.

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Today (02/03), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s annual inflation eased further in February. Last month, inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy cooled to 6.29 percent year-on-year (y/y) - from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month - amid falling fuel prices as well as falling food prices (particularly chili) despite inflationary pressures triggered by higher rice prices. On a month-to-month (m/m) basis, Indonesia recorded 0.36 percent of deflation in February, the second straight month of deflation.

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Indonesian inflation is expected to have eased further in February 2015 on lower food prices. One notable exception, however, is rice. Rice prices have soared approximately 30 percent year-on-year (y/y) up to IDR 12,000 per kilogram in February. Higher rice prices have been caused by distribution obstacles for Raskin (‘rice for the poor’) operations in combination with this year’s late harvest season (between March and June). Fluctuation in prices of rice, the staple food of 250 million Indonesians, has a significant impact on inflation in Indonesia.

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There are many important commodities. But if we talk about food commodities, then rice certainly ranks high. This particularly applies to Asia where the populations are dependent on rice as the basic staple food that is consumed every day (and usually up to three times per day).

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Shares of food manufacturer Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food fell almost 25 percent on Friday (21/07) after one of its subsidiaries is suspected of fraud. Allegedly, subsidiary Indo Beras Unggul (a rice trader) sold rice under the premium label, while it actually was the cheaper government-subsidized rice that was sold to consumers. Police raided a warehouse of Indo Beras Unggul in Bekasi (West Java) on Thursday evening (20/07), confiscating more than 1,000 tons of rice.

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Indonesian rice distributor Buyung Poetra Sembada targets to see a 25 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth of sales and net profit in 2017, supported by rising sales of its own brands as well as private labels. The company also targets to collect up to IDR 280 billion (approx. USD $21 million) through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in June 2017. Buyung Poetra Sembada will offer 700 million new shares, equivalent to nearly 30 percent of its enlarged capital, to the public.

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After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.

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Although most Indonesians still prefer to eat rice and noodles as part of their daily diet, an increasing number of Indonesians (particularly those who live in the urban environments and have adjusted to an ‘urban lifestyle’) have started to consume cereals and bread. In fact, Indonesia has become the world’s second-largest wheat importer and ranks among East Asia’s largest cereal importers. The country is dependent on these imports as domestic production of grains is close to zero (the climate doesn’t suit cultivation).

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Inflation in Indonesia is expected to accelerate to 6.80 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015, from 6.38 percent y/y in the previous month, according to the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia). As global oil prices have somewhat recovered from their recent lows, they add inflationary pressures in Indonesia (higher transportation costs). On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to be around 0.35 percent in April. This figure would be in sharp contrast to ‘normal’ April inflation.

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According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded monthly inflation of 0.17 percent in March 2015. It was the first month this year in which Indonesia recorded inflation. In January and February Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.24 percent (m/m) and 0.36 (m/m), respectively. March inflation was primarily the result of administered price adjustments: higher prices of (low-octane) gasoline, diesel and 12-kg LPG canisters. These adjustments were necessary amid rising oil prices and rupiah depreciation.

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Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that Indonesia’s rice harvest will not be severely affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year. The Ministry expects to see a rice production of at least 70 million tons of unmilled rice in 2014, just 1.9 percent down from the 71.3 million tons of rice that was produced last year. Meanwhile, Indonesia may see a record coffee harvest in 2015 as recent rainfall in the important coffee-producing regions have supported the development of cherries.

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